California’s slow-count puts Dem hopes on hold

California’s long – As California’s gubernatorial jungle-primary count drags past midday with the governor’s race still rated “too close to call,” Democrats face a familiar risk: results can shift for days. Meanwhile, beyond California, Democrats are eyeing a Senate opening in Io

Wednesday midday brought a familiar kind of tension for California politics: the ballots were still being counted, the race was still not settled, and the governor’s seat still hung in the balance.

With 58% of votes in. the California governor’s jungle primary remained rated “too close to call.” Republican Steve Hilton held 28% of the vote. while establishment Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra led Democrats with 25%. Tom Steyer, the billionaire climate activist supported by progressives, was at 20%, leaving his path to the November final looking narrow.

For Democrats, the headline number was not the lead—it was the slowness. The count’s pace has long been a defining feature of California elections, and it has a habit of changing the story people think they’re watching on election night.

That’s what makes the debate inside Democratic circles feel so personal this year. Gavin Newsom has spent years leading what John Nichols described as the national resistance to Trump, especially on gerrymandering. Whether Becerra can carry that kind of role—public-facing. relentless. and built for the spotlight—was already being weighed even while the votes were still coming in.

Nichols, speaking on an episode that also looked beyond California, suggested that Becerra is a different kind of Democrat. He characterized Becerra as a “managerial Democrat. ” someone with deep ties to corporate and business interests. and not a firebrand in the same vein as Newsom. who Nichols described as taking over social media and appearing on every TV show.

But the more immediate issue wasn’t ideology—it was arithmetic and turnout. Nichols pointed to the way California’s long vote counting has historically shifted outcomes once more ballots are included. Late ballots can keep moving numbers even after early results stabilize.

He warned against assuming California is “settled” simply because some early totals look decisive.

The logic is straightforward: progressive voters often wait until later deadlines to mail their ballots. Nichols said. and once the full count finishes. liberal Democrats tend to do better. In his description of how this usually plays out. Steyer could “tick upward” and Hilton could “tick downward” as remaining ballots are added.

That’s why the phrase “too close to call” still feels like more than a procedural label. It’s a statement about what California has done before—how races that looked one way quickly enough can end up changing shape once late-arriving ballots are included within the state’s prescribed timeframe.

Nichols offered a reminder from past presidential years as proof of how California’s pace can redraw perception: in 2020. a national presidential race that looked close on election night expanded into a landslide for Joe Biden as California’s count completed. He said the same kind of collapse happened in 2016 and later in 2024. when what looked like a much bigger Trump win shrank into a closer result.

The same long-count uncertainty is now in the air for another California race that people may be trying to declare early. In Los Angeles mayoral politics. Karen Bass. the incumbent. has been declared the winner and will face Republican Spencer Pratt in a November runoff. Nichols said Los Angeles is “a blue city. ” which he expects will make another Democratic term likely. with Bass the likely winner.

Still, he didn’t brush past the friction Bass faced in this election. Nichols pointed to the electorate’s preoccupation—with blame aimed in part at Bass—for the fire department’s inadequate response to the devastating fires in the Palisades, along with the persistence of homelessness.

And he argued Bass has not been appreciated enough for another role: what he described as her brave. leading part in resisting Trump. Nichols recalled that Los Angeles was the first city Trump targeted for an ICE onslaught because LA has more immigrants than any other place. and he credited Bass with setting an example for other mayors.

Even with Bass seemingly favored, Nichols cautioned that Los Angeles, too, faces a long count. He said there is a third candidate in the race described as a progressive contender: Nithya Raman, a DSA member. Whether Raman draws enough support to affect the final sequencing remains tied to how the vote counting plays out.

Across the country, the political calendar looks different—faster, sharper, and tied to Senate math that Democrats can’t afford to miss.

The national picture Nichols described was blunt: Democrats are likely to win control of the House, but the real battle is for the Senate. Democrats need at least four Senate seats to gain control, with five viewed as “a lot better.” Iowa has emerged as one possibility.

