Connect Bay – Bay Area transit agencies are betting on a new regional sales tax measure in November 2026, after election officials validated more than 300,000 signatures and placed the plan on the ballot. The proposal would add a 0.5% sales tax in four counties and 1% in Sa
The pitch for a November sales tax for Bay Area transit doesn’t start with spreadsheets. It starts with what agencies say they can’t keep doing.
BART has warned it would have to close stations and eliminate weekend service. AC Transit has said whole lines would be cut. And with ridership described as anemic and costs still rising. the region’s agencies are trying to solve the same problem in one stroke: a sales tax measure on the ballot this November.
This week. the Metropolitan Transportation Commission announced that the tax measure—formally known as Connect Bay Area—qualified for the November 2026 ballot after election officials validated more than 300. 000 signatures from Alameda. Contra Costa. San Francisco. San Mateo. and Santa Clara counties. The threshold was met by around 66%.
In a press release, the agency said, “The overwhelming signature total that led to the measure’s qualification for the ballot reflects broad public support for transit and growing awareness of the urgency surrounding the future of Bay Area public transportation.”
The measure would add an additional 0.5% sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties, and an additional 1% sales tax in San Francisco. Organizers say it would raise an estimated $14 billion for mass transit over 14 years.
Yet even supporters are dealing with a political bruise that hasn’t fully faded: voters in the region rejected tax measures on the primary ballot in June, sending a message that they were tired of paying more taxes for the same basic services.
In Oakland, Measure E, a parcel tax, crashed out. In Contra Costa County, a sales tax measure designed to help low-income healthcare programs failed. San Francisco’s Overpaid CEO tax failed. And in El Cerrito, even a tax measure to build new libraries failed.
What makes November different—at least for the people pushing Connect Bay Area—is the belief that this fight is shaped differently. When supporters leading the ballot initiative were asked about the June rejections, none seemed especially worried.
Carter Lavin. of the Transbay Coalition. pointed to one clear counterexample from June: the SMART sales tax in Marin County “sailed through” with 70% of the vote. He also argued that the outcomes in some failed measures didn’t line up with what Connect Bay Area needs—he noted that Measure G in Contra Costa County failed even though it exceeded the 50%-plus-one threshold required for Connect Bay Area. Measure G required 55% to pass.
Lavin said it’s easy for voters to grasp what happens if transit is hollowed out—more traffic and pollution, and harder parking and access to jobs. He also said the transit measure hasn’t faced the same kind of organized, targeted resistance that appeared in other June fights.
“ We’re feeling that people are still looking to invest in their communities. and I think a really key element is that we see the difference in elections where there was concerted. funded opposition versus ones where there weren’t. ” Lavin said. “The regional measure is supported by labor, by businesses, by progressives, by immigrant rights groups, health and housing groups.”.
Still, he cautioned that lack of opposition doesn’t mean voters will simply say yes.
Lavin said his coalition has built what he described as a “volunteer army” of more than 1,000 people who are knocking on doors, making social videos, and talking with people at major events during this month, including at World Cup soccer watch parties at San Pedro Square in San Jose.
“We’re helping people do the math where they realize what the tax gets them,” he said. “For the vast majority of people in the Bay Area, the sales tax amounts will more than pay for themselves.”
Abibat Rahman-Davies. the transportation policy manager at TransForm CA. an Oakland mass transit advocacy group. said campaign leaders are leaning hard into that cost anxiety because voters are worried about expenses “more than ever. ” with the economy not in the best shape. Rahman-Davies said TransForm. part of a coalition that includes Voices for Public Transportation. has focused on explaining the measure’s benefits to influential groups such as unions like SEIU 1021.
“We inform nonprofits and advocacy groups about what the measure is about, get them to endorse the measure, then they take that back to their communities and speak to the people they serve to get them to support the measure and vote yes in November,“ Rahman-Davies said.
He added that many groups the campaign has presented to were unaware of the financial straits transit agencies are in. Rahman-Davies said communicating the gravity of the problem will be the focus over the next two months, now that signatures have been verified and the measure is on the ballot.
Rahman-Davies said he was confident Connect Bay Area will pass because a November general election “typically brings out more voters.”
But confidence isn’t the same thing as certainty.
Ethan Elkind. an attorney who directs a climate program at UC Berkeley Law School and has written about transit policy. including the history of the Los Angeles Metro rail system. warned that the voting mood could be unforgiving. He told Oaklandside that cost-of-living worries. combined with concerns about operational problems and inefficient management of funds at transit agencies. are significant enough that—if the measure needed a two-thirds majority—it would likely fail.
Some people, Elkind said, will always vote against government spending. Beyond that, he described “a centrist group of voters” who may resist the measure if they believe the agencies are being wasteful.
That’s part of why he pointed to state changes that require cost accounting, including “an oversight committee and county control,” added by Gov. Gavin Newsom and state legislators as a requirement for this measure, as they did for previous emergency transit funds.
“That could be a difference between 49% and 51%” of the vote,” Elkind said.
He also flagged another wild card: people may be using transit less than they did before the pandemic. leaving some feeling less connected to the service. He said it’s possible the same number of individuals still use transit. but less often because of work-from-home initiatives. including many people in Oakland who ride BART.
Even with all those risks, Elkind argued that transit funding measures have generally succeeded. “BART is very central to the Bay Area economy and transit in general,” he said.
Connect Bay Area is now set for a statewide test in November—one that will measure not just whether voters are willing to pay more, but whether they believe the region can afford to lose transit the way supporters fear it could be lost.
BART AC Transit Muni Connect Bay Area sales tax measure November 2026 ballot Metropolitan Transportation Commission Alameda County Contra Costa County San Francisco County San Mateo County Santa Clara County transit funding SEIU 1021 TransForm CA Transbay Coalition