77 major – U.S. home prices rose 0.8% year over year from May 2025 to May 2026, but 77 of the nation’s 300 largest metro housing markets still show falling prices—an unusual split that has buyers gaining leverage, especially across parts of the Sun Belt and the Gulf Coas
For months, the housing story sounded like one long trend line: prices up, up, up. Then the map started to thicken with places where home values were no longer rising year over year.
Between May 2025 and May 2026, home prices across the U.S. rose 0.8% on the Zillow Home Value Index when measured across all housing types included in the index (single-family and condos). But the same national data also shows how fragile that “up” can be: the pace is about the same as it was a year earlier. when May 2025’s national year-over-year home price growth rate was 0.4%. It is also up slightly from the recent year-over-year low of -0.01% in August 2025.
Even as the national number looks modestly positive, the metro-by-metro picture has been more complicated. During the first half of 2025, the number of major metro housing markets posting year-over-year declines climbed. That count has since stopped increasing.
In the nation’s 300 largest housing markets, the share falling year over year grew steadily through 2024 and early 2025. It began with 31 markets (10%) showing declines in the January 2024 to January 2025 window. That rose to 42 markets (14%) in the February 2024 to February 2025 window. 60 markets (20%) in March 2024 to March 2025. and then 80 markets (27%) in April 2024 to April 2025. The count kept moving higher to 96 markets (32%) in May 2024 to May 2025 and 110 markets (36%) in June 2024 to June 2025.
By July 2024 to July 2025, 105 markets (36%) were declining. August 2024 to August 2025 held at 109 markets (35%). before easing slightly to 105 markets (35%) in September 2024 to September 2025 and again to 105 markets (35%) in October 2024 to October 2025. In November 2024 to November 2025, 98 markets (33%) were declining; in December 2024 to December 2025, the figure ticked back to 106 markets (35%).
Then the downshift continued into 2025–2026: 100 markets (33%) were declining in the January 2025 to January 2026 window. 99 markets (33%) in February 2025 to February 2026. 89 markets (30%) in March 2025 to March 2026. 81 markets (27%) in April 2025 to April 2026—and finally 77 markets (26%) in May 2025 to May 2026.
In other words, the “decline list” is smaller than it was at its peak—but it has not disappeared.
Among those 77 major metro area housing markets with falling year-over-year prices. the biggest year-over-year declines stretch across multiple states and economic regions: Punta Gorda. Florida (-7.9%); London. Kentucky (-7.1%); Cape Coral. Florida (-6.1%); Austin (-5.7%); North Port. Florida (-5.3%); Kahului. Hawaii (-4.6%); and Naples. Florida (-4.4%).
This is also where the leverage narrative becomes hard to ignore. ResiClub previously told readers that the count of markets with year-over-year price declines would decrease a little in the first half of 2026—and that’s exactly what has shown up in these monthly readings. The burst of softening has let up, but the market is still not evenly strong everywhere.
A clear dividing line runs through the data: prices are still climbing year over year in many regions where active inventory remains well below prepandemic 2019 levels. including pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. At the same time. some pockets in states such as Texas. Florida. and Colorado—where active inventory exceeds prepandemic levels by a solid clip—are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.
Markets showing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily in Sun Belt regions—especially the Gulf Coast and the Mountain West.
That’s not just about current listings. Many of these areas saw sharper price surges during the pandemic housing boom. with home price growth outpacing local income levels. When pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022. markets including Tampa. Florida. and Austin faced challenges. relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices.
The pressure didn’t stop at demand. Supply changed, too. An abundance of new home supply gave builders room to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales. That cooled the resale market. Some buyers who might have previously chosen existing homes instead opted for new construction with more attractive deals. which helped push upward resale inventory growth over the past few years.
Across the full set of big metros, the story still has two sides: while 77 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets show year-over-year home price declines, another 223 are seeing year-over-year home price increases.
The national picture is steady enough to be believable—home prices are up 0.8% year over year using the Zillow Home Value Index—but it also masks a wider split than normal.
A “bifurcation” appears when you look at how many markets are in the rising camp versus the falling camp. For the strongest and weakest metros, the range is fairly normal historically. But with national appreciation stabilized into a softer market with growth barely above zero. the gap between markets that keep climbing and markets that keep sliding is wider than normal. The longer some metros stay in the rising group while others remain in the falling group. the wider the gulf between the more resilient markets and the weaker ones.
Two examples make that contrast feel immediate. Home prices in the Hartford, Connecticut metro area are now +25.6% above their 2022 peak. In the Austin metro area, home prices sit -27.3% below their 2022 peak. Some of that difference is tied to reversion to the mean—many of the declines are in markets that overheated further during the pandemic boom.
One technical note matters for anyone comparing visuals: for the historical chart covering the year-over-year change in home prices across the 50 largest metro housing markets (with the yellow line representing the national aggregate dating back to 2000). the analysis used 200 largest markets rather than the 300 used in the monthly decline count. The reason is that some markets ranked 201 to 300 lack complete data going back to 2000. Even so. when weighted by population (not visualized). the housing market appears slightly weaker than the chart suggests—consistent with the national reading that home prices are up just 0.8% year over year and that. among the 50 largest housing markets. 22 (44%) are posting year-over-year price declines.
So the shift isn’t a collapse. It’s a rebalancing—and it shows up most clearly in the number itself. In May 2025 to May 2026. 77 major metros are still in a declining year-over-year price cycle. even as the country as a whole reports modest growth. For buyers, that’s where the market’s new footing becomes tangible. For sellers in the wrong metros, it’s a warning that last year’s momentum is not automatically returning.
housing market home prices Zillow Home Value Index year-over-year declines metro areas Sun Belt Gulf Coast mortgage rates inventory affordability incentives