Cook Political Report Finds Democrats Have ‘Multiple Paths’ to Take the Senate
Screenshot via CNN.
The Cook Political Report updated its ratings for the upcoming midterms, predicting that Democrats now have “multiple paths” to take back the Senate majority, especially with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) dragging down Republicans.
The GOP’s grasp on majority control of the House and Senate hangs in the balance this November, and political prognosticators and pollsters have been highlighting several states that are in play, including the Lone Star State, where Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D) is facing off against Paxton to succeed the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
Paxton defeated Cornyn in the primary, but it was a viciously contentious battle that required a runoff. The lengthy GOP primary further burned through Paxton’s campaign funds and put a spotlight on the series of scandals, lawsuits, a bitter divorce from his state senator wife, and other controversies that have dogged him for years. The AG did score President Donald Trump’s endorsement but is still widely viewed as a weaker candidate in the general election due to the seemingly unending parade of messy headlines and the downward drag of Trump and the GOP’s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy.
Fox News updated its Power Rankings earlier this week, moving the Texas Senate race from Lean R to Toss-Up. Nate Silver was even more optimistic for Talarico, granting a “Lean D” rating.
Jessica Taylor with Cook Political Report shared four key races where they had shifted their ratings, all in the Democrats’ favor: Texas Senate (Lean R to Toss Up), Iowa Senate (Lean R to Toss Up), Texas Governor (Solid R to Likely R), and Iowa Governor (Toss Up to Lean D).
Taylor chatted with CNN anchor Dana Bash about the election ratings on Thursday’s episode of Inside Politics.
Bash noted there were only 75 days until the November midterms, describing the majority control of the Senate as being likely determined by nine states. The “brand new analysis” from Cook showed that “Democrats may have a new path to the Senate majority,” said Bash as she introduce Taylor.
The new shifts, Taylor said, mean “there are multiple paths now for Democrats to Senate majority,” so even if they lose tough races in Maine or Michigan, for example, they could still take the Senate.
It was “still a very narrow path” and Cook was now rating the overall Senate majority as a Toss Up, said Taylor. It “still might slightly favor Republicans,” she continued, “but it is an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats.”
North Carolina, where the state’s former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was running against former NC GOP Party Chair Michael Whatley, “still remains the best opportunity for Democrats,” said Taylor, while defending Michigan has become “an increasingly daunting task.” Cook rates the North Carolina Senate race as Lean D and Michigan as Toss Up.
After discussing various factors expected to affect several different Senate races, the discussion turned back to Texas.
“Texas has been the white whale for Democrats,” said Bash, noting Democrats had not won a statewide election in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen for senator in 1988 and Ann Richards for governor in 1990 and asking Taylor what she thought was different this year as opposed to prior attempts, like former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s (D-TX) unsuccessful challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).
“It’s really because of Ken Paxton,” said Taylor. “The Republican nominee is so weak. He is not raising money. This is not who Republicans wanted. This would not be a race — we would not have changed our rating if this were still John Cornyn, as the incumbent, as the Republican nominee.”
“Paxton has so many scandals” and “is so polarizing to Republicans,” Taylor added, that the Talarico campaign is “really targeting Republicans” while Texas Republicans have a “real frustration that Paxton isn’t out there enough, that he’s not doing enough.”
“Talarico right now is the only one that’s been significantly on the air,” she said, but President Donald Trump was supposed to start helping Paxton fundraise, “so we acknowledge that this race might shift back once money starts coming in — but right now, Republicans are arguing about who’s going to pick up the tab in such an expensive state.”
Watch the clips above via CNN.
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