A once-chaotic California gubernatorial primary that looked capable of breaking norms has now largely settled into familiar territory: Xavier Becerra, once an afterthought, appears positioned for the November runoff while the state’s streak of male governors c
By the time the ballots started to add up in Tuesday’s California gubernatorial primary, the race that had felt wide-open began to snap into the kind of outcome the state has leaned on for decades: steady, experienced politics—at least on the Democratic side.
Three months earlier, Xavier Becerra seemed like an afterthought. He, along with several other weak-polling candidates, was conspicuously excluded from a scheduled debate at USC. By Tuesday, the Democrat appeared to have punched his ticket to November. The contrast was stark enough to echo a familiar California political story: Gray Davis. too. came from far behind to win the last gubernatorial primary held at this level of uncertainty and suspense—back in 1998.
Like Davis, Becerra’s political persona could be marketed as a sleep aid. No one mistook either of them for a showman like Arnold Schwarzenegger. But in California’s mood—after the overnight implosion of Eric Swalwell’s scandal-scarred campaign—Becerra’s even-keeled demeanor read like a welcome antidote to the nonstop political noise radiating out of Washington. D.C.
California’s voting history helps explain why. The state has never elected a female governor, and November is not expected to change that. It also has typically favored experience over youth, and the bland and steady over razzle and dazzle. For all the speculation about which party could be shut out of the November runoff. the November matchup now looks likely to be the most conventional version of California politics: a Democrat versus a Republican.
Money also showed up loud—then didn’t buy what it used to.
Tom Steyer. a hedge fund billionaire turned Democratic activist. sank more than $215 million—described as a record—into his gubernatorial bid after spending nearly $350 million in a failed 2020 try for president. With roughly 60% of the vote counted. Steyer was running an unimpressive third. hoping that a lopsided surge of still-to-be-counted ballots would push him into the top two.
Half a billion dollars. the piece notes. comes with a price tag that can feel less like a breakthrough than a costly “Meh.” California has repeatedly rejected money-bag candidates for governor and the U.S. Senate—a pattern stretching back more than half a century. Even with the additional millions Steyer is positioned to spend, he would enter the runoff as a distinct underdog.
Former airline executive Al Checchi is brought up in that comparison. alongside Garry South. who ran Davis’ successful 1998 campaign against the free-spending Steyer of his day. South said voters don’t find “these filthy rich people” relatable—people who “don’t have to deal with the kind of financial struggles that people have in connection with their daily lives.”.
Steyer’s campaign, the argument continues, has been relentlessly negative. That meant besieged voters could expect many more ugly months of brutality on airwaves, on computer screens, and in mailboxes. The only clear winners, the narrative suggests, would be TV station managers and political consultants cashing Steyer’s super-sized checks.
There was a moment, though, when even that kind of money couldn’t bend the outcome. The fear that Democrats might be shut out of the November runoff helped drive a voter response that became its own engine.
With a large pack of Democrats running and just two serious Republican contenders. Democratic partisans worried that their fractured vote could let Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco nab both spots in Tuesday’s top-two primary. Much of the panic was fueled by polls showing Hilton and Bianco atop the field. But no candidate ever had more than a paltry 20% support. leaving the race more like a multi-candidate tie than a clean story.
As the worst-case scenario felt close, voters who “normally couldn’t tell a ‘jungle primary’ from a jungle gym,” as the piece puts it, began watching the mechanics. Democrats held onto their ballots longer than usual, waiting to see which candidate looked strongest at the end.
Paul Mitchell. a Sacramento political data expert who developed a popular online tool handicapping various election scenarios. said the decision-making shifted beyond party insiders. “They’re talking to friends and families. It was kind of crazy.” He described how the “decision matrix” wasn’t just political experts—it was people outside the political world hearing that there might be two Republicans.
In the end, the Democratic contest became less a free-for-all and more a self-fulfilling prophecy. Becerra was viewed as the candidate with the best chance of advancing to November, so many voters flocked to him—ensuring he would.
Now, the wait is not who advances among Democrats. It’s who Becerra will face: Hilton or Steyer.
The primary also sharpened another California contradiction—one about gender that refuses to move.
More than 30 states have elected female governors, and a few have elected them multiple times. Come January, California—described as feeling “oh-so-cutting edge on oh-so-many things”—will install the 41st governor in its unbroken line of male governors.
The article points to what might have been. Had Kamala Harris jumped into the contest, the former vice president, U.S. senator, and California attorney general would have been a prohibitive favorite to break the streak. When she opted not to run. several female contenders remained in play—but Toni Atkins and Betty Yee eventually fell by the wayside. leaving just Katie Porter.
Porter. the former Orange County congresswoman and whiteboard wizard. entered as a second-time statewide candidate after a failed 2024 bid for U.S. Senate. With wide name recognition and a national fundraising base, she started as one of the front-runners for governor. Yet a needlessly combustible TV interview and a leaked video showing her profanely snapping at an aide fed persistent questions about her temper and temperament.
Mindy Romero. director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC. said the problem isn’t simply campaign moments—it’s expectations. “There’s expectations that are put on a woman” that are different from the male candidates face. Romero described how toughness in a man can be seen as abrasive. while similar behavior in a woman can come across as off-putting. Acting with authority can also look overbearing. “A woman’s version of a leader still has to be at least somewhat feminine,” Romero said. “That’s what our society expects. So you have to be tough, but do it with a smile.”.
The article acknowledges the contradiction: California has already made major national firsts on gender in other political roles. It became the first state in history to send two women to serve at the same time in the U.S. Senate and is home to the first female House speaker, San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi. Yet in Sacramento, within the governor’s suite, the highest glass ceiling remains intact.
Then there was youth—another California instinct that keeps crashing into reality.
Mayor Matt Mahan ruled out a run for governor last fall at a dinner in downtown San José, after a plate of enchiladas, saying he “genuinely want[s] to make our city better,” loved the job, and already had “a wonderful marriage” and “two wonderful kids.”
The piece argues that he should have stuck to those words. Instead, Mahan and his wealthy Silicon Valley backers talked themselves into a rushed and premature campaign that never became competitive. The comparison offered is sharp: investors might have thought they were getting in on the ground floor of the next Amazon. but Mahan’s candidacy was like Pets.com—a famous e-commerce flop meant to embody the froth of the dot.com bubble.
Still, the story resists writing him off. It points back to Pete Wilson. another youthful big-city mayor who ran an ill-considered campaign for governor decades ago. finishing a distant fourth and failing to muster even double-digit support. That didn’t end his career; four years later, Wilson was elected to the U.S. Senate en route to two terms as California governor.
At 43, Mahan has “plenty of highway ahead,” with political potential that could still bear fruit. His time may yet come.
For now, though, Tuesday’s primary delivered a result that feels less like a revolution than a return. In a state that still hasn’t elected a woman governor. the Democratic nominee that seemed unreachable just months ago has arrived—while the question of November has narrowed to a single opponent. and the familiar rules of California politics have reasserted themselves.
California gubernatorial primary Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Steve Hilton Chad Bianco Kamala Harris Katie Porter gender politics money in politics jungle primary