Houston can’t get home soon enough, at least based on how this road stretch has felt. The Astros are on their final stop of a 10-game road trip, and it’s been messy—especially with injuries stacking up at the worst time.
In Seattle this afternoon, the pressure is simple: avoid the sweep. Houston has just one win in the first nine games of the trip, and you can feel the urgency in the way everyone’s talking about getting support back in the infield.
The biggest note for the lineup is the status of two key bats. Houston will be without SS Jeremy Pena for now—he’s been placed on the injured list—while 3B Carlos Correa is expected to return after missing Sunday. Correa coming back matters because he’s been producing in the middle of the order (ranked in the 95th percentile in expected batting average and the 91st in strikeout rate). Actually, it’s more than “nice to have” when you’re trying to keep a series from slipping.
On the mound, it’s Mike Burrows tasked with holding things together. His last two outings have been “serviceable” by the standards the Astros need right now—five earned runs on 13 hits over 10 1/3 innings. The Seattle Mariners, though, have a habit of turning up the heat later. Misryoum newsroom reported the Mariners have been hitting well versus Houston, with 14 of 23 runs coming from the fifth inning onward. That’s why this feels like a game where the first few frames can set the tempo… and then the deeper innings decide who’s still standing.
And yes, the Astros have their own reasons to believe. Misryoum editorial desk noted George Kirby has allowed a home run in each of his three starts, while Houston is second in slugging (.454) and third in home runs per outing (1.19). There’s also the series context: Houston scored 13 runs across the opening two games—both went Over. The vibe for the finale is pretty straightforward: if the Astros come out swinging early, Seattle can still surge late, and that usually makes totals the easiest place to focus.
For picks, the lean is on the Astros moneyline (+156), with the Over 7.5 (+100) as the best bet. Misryoum analysis indicates the Astros’ over trend is real—11 of their last 14 games have gone over the total (+7.60 Units/ 9% ROI). Game models are calling for at least eight runs this afternoon, and honestly, with Houston’s injury-plagued bullpen, they’re probably going to need run support to avoid letting the late innings get away from them. One small real-world detail, just to make it less abstract: there’s that sharp stadium air you notice before a pitch at T-Mobile Field—like… a mix of sun-warmed concrete and cool evening breeze—then everything speeds up right after the first sign of movement. That’s what this game’s got in it.
Odds and game info: Monday, April 13, 2026, first pitch 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA. Astros moneyline +156; Mariners -163. Run line: Astros +1.5 (-138), Mariners -1.5 (+133). Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100), Under 7.5 (-104). Astros starting pitcher: Mike Burrows (1-2, 5.63 ERA). Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (1-2, 3.60 ERA). Weather and odds are subject to change, and it’s not intended for use in MA. And yeah, injuries can still swing fast—so, this afternoon’s the moment everything either clicks or… doesn’t.
Newcastle ‘like’ Manuel Ugarte, but Juventus could beat them to the deal