In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst decided not to run for reelection, clearing a path for a Democratic bid. Iowa, Nichols reminded viewers, was once a swing state and voted for Obama twice. More recently it has solidified into a red state: Trump won two years ago by 13 points. and Iowa has Republican governors for the last 15 years.

The contrast is striking in the congressional delegation. Nichols said all six of Iowa’s congressional representatives are Republicans.

But this year, he said, could be the moment that starts to change, driven in part by what he described as voter frustration over Trump’s economic policies.

The Democratic nominee emerging from the Tuesday Senate primary is Josh Turek. Nichols described Turek as “probably the Senate candidate in the whole country” and said he is a Paralympic gold medalist and an athlete whose personal life has demanded courage and strength.

Nichols also framed Turek’s political background as unusually compelling. Turek stepped into an Iowa state Senate race that Nichols said wasn’t easy and won it through what he described as sheer grit—going door to door and doing the hard work of campaigning. Nichols said Turek has been an active member of the Iowa legislature.

Then came the opening at the federal level, following Ernst’s decision not to seek reelection after—Nichols said—she got into trouble by saying things that weren’t popular with Iowans.

Nichols said Turek stepped up early as an alternative, calling him a candidate who shows political skills and courage “which you don’t always see in Democrats.” He argued Iowa could become the state where Democrats don’t just even the Senate, but potentially go “over the top” for a majority.

That race, Nichols acknowledged, will not be easy. Even as Iowa has turned more Republican. Democrats have “still held their own” in recent years—winning and losing congressional seats and holding a Senate seat “until not that long ago.” Nichols also said Iowa currently has one statewide elected official who is Rob Sand. who is now the Democratic nominee for governor.

He painted Sand as someone who brings both recognition and coalition-building skill. Nichols said Sand has run from the start on populist issues while also reaching out to Republicans, calling it a “genius move” because Republicans came out of their primary divided.

That division is tied to how the Iowa Republican ticket formed after Tuesday’s primary.

Nichols explained that Republican nominee for governor, Rob Sand, will face Randy Feenstra—described as Trump-backed—after Feenstra lost an even further-right primary challenger named Zach Linn.

In Nichols’s telling. Linn’s campaign succeeded because he had enough money to mount a serious run. and because the Iowa Republican battle has long been a conflict between mainstream conservatives and an extreme right that sometimes operates outside party boundaries. He said the past has shown that primary winners from outside the mainstream can be viable. and he treated Linn’s victory as part of that pattern.

But he also said Linn’s pitch was distinctive. Nichols described Linn’s messaging as being close to “Make America healthy again,” comparing it to a Robert F. Kennedy-style frame, and he said Linn drew support from that community as well as from religious right and social right groups.

Nichols said the campaign also included a critique of corporate agriculture and pesticides—issues Nichols described as controversial in Iowa.

Even so, Nichols warned that Linn’s positions may be so extreme that they would unsettle mainstream Republicans heading into November, along with what he called personality fights among factions.

He left the door open to a scenario where Iowa could elect a Democratic governor. a Democratic senator. at least two Democratic members of the U.S. House, gains in the state legislature—and shift the state back toward the “purple lane” of American politics. Nichols even suggested it could someday be talked about as a competitive presidential state in 2028.

The House races are already feeding that possibility.

Nichols and the host discussed three Iowa districts where Democrats are pursuing flips. In Iowa’s Third District—Des Moines, southern and central Iowa—Sara Trone Garriott is running. She describes herself as “a Lutheran minister who defeats Republican men. ” and Nichols noted she had defeated three different Republican men in her campaigns for the state legislature.

In the area around Iowa City and Davenport—labeled Iowa One—Christine Bohannan is seeking a seat. She grew up in a mobile home and is now a law professor at the University of Iowa. The discussion noted she lost that race two years ago by about 800 votes.

In Iowa Two—Cedar Rapids and Dubuque—Lindsay James is the Democratic candidate. Nichols said she is a Presbyterian pastor and served in the Iowa House multiple times.

