Becerra leads – In the final Emerson College Polling California survey before Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary, former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra holds a growing lead at 28%, with billionaire Tom Steyer at 22% and conservative commentator Steve Hilton at 21%. The ra
On the final weekend before Tuesday’s California gubernatorial primary, the numbers landed like a warning and a promise at the same time: Xavier Becerra is ahead, but Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton are close enough to keep the outcome unsettled.
The last Emerson College Polling California survey released Saturday finds Becerra, a Democrat, leading with 28%. Steyer, also a Democrat, follows at 22%, while Hilton, a Republican, is at 21%. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received 12%. while Democrats Katie Porter. a former Orange County congresswoman. and Matt Mahan. mayor of San José. each earned 5%.
Becerra’s support isn’t just higher—it’s spreading. The poll shows he carries 44% of Democrats, 36% of Hispanics, and 36% of women. Hilton’s strength. by contrast. is concentrated among Republicans: he has consolidated a majority of the Republican vote with 59%. compared with Bianco’s 29%. Steyer performs differently, favored among those under 30 with 36% and at 25% among white voters.
That division matters because of how California’s open primary works. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top two—regardless of party affiliation—will move on to the general election in November.
In a brief cut-through-the-noise warning, Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball pointed to the dynamics of a runoff path. “If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit,” he wrote. “Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra. whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”.
The survey also suggests that many voters may already be locked in. Three in four people polled said they will definitely vote for the candidate they named in the primary. The remaining quarter said they could still flip. Four percent were wholly undecided. When asked who they might support, Becerra again led at 28%, while Hilton and Steyer each received 23%.
The Emerson survey adds a momentum snapshot that helps explain why Becerra’s lead feels more than static. It was conducted May 27-28 among 1. 000 likely voters—after Becerra’s support rose 9 percentage points in a little more than two weeks compared with the May 9-10 Emerson results. Steyer and Hilton increased by 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Bianco gained 1 percentage point. Porter and Mahan, however, moved in the opposite direction, losing 3 and 5 percentage points, respectively.
For voters, the stakes are straightforward but the math is unforgiving. With no clear majority winner shown in the poll’s vote share. the real question heading toward Tuesday is how quickly those close margins can shift—especially among the undecided and the voters who say they might still change their minds.
Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Steve Hilton Chad Bianco Katie Porter Matt Mahan California gubernatorial primary Emerson College Polling California open primary top two runoff
28% is basically a lock, right? The other guys are just fighting for vibes.
I don’t get how Steyer is “close” at 22% but people keep saying he’s doomed. Also Hilton at 21% feels like the poll is trolling everyone. Feels like Becerra is winning but somehow not winning?
So if Bianco drops, Hilton magically gets his votes? That sounds like cope. People aren’t just gonna switch parties because of a math problem in a polling report. Half the under-30 stuff too… sounds made up.
These polls always change the story in the last week. Like, Becerra is leading but they’re saying it could turn into a runoff thing and Hilton benefits?? I’m confused because I thought the top two just whoever got the most. And why are they acting like Hispanics and women numbers mean something automatic. I swear every election is the same article with different names.