Category 4 Hurricane Lowell set to pass south of Hawaii | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

UPDATE: Tuesday, 11:40 p.m.

Hurricane Lowell has doubled in strength over the last 24 hours and is poised to begin moving south of the Hawaiian islands on Wednesday.

At 11 p.m., Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and higher gusts, was centered about 470 miles south-southeast of Hilo and moving west at 12 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles out.

Just 24 hours earlier, Lowell was a strong tropical storm with 70 mph sustained winds.

The storm is expected to remain a Category 4 major hurricane and continue moving west as it passes about 300 miles or more south of Hawaii Wednesday through Friday.

“A westward motion is anticipated during the next several days due to a mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific,” forecasters said. By Sunday, when the storm is far southwest of Kauai, “an upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge, causing Lowell to slow down and take a more northward turn, though there is considerable uncertainty on how sharp that turn might be.”

“Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.”

If it stays on the forecast track through Friday, the greatest impacts to the island will be high surf from the south, breezy tradewinds with up to 55 mph gusts, and numerous trade showers, especially for windward and mauka areas.

However an earlier turn to the north than Sunday could bring more severe conditions to the state.

In the East Pacific, Karina is also a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the National Hurricane Center. At 11 p.m., Karina was about 1,500 miles east-southeast of Hilo, moving west at 12 mph toward the Central Pacific.

Unlike Lowell, Karina is expected to start weakening Thursday over the open ocean. The National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts it will be a tropical storm by Sunday, hundreds of miles northeast of Hilo and moving northwest away from the islands.

Closer to Mexico, Tropical Storm Marie was forecast to become a hurricane Wednesday. At 11 p.m., Marie had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving northwest, away from the Mexican coast, at 1o mph. A turn toward the west-northwest, farther from land, is expected later Wednesday and continue through Friday.

By Sunday, Marie is expected to still be a Category 1 hurricane but moving northwest and no threat to land, forecasters said.

5 p.m.

Lowell, now a Category 4 hurricane, is growing stronger and remains on track to pass south of Hawaii this week but its path is uncertain this weekend.

At about 5 p.m. today, Lowell was located about 500 miles south-southeast of Hilo. Lowell was traveling west at 10 mph with higher maximum sustained winds near 130 mph with higher gusts. The hurricane is forecast to move west to west-northwest over the next several days. Lowell is still forecast to remain a major hurricane over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

CPHC said Lowell’s track becomes more uncertain by Sunday, the end of the forecast period when the powerful hurricane is currently expected to be several hundred miles southwest of Kauai.

“An upper-level trough approaching from the west is forecast to move north of the Hawaiian Islands, weakening the aforementioned ridge,” according to the latest forecast. “This evolution will cause Lowell to decelerate and begin turning toward the northwest or north late in the period.”

Meanwhile, Category 4 Hurricane Karina is gaining strength over the open Pacific Ocean.

At about 5 p.m. today, Karina was located about 1,385 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Karina was moving west at 12 mph with increased maximum sustained winds of 140 mph with higher gusts. Karina is expected to continue in a westward to west-northwestward motion and gradually weaken over the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

“During the weekend, a turn to the northwest seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and the cyclone approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii,” according to the forecast.

Farther out in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie is growing stronger and expected to become a hurricane Wednesday. Marie was located about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Marie was moving northwest at 9 mph with increased maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. Marie is expected to turn west-northwest on Wednesday and continue in that motion through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center.

2 p.m.

Lowell has strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane and is rapidly intensifying as it remains on track to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

At about 2 p.m., Lowell was located about 520 miles southeast of Hilo, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph with higher gusts. Lowell is moving west near 10 mph and expected to travel west to west-northwest over the next several days. Lowell is forecast to get stronger and remain a major hurricane over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

“Lowell remains within a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, and low wind shear,” according to the forecast. “Lowell is likely to continue strengthening, and remain a major hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period.”

11 a.m.

Rapidly strengthening Hurricane Lowell is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday as it continues on a path to track south of Hawaii this week.

At 11 a.m., Lowell was about 535 miles southeast of Hilo, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and higher gusts, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Lowell was moving west-northwest near 10 mph and expected to continue traveling west to west-northwest over the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds outward up to 90 miles.

“Warm water temperatures and weak vertical shear should continue along Lowell’s path for at least the next 5 days,” according to the latest CPHC forecast. “Lowell will likely strengthen to a major hurricane over the next 24 hours. It is quite possible that Lowell could then maintain major hurricane strength through the next 5 days.”

