China’s posture on the widening Iran war ripple has been getting louder, even if much of what Beijing has said so far still sounds carefully measured.
But Xi himself had not made substantial comments until Tuesday, when he said the international rule of law “must be safeguarded.”“It must not be selectively applied or disregarded, nor should the world be allowed to regress to the law of the jungle,” he said during a meeting in Beijing with Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.
The crown prince was just one of multiple foreign dignitaries to visit Beijing in recent days as it doubles down on diplomacy and seizes another opportunity to showcase its contrast with American foreign policy. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, visiting China for the fourth time in as many years, said Tuesday: “I find it very difficult to find other interlocutors, beyond China, who can resolve this situation.”
Sánchez has earned Trump’s ire by refusing to allow the U.S. to use Spain’s airspace or jointly run military bases for the Iran war. Beijing, meanwhile, is trying to thread a needle. It wants to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. ahead of Trump’s own highly anticipated visit next month. The balancing act is more than choreography—it’s also economic, because the longer the conflict drags on, the harder it gets to keep energy security stable.
Though China is better positioned than many of its Asian neighbors to withstand the global energy crisis created by the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, it risks serious damage to its economy and energy security if the war drags on. Beijing is particularly concerned about Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states, where it has major commercial interests. “If the Middle East countries will be just one after another falling into the conflict, then it will be very detrimental to China’s investment in the Middle East,” said Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at China’s Nanjing University. Still, Zhu said, China is not looking to get militarily involved in the Middle East. (You can feel the caution in the way that’s said—like everyone is listening for what’s not promised.)
An intervention “would be a heavy blow to our largely vulnerable relationship” with the U.S., Zhu told Misryoum newsroom reported. U.S. intelligence reporting suggests China is planning to provide new air defense weaponry to Iran in the coming weeks, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. CNN first reported on the U.S. intelligence, a prospect that led Trump to threaten an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Beijing denied having such plans. “The relevant reports are entirely fabricated,” Guo said, adding that China would take “countermeasures” if the U.S. uses the reports as a “pretext” for additional tariffs.
China has long provided a lifeline for heavily sanctioned Iran, which sends about 80% its crude oil exports to China at a discount via a shadow fleet of aging tankers. Iran makes up a small percentage of China’s oil imports overall, however, an imbalance that is seen as giving Beijing unique leverage over Tehran. Very few Chinese ships appear to be transiting the Strait of Hormuz, however, with traffic virtually at a standstill. They include
a U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker that transited the strait Tuesday after departing Sharjah, a United Arab Emirates port that is not subject to the U.S. blockade. MarineTraffic data showed that the Rich Starry, which the Treasury Department sanctioned in 2018 over its dealings with Iran, was the first vessel to pass through the waterway overnight. The ship was one of two tankers that have made U-turns as they approached the Strait of Hormuz before resuming their
transit through the waterway. The Rich Starry also made a U-turn after it passed through the strait, data showed.
If you were standing near a harbor watching logistics play out, the mood would probably feel tense—metal clinks, the dry smell of fuel in the air, all of it moving on a schedule no one controls. “By intensifying pressure on the shadow fleet and Iranian oil routes to China, the Trump administration hopes to make Beijing — Tehran’s largest customer — uncomfortable enough to quietly leverage its influence and push Iran toward curbing its nuclear
program or regional activities,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. But that is easier said than done, she said. China, which has been building up its oil reserves for years, is estimated to have enough to last more than 100 days. It also imports oil from multiple countries, continues to rely heavily on coal and is largely energy self-sufficient, “which cushions China against any single chokepoint in the Gulf or Iranian
supplies,” she said via text message. There’s plenty of cushion, yes—but cushion is not the same as immunity, and Beijing’s diplomacy keeps circling back to one question: how to stay central without becoming directly exposed.
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