below-average hurricane – A new outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season points to fewer storms overall, with a likely role for El Niño warming Gulf waters. But meteorologists and forecasters warn that “lucky” outliers still happen—and powerful hurricanes can still strike, includ
For people in Florida, the message arriving with the new hurricane outlook is sharp: fewer storms are likely, but complacency would be the wrong move.
Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there was a high chance of a strong El Niño. If it develops as expected, she said it could boost water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. While she expects the season to bring fewer storms overall. she warned that dangerous storms don’t always follow the average.
“We probably won’t have as many number of storms as previous years. However, some storms get lucky,” Jiang said. “We see outliers all the time, especially with hurricanes. So I believe Floridians, we need to get prepared.”
Jiang’s caution lands against the backdrop of official forecasting that points to reduced activity. The National Weather Service outlook—issued under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. which oversees the National Weather Service—focused on overall seasonal activity rather than the timing or location of landfalls. NOAA said landfall predictions depend on short-lived weather patterns.
NOAA’s numbers describe a season that is more likely to underperform than outpace previous years: a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Colorado State University forecasters reached a similar conclusion, predicting a below-average season with 13 named storms. Their forecast included six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
They also pointed to where the water stands. The Colorado State forecasters said waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal. while the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic were slightly cooler than normal. Warmer Atlantic waters tend to lower atmospheric pressure and create a more unstable atmosphere—conditions that can boost hurricane activity.
Even with those factors. forecasters tied the risk to the specific question most residents care about: whether a hurricane could reach land. Colorado State’s forecast put the probability of a hurricane making landfall at 32 percent for the entire US coastline. For the US East Coast—including the Florida peninsula—the probability was 15 percent. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, it was 20 percent.
Last year, hurricanes did not make landfall in the US. But the warning is not hypothetical. Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a category 5 storm. Melissa caused nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
As Alessi emphasized, that kind of impact can still occur even when seasonal averages look mild. “Just because it’s a below-average season doesn’t mean a very powerful hurricane won’t make landfall in the United States,” he said.
The 2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names list is already in place, with storms expected to cycle through: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo; Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana; Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred.
Within the forecasts, one thread runs through the details. NOAA’s seasonal outlook describes overall activity—not where hurricanes will strike—and Colorado State’s risk estimates are built around landfall probabilities. Jiang’s comments add the human reality that weather doesn’t always behave like a spreadsheet: even seasons that trend quieter can produce outliers. In this setup, the safest assumption is preparation that doesn’t depend on the forecast landing perfectly on average.
2026 Atlantic hurricane season El Niño Florida hurricane preparedness NOAA National Weather Service Colorado State University hurricane forecast Atlantic tropical cyclone names Gulf of Mexico hurricane landfall probability Hurricane Melissa