Forecasters said that by about Sunday, when Lowell is expected to be hundreds of miles southwest of Kauai, the storm could start a turn to the northwest or north. “For this reason, interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor Lowell’s progress,” they said.

Farther out in the Eastern Pacific, Karina remains a Category 4 hurricane and is expected to gradually weaken over the next several days.

At about 11 a.m., Karina was about 1,330 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and higher gusts. Karina was moving west at near 12 mph and is expected to continue in a westward to west-northwestward motion over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Karina is expected to enter the Central Pacific by Friday as a weakening Category 1 hurricane, moving northwest. “There is high confidence that the system will pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands,” NHC forecasters said this morning.

The National Weather Service in Honolulu said “breezy tradewinds today will become strong and gusty as early as tomorrow afternoon” and through Friday as Lowell passes south of the state. Showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight through early-morning hours each day, forecasters said.

“The forecast remains uncertain for Labor Day weekend, with the potential for Lowell and Karina in the vicinity of the state,” they said.

In addition to Lowell and Marie, Tropical Storm Marie just off the coast of Mexico is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. At 11 a.m., Marie was about 510 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Marie was moving northwest at near 8 mph and is expected to turn toward the west-northwest Wednesday and continue in that direction through Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles mostly from the east and southeast of the center.

While the direct impacts to Hawaii from Lowell and Karina are currently expected to be limited to higher surf, gusty tradewinds and increased windward and mauka showers, Honolulu city officials are reminding the public to be prepared and to monitor the CPHC and NWS forecasts over the next week.

“We continue to ask everyone to stay prepared throughout hurricane season,” said Mayor Rick Blangiardi in a written statement. “We have three active systems in the Pacific right now, and while the current tracks are generally favorable for us, we know forecasts can change. As we head into the Labor Day weekend, this is a good opportunity to check your emergency supplies, replenish anything you used during our recent storms and make sure your family has a plan. We still have three months left in hurricane season, and we need everyone to remain ready.”

Residents are encouraged to:

>> Ensure flashlights, batteries, portable chargers and radios are working.

>> Review family emergency and communication plans.

>> Check and replenish emergency kit, including supplies, food, water and medications.

>> If leaving home during a storm is required, know where to go.

>> And sign up for the city’s HNL Alert to receive emergency information.

EARLIER COVERAGE

Lowell intensified into a hurricane early today southeast of Hawaii and is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major Category 3 storm by Wednesday night as it tracks south of the island chain, weather officials said.

At 5 a.m., Hurricane Lowell was about 575 miles southeast of Hilo, packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and moving west-northwest at 12 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more extend outward up to 15 miles from Lowell’s center, while tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more reach up to 90 miles.

Forecasters said that “rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Lowell is expected to become a major hurricane by Wednesday night.”

The storm’s core is projected to pass a little over 300 miles south of the Big Island between Wednesday night and Thursday, with maximum sustained winds peaking around 125 mph.

Even though the center of the storm is forecast to stay far out at sea, the difference in air pressure between the storm and a weather system to the north will cause strong winds across the islands, weather officials said.

National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu said tradewinds could become strong and gusty starting Wednesday afternoon through Friday, with local wind gusts exceeding 50 mph.

The Alenuihaha Channel and Maalaea Bay remain under a small craft advisory through 6 p.m. Wednesday, while tropical storm conditions are expected in southern offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles.

“Swells generated by Lowell are likely to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands beginning on Wednesday,” forecasters said, noting the swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along south and east shores.

Over the weekend, the forecast becomes less certain because a high-altitude disturbance north of Hawaii could slow Lowell down and push it toward the northwest.

Forecasters are also tracking two other tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Karina was centered about 1,280 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and moving west at 12 mph as of 5 a.m. Karina remains a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from Karina’s center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

The system is expected to steadily weaken over cooler waters as it moves toward the Central Pacific, potentially reaching about 600 miles east of the Big Island by Saturday, weather officials said.

A third cyclone, Tropical Storm Marie, also formed today off the coast of Mexico. Marie was about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving northwest at 9 mph with 45 mph winds at 4 a.m.

Marie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday night as it moves over warm waters in the East Pacific, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Officials advise Hawaii residents and marine interests to monitor forecast updates throughout the week.