81 major – Zillow Home Value Index data analyzed by ResiClub shows U.S. home prices are only up slightly year-over-year—while 81 of the 300 largest housing markets (27%) still report year-over-year declines as of April 2025 to April 2026. After months when the number of
For many would-be buyers, the past year hasn’t looked like a single national housing story. It has looked like a patchwork—some metros still posting year-over-year gains, others slipping into declines that quietly shift bargaining power.
Between April 2025 and April 2026, U.S. home prices are up +0.7% year-over-year, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. That pace matches what was happening a year earlier: in April 2025, the national year-over-year home price growth rate was +0.7%. It also sits slightly above the recent year-over-year low of -0.01% in August 2025.
The split is visible in the count of large markets where prices are falling. Out of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets. 81 are posting a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2025 to April 2026 window—about 27% of markets. The number of metros with year-over-year declines had risen through the first half of 2025, then stopped climbing.
In the Jan. 2024 to Jan. 2025 window, 31 of the 300 largest markets (10%) had falling year-over-year readings. That rose to 42 (14%) for Feb. 2024 to Feb. 2025. 60 (20%) for March 2024 to March 2025. and then escalated quickly: 80 (27%) for April 2024 to April 2025. 96 (32%) for May 2024 to May 2025. and 110 (36%) for June 2024 to June 2025. The decline count peaked around mid-to-late summer before easing: 105 (36%) for July 2024 to July 2025, 109 (35%) for Aug. 2024 to Aug. 2025, and then 105 (35%) for Sept. 2024 to Sept. 2025.
It remained elevated through the end of 2024 and early 2025, with 105 (35%) for Oct. 2024 to Oct. 2025, 98 (33%) for Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025, and 106 (35%) for Dec. 2024 to Dec. 2025. It then stayed close to that range: 100 (33%) for Jan. 2025 to Jan. 2026, 99 (33%) for Feb. 2025 to Feb. 2026, and 89 (30%) for the March 2025 to March 2026 window before returning to 81 (27%) for April 2025 to April 2026.
ResiClub links the early 2025 jump in declining markets to a faster shift in the supply–demand balance. In its read, the supply–demand equilibrium—measured by inventory—shifted more quickly toward homebuyers during the first half of 2025. Over the past ten months. however. ResiClub says the list of declining markets has started to stabilize. and inventory growth has also decelerated.
Looking ahead, ResiClub expects the number of markets with year-over-year price declines to decrease more in the coming months, based on seasonally adjusted month-over-month prints.
Still, the overall picture is not uniform. Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. including pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast. some pockets in states like Texas. Florida. and Colorado—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip—are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.
There’s also a nuance that matters for anyone watching market turns: a metro can show falling year-over-year home prices while month-to-month conditions have already eased. ResiClub says it’s possible for a metro with falling year-over-year home prices to be “done seeing” seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price declines (at least temporarily). or to have turned the corner in some parts of the metro.
San Francisco is offered as an example. The core of San Francisco has seen notable pricing and buyer activity this spring, even while the broader metro remains down slightly year-over-year and weakness persists in Oakland.
The metros where softness has been most noticeable—and where homebuyers have gained the most leverage—are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West.
ResiClub traces that pressure to the way many of these areas surged during the Pandemic Housing Boom. when home price growth outpaced local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022. markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges. relying on local income levels to support higher prices.
The cooling was compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. ResiClub notes that builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales. which can cool the resale market. Buyers who might have chosen existing homes may instead select new construction with more attractive deals. adding upward pressure to resale inventory growth over the past few years.
Even with stabilization signals, the geography of the market remains stark: while 81 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets are seeing year-over-year declines, another 219 are seeing year-over-year home price increases.
The gap between the strongest and weakest metros is described by ResiClub as fairly normal historically. but the direction split is wider than usual. That “bifurcation”—the share of markets rising versus falling—is larger than normal because national appreciation has stabilized into a softer market with growth barely above +0.0%. And the longer markets remain divided into the “rising” and “falling” camps. the gulf can widen between the more resilient areas and the weaker ones.
The divergence is measurable in how far markets sit from their 2022 highs. Home prices in the Hartford. CT metro area are now +24.0% above their 2022 peak. while home prices in the Austin. TX metro area sit -27.5% below their 2022 peak. ResiClub adds that mean reversion plays a role here. with many of the outright price declines occurring in markets that overheated further during the Pandemic Housing Boom.
To show this divide over time. ResiClub used a historical chart across the 50 largest metro housing markets. with the yellow line representing the national aggregate dating back to 2000. For that historical chart. ResiClub analyzed the 200 largest markets rather than the 300 used in the earlier count. because some markets ranked 201 to 300 lack complete data going back to 2000. When weighted by population (not visualized), the housing market appears slightly weaker than the chart suggests. That aligns with the fact that. among just the 50 largest housing markets. 24 (48%) are currently posting negative year-over-year price growth. while nationally aggregated home prices are up just +0.7% year-over-year using the Zillow Home Value Index.
Zillow Home Value Index U.S. housing market home prices year-over-year inventory ResiClub mortgage rates Sun Belt Gulf Coast Mountain West Texas housing Florida housing Colorado housing San Francisco Oakland Austin Tampa Hartford bifurcation
So basically housing is crashing again? lol
I don’t get it, the article says up 0.7% but also 81 metros down. Isn’t that just Zillow being confusing for no reason?
Wait, 81 of the 300 largest are down year-over-year… so does that mean the other 219 are definitely going up? Cuz my cousin in Phoenix said prices are still insane. Feels like it depends where you live, like always, but the “national” thing is just misleading.
Bargaining power shifting?? That’s funny because my landlord already raised our rent like 3 times. Also I swear those Zillow numbers are never right, half the listings aren’t even updated. If 27% are down, why do I still see homes selling for way more than I remember? Maybe it’s just the same rich people moving around.