Trump’s Cuba – President Trump’s talk of taking Cuba has intensified after U.S. moves in Venezuela and strikes in Iran, but officials and outside experts say any real shift is more likely to come through economic pressure and “regime management” than a quick military repeat.
When President Trump began floating the idea of U.S. action against Cuba again, he did it in the same breath that has recently fueled his other foreign-policy gambles. In recent remarks, he suggested an aircraft carrier could pull in, stop offshore and prompt Cuba’s leaders to “give up.”
The comments arrive after a series of events Trump’s team appears to see as proof of concept: in January. the U.S.. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and Trump warned at the time that Cuba would be next.. At a news conference about the Jan.. 3 raid. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stood alongside Trump and said the Cuban regime should be “concerned.” Since then. Trump’s language has sharpened as the administration points to momentum overseas.
On March 16. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he believed he would have “the honor of taking Cuba.” “Taking Cuba in some form. yeah. ” he said.. “Taking Cuba.. I mean. whether I free it. take it — I think I could do anything I want with it. if you want to know the truth.” A week later. he said. “Cuba’s going to be next.”
Rubio, who is the son of Cuban immigrants, has been more explicit about what the administration wants to change.. In testimony to Congress in January. he said. “we would love to see the regime there change. ” describing it as a “great benefit” to the U.S.. Weeks later. Rubio said Cuba has to “change dramatically. ” adding on March 17 in the Oval Office: “I mean Cuba’s got an economy that doesn’t work and a political and governmental system that can’t fix it.. The people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it.. So, they have to get new people in charge.”
While Trump has kept the idea of military leverage in play, Rubio’s public message has emphasized economic and political reform and a looming promise of “more news on that fairly soon.” “You cannot fix their economy if you don’t change the system of government,” Rubio said on Fox News.
Outside experts say the threat is easier to say than to execute. They argue that forcing Cuba to change would demand far more effort than Venezuela because of the island’s long-standing political structure and its ability to manage dissent.
“I think there are a number of factions within the administration where some would be happy to do a deal with most of the existing Cuban government if it gave greater access to businesses. and particularly to Cuban Americans to come back and invest. ” Paul Hare said.. Hare. who served as the British ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004. told CBS News that another group is insisting on “a complete regime change.”
Hare’s warning about division inside Washington is consistent with what’s already unfolding on the ground in Cuba.. The Trump administration has been trying to choke Cuba’s economy. imposing an oil blockade that experts say has pushed the communist-run island to its most dire state since the Soviet Union’s collapse. when Havana relied on heavy subsidies.. In mid-May, Cuba’s energy minister said Cuba has run out of fuel, largely as a result of the blockade.
At the same time, the administration has not shut the door on engagement.. On Thursday. May 14. CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana for a rare meeting with senior Cuban officials. an agency official told CBS News.. The trip was used to deliver a message that the U.S.. was prepared to expand economic and security engagement with Cuba if Havana makes “fundamental changes.”
Cuba’s top diplomats have insisted they do not believe a strike is coming.. The deputy foreign minister. Carlos Fernández de Cossío. told NBC News in March that his country does not see U.S.. military action as “probable,” while also saying Cuba’s military is “prepared” for any U.S.. aggression.. He added that regime change is “absolutely” off the table.
But experts say the most realistic path may be neither outright invasion nor purely diplomatic dialogue.. Christopher Hernandez-Roy. a senior fellow and deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. told CBS News that “regime management” is the “only realistic option.” He said regime change is likely harder than in Venezuela because Cuba’s power structure has been in place for almost 70 years and is “expert at repression and expert at sniffing out dissent.”
Hernandez-Roy also said a purely diplomatic solution “that doesn’t rest on any sort of coercion” is not likely.. “Regime management. ” he said. “is probably harder to accomplish than in Venezuela.” Still. he suggested it is “possible” that pressure could reach a point where elements in Cuba begin to “change course.”
For now, Cuba’s leadership transition complicates any notion of a simple power swap.. Raúl Castro handed the presidency to Miguel Díaz-Canel in 2018. marking the first time since 1959 that a Castro was not formally leading the country.. But Díaz-Canel is widely seen as a figurehead, and the Castros still wield considerable influence.
“’He’s not the person that actually wields the power in the country, but it would be seen as a symbolic win by the United States,” Hernandez-Roy said.
Even if the U.S.. believed a change at the top could be staged, it is unclear who would take over.. One scenario, according to Lawrence Gumbiner, a career diplomat who led the U.S.. Embassy in Havana during Trump’s first term. would be a Delcy Rodríguez-style figure leading Cuba “very much in concert with and under the pressure of the United States.”
Gumbiner said the first steps would likely be economic openings.. “I think the clear message will be like it is with Ms.. Rodriguez — that you will do as we say. or else.” He said that “or else” includes the threat of military action. though he believes such a threat is minimal and that potential indictments could also loom.
That legal pressure is already beginning to take shape.. The top federal prosecutor in Miami has been exploring potential charges against Communist Party leadership. including economic crimes. drugs. violent crimes and immigration-related violations.. CBS News also reported on May 14 that the Trump administration is taking steps to indict former leader Raúl Castro.
A broader and more sweeping option—one aimed at constitutional change—would require pulling an outsider into the process, Hare said. He described this as an ambitious approach involving someone outside the regime who would push for constitutional changes.
Still. Gumbiner said Trump’s goals appear less about dismantling Cuba’s political system quickly and more about opening the island for U.S.. business.. He described Trump as viewing Cuba as a “big opportunity for U.S.. businesses. ” saying. “Whether it’s shipping. whether it’s transportation. whether it’s tourism. whether it’s construction. I think Trump sees Cuba as kind of virgin territory. where it’s been been kind of dormant for six decades. and where the U.S.. business community can come in and really dominate the scene.”
Gumbiner also said Rubio likely wants broader political change than Trump, but that doing so “is going to be complicated.” He argued an upheaval of Cuba’s political structure would involve “tremendous U.S. effort.”
“It’s important to realize that Trump, he does not want to do nation building,” he said. “Rebuilding Cuba would be a nation building exercise if you want to redo it in a democratic, pluralist model. Whereas, making economic changes piecemeal is easier.”
Even Cuba appears to be adjusting to that pressure.. Facing the administration’s mounting demands. the Cuban government announced it would allow Cuban nationals living abroad to invest in companies on the island.. It marked a notable shift: residents had been heavily restricted from starting private businesses until recent years.
The administration, for its part, has also mixed pressure with selective gestures. In late March, the U.S. allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba, which Trump indicated was a humanitarian gesture. “They have to survive,” he said.
As Trump keeps dangling the language of force and Rubio continues to press for dramatic change. the central question now is what happens next: whether Washington tries to accelerate a political rupture. settle for a managed transition. or lean hardest on economic pressure to force decisions inside Cuba’s ruling system.
United States politics Trump Cuba Marco Rubio CIA John Ratcliffe Havana Venezuelan raid Maduro Cuba oil blockade Miguel Díaz-Canel Raúl Castro Delcy Rodríguez scenario regime change regime management