California vote – From Los Angeles to Orange County, California’s postelection vote-counting delays—especially in mail-in-heavy races—have kept results out of reach long after election night. In the Los Angeles mayoral battle, early leads have flipped, and officials say hundred
The morning after polls closed in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral primary. developer Rick Caruso looked like he’d found the kind of runaway advantage that ends political arguments fast. With early results showing him ahead by 5 percentage points—42% to then-U.S. Rep. Karen Bass’s 37%—Caruso called the initial numbers “a victory story.”.
But the story didn’t end there. As the vote count continued, the lead slipped away. Two weeks after election day, with all votes tabulated, Bass had overtaken him, winning with 43% of the vote to Caruso’s 36%.
That kind of reversal is exactly what voters are confronting again in California now. where tight races can remain impossible to call even when early returns seem clear-cut. The governor’s race still has not been called. despite Republican Steve Hilton being the top voter-getter and Democrat Xavier Becerra holding second place since election night.
And in Los Angeles, the question of who will challenge Bass in the mayoral election remains unsettled: reality TV personality Spencer Pratt is in second place, while L.A. City Councilmember Nithya Raman is in third.
At this stage, Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist, put the frustration bluntly. “Everybody has an opinion and very few facts” about what the results will be. Murphy added that “nobody in politics wants to be patient,” saying California has “adopted a system that’s slow and deliberate.”
The wait is not unique to Los Angeles. Other contests—especially in Orange County’s highly competitive congressional districts and in L.A. City Council races—have also been decided after election day as late-counted mail-in ballots shifted margins.
In November 2024’s race for the 47th Congressional District, Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh were separated by just over 1,000 votes on election night. Baugh led at the time. But the final outcome flipped as more ballots were counted: Min ended up winning by about 10,000 votes.
A similar pattern played out in Congressional District 45, where Democrat Derek Tran faced the then-incumbent Michelle Steel. The winner wasn’t determined until Nov. 27. Tran won by just over 650 votes.
Even the 2022 L.A. City Council race between then-incumbent Gil Cedillo and community activist Eunisses Hernandez turned on late movement. On election day, Cedillo led comfortably with 56% of the vote. Two weeks later, the totals shifted—Hernandez finished in the lead with 54% to Cedillo’s 46%.
Experts say confirming the final spot in the mayor’s race could still take several more days. depending on how close the contest becomes and how many ballots remain to be counted. As of Thursday morning, officials estimated that only about 62% of ballots from the city of Los Angeles had been counted.
Pete Peterson, dean of the School of Public Policy at Pepperdine University, said the outstanding portion could still matter. Of the 40% remaining, he said, “there could still be a chance that there would be a significant return of more left-leaning votes,” which would benefit Raman.
Late-counted ballots tend to favor Democrats. he and others pointed out. because Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail. California’s mail-in system also allows ballots to be accepted up to seven days after election day as long as they are postmarked by the Tuesday deadline after polls close.
This year. Democratic voters may be holding on to their ballots longer amid an unsettled governor’s race. Peterson said. which could further boost the late-counting effect. Peterson also described how the math of a three-candidate field in the mayoral race changes the range of outcomes: “The major difference between ’26 and ‘22. you had two candidates versus three. ” he said. “Mathematically, it’s a different situation.”.
Three experts who were interviewed said Raman still had a chance to pass Pratt. but the conditions for a comeback appear narrow. Peterson said the remaining ballots, even if they lean heavily left, would likely be split between Raman and Bass. For Raman to overtake Pratt into second place. Peterson said. she would need to outperform not only Pratt but also Bass to make a comeback possible. He called her chances of ousting Pratt “dastardly remote … but it’s not impossible.”.
In L.A. County, the registrar of voters reported late Wednesday that officials estimate they still have about 713,000 ballots to process and count. The estimate primarily covers vote-by-mail ballots postmarked by election day but not yet received. along with ballots returned to drop boxes and vote centers on election day.
That figure is a countywide estimate and includes a larger pool than the city voters who will decide the mayor’s race. Kamy Akhavan. managing director at the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. described a theory circulating among pundits—that ballots submitted later will be more progressive and more friendly to Raman. Even so. he said. “whether there is enough of them to tilt the outcome in favor of Raman taking a second place position. right now. it seems unlikely.”.
Murphy, the Republican strategist, said Pratt is drawing from the same Los Angeles electorate that supported President Trump, and could pick up a few more voters who are angry about the state of the city. Still, he said Pratt’s lead might shrink once more Democrats’ ballots are counted.
Murphy laid out the tension in plain terms: “Nithya, she’ll probably go up because there’s going to be a fair amount of Democratic votes and she’ll get her chunk, but will she catch Pratt? You can extrapolate it either way.”
There’s precedent for those shifting lines. During the Bass-Caruso fight in November 2022, election-night results wavered between the two candidates. On election night, Caruso led with 51.25% of the counted vote to Bass’s 48.75%. Caruso stayed ahead as the week dragged on, though his lead continued to shrink. By Saturday, Bass had pulled ahead with 50.78% to Caruso’s 49.22%.
Eight days after the polls closed, the Associated Press called the race for Bass. At that point she led Caruso by six points with 53% of the vote. The final tally had Bass winning almost 55%.
California officials have worked to dispel rumors and falsehoods about slow election results. emphasizing that accurate counting and confirmation—especially for mail-in ballots—takes time. Mail-in ballots are scrutinized: workers verify signatures and give voters a chance to remedy problems if a signature doesn’t match. a process that takes time.
Akhavan said workers use that level of care both because it is protocol and because it could change outcomes. “We’ve seen some elections in Southern California decided by single digits,” he said. “And that just means this is going to take time. That can be very frustrating, even annoying, to Angelenos.”.
In Los Angeles—and in other parts of the state—politics is now being decided in slow motion. The numbers that arrive early can look decisive. The numbers that arrive later can rewrite them. And for voters who just want a clear winner, the wait can feel like its own second election.
California elections Los Angeles mayoral race vote counting delays mail-in ballots Nithya Raman Spencer Pratt Karen Bass Rick Caruso Steve Hilton Xavier Becerra