New poll shows Democrats have advantage in midterm elections
A new New York Times/Siena College poll indicates a potential shift in power ahead of the midterm elections.
Fox – 5 NY
- A new political analysis shows three Texas congressional races are shifting in favor of Democrats.
- The Cook Political Report moved the TX-15 race from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up” due to polling and the celebrity status of Democrat Bobby Pulido.
- The open seat in TX-35 shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” because of significant spending from both parties’ super PACs.
- Despite a strong Republican history, the TX-9 race moved from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Three congressional races in Texas are giving the Republican Party a headache, as a new political analysis shows they are shifting in Democrats’ favor.
The three races in Texas are among 15 U.S. House races nationwide whose ratings have shifted, indicating Republicans are on track to lose the House majority in the midterm elections, according to The Cook Political Report.
The new analysis released on Sept. 25 shows Republicans are losing ground in Texas’ 9th, 15th and 35th congressional districts, weeks before early voting begins on Oct. 19.
Here’s where each race stands and why analysts moved them for Democrats.
Bobby Pulido has pulled even with De La Cruz in TX-15
Incumbent: Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas
Rating: Toss Up
Why: The analysis moved the South Texas race from “Lean Republican” to a toss-up, based on public and private polling showing the race is still tied — or even that Democrat Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer-songwriter, has a lead.
This is a departure from a district that favored Republicans and voted for President Donald Trump by 18 points in 2024 and three points in 2020. De La Cruz won reelection in 2022 by 14 points.
“While the partisanship of the district barely changed after the new lines were drawn, nearly 60% of it is new to De La Cruz,” the analysis said. “High Democratic enthusiasm due to the competitive Senate race is also working in Pulido’s favor; the same polls show (James) Talarico carrying the district.”
The report also said that De La Cruz has struggled to consolidate support among Republicans and conservative-leaning independents who swung hard toward Trump in the last cycle, partly because of Pulido’s celebrity status in the Valley. This allowed him to win over more cross-party support, but it’s also because of the state’s recent redistricting effort in 2025.
Texas’ 35th District near San Antonio moves toward Democrats
Incumbent: Open seat
Rating: Lean Republican
Why: The analysis moved the San Antonio-area congressional race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” because of the money being spent on it and because it’s still developing.
“Democratic deputy sheriff Johnny Garcia and Republican Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz have raised less money than other challengers this cycle,” the analysis said. “But both parties’ super PACs are planning on investing in this race, and it’s hard not to see it as competitive given the statewide dynamics in Texas.”
However, the report said Republicans should still have an advantage, as the district has a sizable Hispanic population (54%) and is less volatile than districts in the Rio Grande Valley.
In 2024, Trump won here by 10 points and by two points in 2020. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, narrowly carried the seat in 2018. The report also said private polling shows De La Cruz, Monica De La Cruz’s brother, has the edge or the race is tied, but many voters in this district remain undecided.
Texas’ 9th District moves off Cook’s solid GOP list
Incumbent: Open seat
Rating: Likely Republican
Why: The analysis said the Houston-area congressional race between Republican Alex Mealer, an Army veteran, and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez is coming down to how much is being spent.
“Republicans aren’t taking this race for granted, and No Going Back PAC, a super PAC funded by MAGA Inc., is sending direct mail to shore up their nominee,” the analysis read. “Democrats’ candidate, Leticia Gutierrez, has very little cash on hand, and it’s hard to see her getting much outside support in Houston’s expensive media market.”
The district also voted for Trump by 20 points in 2024 and nine points in 2020.
However, despite this, The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.