Quick Read
COST earns a BUY at $1,030 as digitally enabled comps jump 21% and AI search drives triple-digit traffic growth at the highest conversion rate of any source.
COST trades at a P/E of 48 versus WMT at 42 and BJ at 22, a premium the market justifies through superior comp and membership fee growth.
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Costco (NASDAQ:COST) has spent years earning its premium multiple through membership renewals, warehouse expansion, and the Kirkland Signature flywheel. The digital, advertising, and pharmacy stack is scaling rapidly behind the scenes, reshaping the growth model.
Costco trades at $961.35 as of the August 18 close. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco is $1,030.46, implying 7.19% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy, and confidence is high at 90%.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
A Choppy Year That Sets Up a Cleaner Setup
Costco is up 11.97% year to date but down 1.26% over the past year, trading well off the $1,094.76 52-week high.
Q3 FY2026, reported on May 28, 2026, delivered EPS of $4.93 on revenue of $70.527 billion, meeting expectations on the bottom line while beating revenue estimates.
Comparable sales rose 9.8% (6.6% adjusted), digitally enabled comps jumped 21.5%, and paid membership hit 82.9 million with worldwide renewal steady at 89.7%. The recent 13% dividend increase reinforces management’s confidence in the cash engine.
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The Case for $1,130 and Higher
The bull scenario pushes Costco to $1,132.94, a 17.85% total return. Retail media and AI search drive the engine. Personalized recommendation carousels contribute just under half a billion dollars of e-commerce sales, and CEO Ron Baccaras says AI search traffic showed triple-digit growth in Q3 at the highest conversion rate of any traffic source.
Pharmacy comp sales rose mid-20s with GLP-1 tailwinds, and gas station volumes hit all-time company records. Analyst consensus target sits at $1,077.31 with 23 Buy ratings against 2 Sell.
What Could Go Wrong
Our bear case lands at $948.22, a -1.37% return. Valuation is stretched: trailing P/E of 48 and forward P/E of 42 leave little room for comp deceleration. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment printed 49.5 in June 2026, recessionary territory.