Barack Obama was more popular before he won the presidency than Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other top Democrats are heading into the midterms

Former President Barack Obama entered the 2008 presidential race with significantly strong favorability among voters, a position that several Democrats now viewed as potential 2028 contenders have not been able to match. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are among the better-known Democrats likely to launch a presidential bid. However, according to reports, they are already viewed unfavorably by significant portions of the electorate. The contrast could matter as Democrats prepare for a presidential contest against the party of increasingly unpopular President Donald Trump, with economic and foreign-policy concerns potentially shaping the 2028 race.

Barack Obama entered the 2008 race with strong numbers

Obama’s political profile was still developing in late 2006, when he was a first-term Illinois senator, but voters who knew him generally viewed him positively. Gallup recorded a net favorability rating of +31 in December 2006, with 42% favorable, 11% unfavorable and 47% expressing no opinion. By February 2007, his net rating had climbed to +34, with 53% favorable and 19% unfavorable.

The Washington Post polling painted a similar picture, with Obama’s favorability rising from 44% in December 2006 to 53% in February 2007. David Stebenne, a professor of history and law at Ohio State University, said Obama’s 2004 Democratic National Convention speech “really impressed a lot of viewers as a fresh, likable new face.”

A ‘fresh face’ in an anti-establishment era

Stebenne said Obama’s opposition to the Iraq War also strengthened his appeal as public sentiment turned against the conflict. “I cannot emphasize too how likable he was through the media, irrespective of where you are on the political spectrum,” he said, describing Obama’s “sunny optimism.”

By 2006 and 2007, voters were increasingly dissatisfied with established political figures. “People were very much anti-political establishment by 2006, 2007, grumpy with both the Clintons and the Bushes. He came along and he was untainted by an association with them, in part because he was so new. So the fresh face was likable, who claims to be a uniter, not a divider, and who was right about the war,” Stebenne said.

Democrats lack a clear successor

The emerging 2028 field looks considerably less settled, with support fragmented among several candidates. Thomas Whalen, a Boston University professor, said Democrats are experiencing an “identity crisis.”

“There’s at this point no consensus on who they can agree to lead the party in 2028, and that’s why you’re seeing all these, I don’t know, dark horse candidates if you want to call them that. It’s very fractured,” he said.

An Echelon Insights poll released in August put Harris as the leading contender with 18% of the support, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 13%, Newsom at 12% and Ocasio-Cortez at 11%. A Big Data Poll from July similarly placed Harris first.

Prediction markets remain unsettled as well. As of Friday, Kalshi gave Sen. Jon Ossoff a 17% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 16% and Newsom at 13%. Polymarket favored Ocasio-Cortez at 20%.

Current political mood reminiscent of the period before the 1976 election

Whalen said candidates who have “new faces” — such as Ossoff — could have an advantage, while describing the current political mood as reminiscent of the period before the 1976 election. “There is a certain restlessness that kind of reminds me of the post-Watergate 1976 election, where you have someone like Jimmy Carter, a peanut farmer from Georgia, ascending to the top of the party and steal the nomination from other established Democrats that year. And I see a potential reprise of that in 2028,” he said.

While the comparison with Obama is not necessarily a prediction of who will win in 2028, it highlights the challenge Democrats face in terms of finding a candidate who can combine high personal favorability, outsider appeal and a clear response to the political concerns dominating the country as the party heads toward the midterms.