Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gets fresh presidential odds, shooting ahead as the frontrunner in new poll
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the early frontrunner in a new poll of potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, while former Vice President Kamala Harris posted single-digit support.
Leading the Democratic field
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field with 22 percent support, narrowly ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21 percent. Harris received 5 percent, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sens. Mark Kelly and Bernie Sanders each finished with less than 10 percent.
According to the survey, Ocasio-Cortez’s support is driven largely by “self-described socialists and progressives,” while Buttigieg draws more balanced backing from “progressives, liberals and moderates.” No other Democrat in the poll received more than 2% support.
The poll carries added significance because New Hampshire has long been an influential early presidential primary state, often providing an early snapshot of the Democratic nomination contest.
Polling on the other side
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance led the field with 36 percent support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26 percent.
They were the only Republicans to reach double digits, with Sen. Rand Paul coming in at No. 3 with 8 percent.
The survey was conducted online among more than 1,500 respondents between July 15 and July 20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Prediction markets
Notably absent from the Democratic ranking was Sen. Jon Ossoff — despite being the Senate’s top fundraiser. However, Kalshi prediction markets have increased his implied 2028 presidential chances from 5 percent in January to 16 percent in late July. Ocasio-Cortez’s odds rose from 10 percent to 15 percent, while Newsom’s fell from 35 percent to 18 percent.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten also reported that Google searches for Ossoff have reached an all-time high, rising 300 percent compared with July 2025.