Diesel prices have hit a record high nearly every day this month, with a national average on Tuesday at $6.52 a gallon, according to AAA. That is driving a growing call to combat this climb by banning the export of the fuel, a move President Donald Trump endorsed today.
“I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel,” Trump said from the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. As to a ban, “ I’ve called for it. I’ve called for it within my people.”
Although relatively few Americans fill their cars with diesel, it’s a backbone of the U.S. economy. It powers the trucks, ships and trains that move goods across the country, and it is used throughout the agricultural sector. That means everyone is feeling the effect of fuel prices that have climbed almost 80 percent since the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran earlier this year. They have risen almost $1 per gallon in September alone.
The war brought ship traffic to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a tenth of the world’s water-borne diesel flows. Ukrainian strikes on Russia have further curbed the global flow, leaving other countries to make up the difference, especially the United States.
During the week of September 11, the U.S. produced over 5 million barrels of distillate fuels per day and sent about 1.6 million of them abroad, according to U.S. Energy Information data. At the same time, domestic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since 1882. This has led some lawmakers to recently urge Trump to curb diesel exports and direct production toward U.S. consumers.
“If our govt can embargo chips to China it can embargo diesel to help American farmers & truckers,” wrote Senator Chuck Grassley, a Democrat from Iowa, on X. Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican from Iowa, posted Monday on X. Senator majority leader John Thune, of South Dakota, has expressed interest as well. “If that would take pressure off of prices,” he said, “I’m open to exploring it.”
An online dashboard that has been tracking the impact of rising diesel prices since the war started shows that the ongoing increase has cost American households nearly $400 each — or more than $51 billion overall. Jeff Colgan, a Brown University political scientist who helped build the tracker, explained that banning exports would boost the supply and therefore lower the price.
“It could make a huge difference,” he said, though others disagree. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, wrote on X, “U.S. diesel prices are determined not by a U.S. supply and demand balance, but a global one. Keeping distillates and diesel home does not change the world price.”
The idea isn’t new. In 1975, after OPEC stopped shipping oil to the U.S., Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which included what ended up being an effective ban on crude oil exports. It continued until President Barack Obama lifted it four-decades later. Since then, oil companies have made billions exporting their products and oppose reviving any limits on where they can sell them.
The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers association has said that such a ban would make the problem worse. “Export bans do not create more fuel for Americans,” the organization wrote in a press release. “They reduce U.S. fuel production, put upward pressure on prices, weaken energy security and hand market share to foreign competitors.”
Some Republicans, including within the administration, also expressed concern about a ban. Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas, which is the country’s biggest oil-producing state, told The Hill that a ban would be a “gimmick.” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told CNBC that “it could actually hurt Americans.
Democrats have, in the past, called for export bans on oil products, including earlier this year and in 2021 when President Joe Biden was in office. So far they have been largely quiet on the diesel debate. “Trump is all smoke and mirrors,” said Senator Peter Welch, of Vermont, when Grist asked about the export ban. “If he’s serious about lowering prices of oil, gas, and home heating oil, he needs to end his illegal war with Iran.”
Before the president offered his thoughts on a ban, a White House official told Grist that the administration was not considering an export ban. It’s unclear if President Trump’s statements change that and how he might advance the issue — or whether Congress can build bipartisan will for legislation. But, regardless, Tyson Slocum, the energy program director at Public Citizen, a non-profit consumer advocacy organization, would like to see a more nuanced discussion of the way forward.
“The debate is so absurdly simplistic. People are like either total unfettered, unregulated exports or zero exports,” he said. There are many options in-between, he added, including how much diesel gets shipped overseas rather than cutting off that supply entirely.
“It could be very significant,” he said of even partial measures. “You would absolutely see a significant short-term drop in diesel prices.”