Nichols said the three women could win and framed it as a significant political development because Iowa has been sending Democrats to Congress in recent years. He argued the key is not novelty—these are not candidates who simply decided to run for Congress—but experience in their districts. saying each has been active for a while and has run ahead of her own ticket.

He also connected electoral odds to policy consequences. saying Trump’s farm policy—centered on tariffs and also built with a “disregard for rural hospitals and for a lot of other concerns of rural America”—could shift voting in areas where Trump did very well. Nichols argued Democrats could build a broader model if they find a way to reach rural Iowa.

Another potential flip, discussed on the program, is not in Iowa but in New Jersey.

Nichols said New Jersey’s Seventh District is a super competitive district that could become a place where a Democratic nominee beats Republican Tom Kean. Nichols pointed to New Jersey trending Democratic up and down the ballot. especially after last year’s gubernatorial election delivered a “huge win” for the Democrat.

He also said Kean has been largely “off radar” for months. not holding town meetings. and that there are reports and assumptions about personal challenges—without specifying details. Nichols framed the issue as voter dissatisfaction with engagement: even if Republicans previously appreciated their congressman. he suggested they could vote for someone more active in the district.

Nichols also contrasted Kean with the type of Republican politics shaped by the Trump era. He said Kean was historically a moderate Republican. and that the Trump agenda has done “tremendous damage” to moderate Republicans by forcing them to go along with Trump’s program. Nichols said Trump’s agenda is very unpopular in New Jersey, creating additional room for a flip.

Outside the primaries, the most emotionally charged discussion was about Maine’s Senate race.

Nichols said Democrats cannot take control of the Senate without defeating Susan Collins in Maine—the only state that voted for Kamala Harris while still having a Republican incumbent. The Democratic candidate Nichols described is Graham Plattner. an anti-establishment. working-class oyster farmer and progressive who has never run for anything before.

Plattner’s campaign has been marked, Nichols said, by being “in and out of various kinds of trouble,” and this week brought another burst. He said The Wall Street Journal revealed “sexually explicit texts with several women” who were not Plattner’s wife.

The host pressed the question of whether such allegations are disqualifying, and whether Democrats should turn against him. Nichols responded in a way that tried to keep the discussion anchored to what has been presented. He said there is no hint that any of the women who received the texts said they felt threatened or abused or taken advantage of or victimized. and he said no one is complaining about receiving the messages.

He said Plattner’s wife has come out as a strong supporter of his campaign despite the discovery of the texts, arguing that Plattner remains in play.

Nichols described his on-the-ground impression of Plattner’s campaign. saying he has seen Plattner campaigning in Maine with Troy Jackson. who is running a populist campaign for governor. Nichols said Plattner has “meticulously” gone to nearly every town in Maine and held evening-long town hall meetings that have measurable proportions of attendees from each town. with open questions and a back-and-forth.

He said questions about Plattner’s past have come up at those meetings, and that Plattner has addressed them.

Nichols predicted Plattner will get through next Tuesday’s Maine primary and become the nominee. He said Chuck Schumer. who Nichols described as not having been a fan for quite a long time. is now supportive of Plattner. Nichols also said early polling suggests Plattner remains a favorite with many Maine voters.

Susan Collins, Nichols said, is desperate to retain her seat and will likely run a brutal campaign. But he also said the campaign would likely have been brutal against any opponent.

The underlying message from the day’s discussion was that for Democrats. the political ground is shifting in more than one direction at once: in California. the key question is whether late-count dynamics will redraw the governor’s race; elsewhere. the Senate map depends on openings created by retirements and on whether candidates can hold attention through the kind of scrutiny that comes with national stakes.

And for the candidates trying to become the story of this cycle—Becerra in California, Josh Turek in Iowa, Plattner in Maine—the lesson of the Tuesday primaries is the same one California has already taught again and again.

The count doesn’t stop just because people want it to.

California gubernatorial primary Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton Tom Steyer jungle primary long vote count Iowa Senate Joni Ernst Josh Turek Rob Sand Susan Collins Maine Senate Graham Plattner New Jersey 7th district Tom Kean Rebecca Bennett