Ask the Meteorologist: How often have severe risks verified so far this July?

July has been the fourth-wettest on record in Raleigh, which has mostly been beneficial. However, it has come with several threats of severe weather. 

18 of the 28 days so far this month have been outlooked for severe weather by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

What do these SPC severe risks mean?

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center issues outlooks for eight days in advance to diagnose the potential for damaging thunderstorms. 

The risk levels go from Level 1 (the lowest) to Level 5 (the highest).

We’ve seen several Level 1 and Level 2 risks in July. 

A Level 1 implies isolated severe storm potential, whereas Level 2 implies scattered severe storm potential. (Scattered coverage is slightly higher than isolated.) 

How many of these risks have verified?

A Level 2 risk is in place for our viewing area for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

For the sake of today’s article, I’m highlighting the Level 2 risks in July specifically. 

In July 2026, there have been nine days with a Level 2 risk in our area.

Spread out across those days, there have been nearly 160 reports of storm damage. This means an average of 18 storm reports per Level 2 day. 

However, there have been three such days in which no damage has been reported. 

What could prevent severe weather Tuesday?

Tuesday is one of those days in which we have the risk for severe storms, but there’s the chance it fizzles out. 

We’re tracking clusters of storms (aka. MCSs aka. Mesoscale Convective Systems) coming in from the Ohio River Valley. 

If one of those clusters comes through around midday Tuesday, it wouldn’t be severe.

In fact, the rain-cooled air behind that cluster would limit the chance of severe storms later in the day Tuesday. 

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