Becerra surges ahead of Hilton as Trump drags

Becerra leads – A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows Democrat Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton in a head-to-head California governor’s race ahead of November, powered by strong Democratic loyalty and Democrats’ numerical advantage in the st

On the eve of California’s November election, Xavier Becerra is walking in with a cushion—one built not just on enthusiasm from Democrats, but on the math of who’s in the electorate and how voters feel about President Trump.

In a head-to-head matchup among registered voters. Becerra leads Steve Hilton by 52% to 31%. with the remainder undecided. according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times. The survey. conducted before the June 2 primary from May 19-24. points to a race that already looks. at least for voters. like a familiar partisan contest.

“It looks very much like a traditional. partisan-based general election. with most of the Democrats. over 80%. behind Becerra as the campaign starts. ” said IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. He stressed that Democrats have a structural edge even beyond enthusiasm: Democrats outnumber Republicans by 20 points in California. and Becerra is “clearly taking advantage of” that advantage.

The loyalty numbers are stark. Among Democrats, 82% said they would support Becerra in the general election. Among Republicans, 84% said they would do the same for Hilton.

The margin widens when voters not firmly tied to the two major parties are included. Among voters registered as no party preference or registered with other parties—who make up almost a third of the state electorate—43% backed Becerra, 28% supported Hilton, and 29% remained undecided.

Across age, gender, racial, and geographic lines, voters preferred Becerra to Hilton nearly across the board. The one geographic exception is the North Coast/Sierra region, about 2% of the electorate, where voters favored Hilton.

That backdrop matters because Hilton’s campaign is built, in part, on former President Trump’s attention. In April. Hilton secured Trump’s endorsement. which helped him consolidate Republican support enough to outpace his GOP rival. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. in the June primary—where Hilton finished in second place.

But the poll suggests the endorsement may not translate as easily into a general election. More than a third of Republicans—37%—said Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to support Hilton. DiCamillo warned that while it helped Hilton consolidate the Republican vote in the primary. it will “likely hurt him in the general election.”.

Trump remains unpopular in California. The poll released Thursday found that 69% of voters disapprove of the president’s performance while 29% approve.

“A majority of Californians have a very strong negative view of the president, so Hilton’s backing by the president will not be nearly as beneficial to him in the general as it was in the primary,” DiCamillo said.

Becerra’s path to this position has been shaped by a campaign squeeze and then a sudden opening. As recently as less than three months ago, he was “wallowing in the low single-digits” in public opinion polls. His fortunes changed when former Rep. Eric Swalwell—one of the Democratic front-runners—dropped out of the governor’s race after he was accused of sexual assault and misconduct. which he denies.

Democratic voters and interest groups moved quickly behind Becerra. who was seen as steady. with a long resume in California politics and a record of fighting the Trump administration. In two months. he went from polling at 5% in a March IGS poll to 25% in a late May poll. and he finished first in the unofficial primary vote count.

With 91% of ballots tallied as of Wednesday afternoon. Becerra led with 27.9% of the vote compared to 25% for Hilton. according to the Associated Press. which declared Becerra and Hilton the two winners. Billionaire hedge fund founder turned environmentalist Tom Steyer was in third place with 22.5%. knocking the Democrat out of contention for the November election.

DiCamillo said Swalwell’s exit “really gave Becerra an opening and he capitalized on it.” He pointed to another detail that could prove decisive as the general election ramps up: Becerra was the only major candidate who ended the primary race with a favorable image among the overall electorate. “even in the face of all the negative ads that Steyer was running” against him. Just before the primary election. 44% of likely primary voters surveyed had a favorable view of Becerra compared to 38% who viewed him unfavorably.

Hilton and Steyer were “upside down.” Thirty-one percent had a favorable opinion of Hilton compared to 38% unfavorable, and 39% had a favorable view of Steyer while 43% saw him unfavorably.

Steyer, for his part, aggressively courted progressive voters and secured backing from left-wing individuals and groups including Rep. Ro Khanna (D-San Jose) and Our Revolution, a group founded by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). But the late May IGS poll suggested progressive voters ultimately ended up more with Becerra than with Steyer. Among voters who self-identified as progressive, 39% said they would support Becerra while 29% preferred Steyer.

“It’s really one of the factors that was responsible for Steyer’s campaign not being successful,” DiCamillo said. He added that while progressive voters were “a target audience for Steyer, but Becerra was able to have an advantage there.”

The survey was conducted online in English and Spanish among 8,578 registered California voters, with a margin of error of 2% in either direction.

Taken together, the numbers portray a general election that could be far less volatile than the primary—if voters stay anchored where they’re already anchored, and if Trump’s baggage remains as heavy in November as it is today.

California governor's race Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Mark DiCamillo Trump endorsement June 2 primary Eric Swalwell Tom Steyer California politics November election poll