A proposed 10-year U.S. plan for the drought-stricken Colorado River could reduce annual deliveries to Arizona, California and Nevada by up to 3m acre-feet, with cuts evaluated every two years and decisions tied to the “priority of the law of the river.”
When reservoir levels keep plunging toward critical lows, the Colorado River’s next shockwave is already taking shape in federal paperwork. The U.S. government is advancing a 10-year plan that could cut up to 40% of current Colorado River supplies to Arizona, California and Nevada.
At a state meeting on Wednesday. Tom Buschatzke. director of the Arizona department of water resources. laid out details of the Trump administration’s proposal.. The plan would be finalized in June. and the annual amount delivered to the three lower-basin states could be slashed by up to 3m acre-feet.. Those reductions would be evaluated every two years.
Buschatzke said the federal cuts would be carried out either under existing Colorado River law or through agreements among the states.. Federal officials have indicated that water cuts across the three lower-basin states would be based on the “priority of the law of the river.” Under that framework. the 1922 Colorado River Compact gives California the highest priority for water use.
Speaking in plain terms about what that could mean locally. Buschatzke called the proposed federal cuts “sobering.” “That’s us. that’s Arizona. and potentially CAP going to zero. ” he said. referring to water flows on the Central Arizona Project. a canal that transports Colorado River water to central and southern Arizona.
The stakes are broad: the Colorado river supplies water to some 40 million people in the American west. The proposal arrives months after seven states dependent on the river missed a February federal deadline to agree on how water cuts would be divided.
The pressure behind the negotiations has been building for years. The river has lost about 27.8m acre-feet of groundwater in the last 20 years, largely owing to overuse. This year, a record snow drought further exacerbated the situation.
Upstream states have resisted the idea of reductions pushed downward.. Colorado. Utah. Wyoming and New Mexico maintain that California. Arizona and Nevada should carry the burden because those downstream states bear responsibility for the shortages.. The conflict has lingered long enough that Doug Burgum. the US interior secretary. indicated earlier this year that the US Bureau of Reclamation would step in to manage the protracted dispute.
The federal plan also collides with a lower-basin offer already on the table.. Two weeks ago. California. Arizona and Nevada announced a proposal for voluntary water reductions up to 3.25m acre-feet through 2028: Arizona’s water flow would be slashed by 760 acre-feet. California by 440 acre-feet. and Nevada by 50 acre-feet.. Yet it remains unclear whether that voluntary approach will proceed. and it would still require cooperation from state water agencies and the federal government.
Alex Smith. an employee with the US Bureau of Reclamation’s Phoenix office. said the agency is evaluating the risks and benefits of the lower basin states’ plan.. During public comment on Wednesday. Patrick Adams. senior water policy adviser to Katie Hobb. the Arizona governor. said “things are moving very quickly” as the federal proposal advances.
Adams warned that the idea of reductions only in the lower basin was difficult to accept. “The risk of 3m acre-feet of reductions only in the lower basin is something that’s quite alarming to us. So we need to grapple with that,” he said.
The situation is tightening around a repeating sequence: a federal proposal that could impose up to 3m acre-feet in cuts to the lower basin is moving toward a June final decision. while the lower-basin states’ own voluntary reductions hinge on uncertain cooperation and the outcome still depends on how the “priority of the law of the river” is applied.
For now. the plan’s mechanics—whether delivered through existing Colorado River law or via interstate agreements—remain the central fault line.. June is the next date that could convert the current alarm into concrete limits. potentially altering how water flows reach millions across Arizona. California and Nevada.
Colorado River drought water cuts Arizona California Nevada 1922 Colorado River Compact Central Arizona Project US Bureau of Reclamation 3m acre-feet CAP