Latin America – Misryoum reports a new estimate of U.S. military spending in the Western Hemisphere tied to Venezuela and Caribbean boat strikes—an amount experts say may be far higher.
A new analysis reviewed by Misryoum points to escalating U.S. military costs tied to operations in Venezuela and across the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific.
The spending estimate—covering air, naval, and Special Operations expenses between Aug.. 1. 2025. and March 31. 2026—puts the price tag of Operations Absolute Resolve and Operation Southern Spear at at least $4.7 billion. with researchers warning the true figure is likely higher.. The key detail for lawmakers and the public: the Department of Defense has not provided a clear. public tally of costs tied to these campaigns.
At the center of the controversy is not only the dollar amount. but also the expanding footprint and the lack of transparency around how the operations are resourced and assessed.. Researchers involved in the estimate say the operations appear to have no firm end date and are continuing to grow. which matters because military spending tends to scale through steady deployments. recurring aircraft and ship operating costs. and ongoing munitions requirements.
Misryoum notes that the analysis frames the cost question as part of a larger public-interest debate.. The rationale for intervention in the Western Hemisphere has frequently been described as a response to cartel violence and regional instability—but the reported findings suggest the U.S.. is leaning on costly military measures even as many of the drivers of cartel power are economic. governance-related. and tied to law-enforcement capacity.
The largest share of the estimate is naval spending, described as the single biggest expense at roughly $3.8 billion.. Misryoum analysis of the figure highlights the operational reality behind it: the deployment included an amphibious ready group anchored by ships such as the USS Iwo Jima. USS Fort Lauderdale. and USS San Antonio. along with the USS Lake Erie guided-missile cruiser and marine forces.. The estimate also describes the daily operating cost of these naval assets as substantial. reflecting how deployments become a long-running bill rather than a short burst of activity.
Air power and unmanned systems make up the next major bucket in the estimate. with at least $616 million spent on aircraft deployment.. The study describes continuing daily costs to keep maritime patrol aircraft. fighter jets. and drone systems in the region. including platforms used for surveillance and strike operations.. In practical terms. this is the “stacking” effect that often follows initial deployments: once aircraft and crews are positioned. they tend to remain to sustain operations. intelligence-gathering. and strike readiness.
Boat strikes under Operation Southern Spear also appear to be expanding in scope and geography.. Misryoum reports that the military conducted dozens of attacks on so-called drug boats since September 2025. with the analysis noting fatalities of civilians in some strikes.. The administration’s rationale—reported in the estimate as linking targets to cartels and criminal gangs—has not been paired with a level of transparency that would allow the public to verify threat assessments.
Legal and oversight concerns have followed those strikes.. Experts in the laws of war. along with members of Congress from both parties referenced in the analysis. argue that deliberately killing people who are not facing an imminent threat of violence can violate longstanding principles governing armed conflict.. Misryoum underscores the significance of that debate: when the line between suspected criminality and battlefield imminence blurs. the consequences are not just tactical—they become moral. legal. and political.
Beyond the cost categories attributed directly to Southern Spear and Absolute Resolve. the analysis points to additional ancillary expenses. including an air campaign and Special Operations connected to the reported abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.. The study’s cost accounting includes deployment and combat costs for a relatively small number of Special Operations forces. while also flagging that other deployment costs—such as additional commandos in Ecuador mentioned in the estimate—remain unclear.. That uncertainty is central to the overall story: when major details are missing. the public cannot assess whether the spending matches outcomes.
Misryoum also sees a broader pattern in the administration’s posture toward the hemisphere.. The operations are framed by the Trump administration as part of a retooled Monroe Doctrine approach. often described as a “restoration of American power” in the region.. Even if the stated goal is counter-cartel action, the effect is a widening sense of U.S.. military permanence—one that can become a “steady state” presence rather than a temporary response.
What makes the new estimate particularly consequential is how it reaches beyond immediate spending.. If operations persist for years—as some administration statements suggest—the cost burden can compound through interest on debt. long-term obligations to veterans. and ongoing procurement and sustainment.. Misryoum notes that this is where debates about budgets often collide with real life: families facing rising healthcare costs and other pressures watch the government spend at scale on military campaigns. while the downstream public costs can arrive later in the form of higher deficits and long-running benefits.
The estimate’s authors warn that even the $4.7 billion figure may be conservative because some categories of data are not publicly available and some elements remain classified or incompletely reported.. Misryoum’s takeaway is straightforward: without a transparent accounting standard. it is difficult for Congress. journalists. or the public to judge not just whether these operations are effective. but whether they are justified relative to less expensive alternatives like economic investment. regional justice reforms. and strengthened local law enforcement.
Until the Pentagon and related agencies provide clearer budget reporting. the debate will likely intensify: Americans will keep asking how much is being spent. where the money is going. and what results—human and strategic—are actually being achieved.. And if the operations continue to expand as the analysis indicates. the financial bill may rise long before policymakers agree on a finish line.