The RAM shortage could last years—what it means for phones, PCs, and AI memory
RAM shortage – Even with new DRAM fabs on the way, manufacturers may meet only about 60% of demand by the end of 2027. Misryoum breaks down why memory crunches can linger and what it could mean for devices and AI data centers.
The RAM shortage isn’t easing as fast as consumers and device makers may have hoped, and the timeline now stretches toward the next several years.
Why DRAM supply still won’t catch up
Misryoum reports that suppliers are ramping production. but the industry is still expected to fall short—potentially meeting only around 60% of demand by the end of 2027.. The gap matters because DRAM isn’t like other components that can be swapped or bypassed easily; it sits at the center of how devices boot. multitask. and run modern operating systems smoothly.
Even the memory giants—Samsung. SK hynix. and Micron—are adding capacity. but much of it won’t be online until at least 2027. with some additions slipping to 2028.. In other words, the build phase is underway, yet the payoff for product supply happens later.. That mismatch between construction timelines and market needs is a big reason shortages can persist even when companies are “doing everything right.”
There’s also a hard reality behind manufacturing scale-ups: fabs are complex. slow to commission. and require stable yields before they become meaningful volume contributors.. Misryoum’s analysis of the situation points to an uncomfortable arithmetic problem for the industry—demand grows. while new supply arrives in steps. not all at once.
AI-focused memory shifts the balance
A key factor in the shortage story is what the new plants are primarily built to produce.. Misryoum notes that much of the added capacity is geared toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM). which is used in AI data centers.. HBM is increasingly prioritized because AI workloads are pushing new performance and throughput requirements that general-purpose DRAM doesn’t fully satisfy.
This matters for everyday electronics in a subtle but important way: the same manufacturing ecosystem is being steered toward the highest-value use cases.. If HBM demand absorbs a bigger share of incoming capacity. less output may be available for the consumer DRAM mix used in phones. laptops. and other mainstream hardware.
Misryoum also flags a tension that consumers may feel even if “more memory is being made.” If the extra supply doesn’t match the exact type of memory devices are buying—especially the general-purpose DRAM that consumer products rely on—price pressure can continue.. That’s why shortages can look counterintuitive: fabs are expanding, yet shoppers still see higher prices.
In practical terms, the consumer impact has already shown up across categories. Misryoum points to rising prices affecting phones, laptops, VR headsets, and gaming handhelds—devices where memory shortages tighten upgrade cycles and raise total build costs for manufacturers.
The demand math: meeting it is harder than it sounds
Misryoum highlights a planning gap between what production would need to do and what it is actually expected to do.. Production would need to increase significantly year over year to close the shortfall quickly. but the increase planned appears smaller than what the market requires.. Even modest differences in growth rates can translate into large supply gaps by the end of a multi-year cycle.
This is where the “years-long” framing comes from.. Memory markets don’t behave like short-term commodity swings; they’re constrained by long equipment lead times and by the time it takes to ramp output to full. repeatable yields.. Once the industry undersupplies, catching up takes more than simply opening the doors to new capacity—it requires sustained acceleration.
Misryoum’s editorial reading is that the most likely outcome is prolonged pressure rather than a sudden recovery.. When supply is consistently behind schedule, pricing doesn’t rebound cleanly.. Instead, it stabilizes only when enough volume arrives broadly across the right DRAM types for consumer devices.
What to expect next for consumers and device makers
For consumers, the immediate signal is continued pricing volatility for the devices most exposed to DRAM costs.. Misryoum expects that manufacturers will keep negotiating tightly and redesigning product tiers to manage component costs.. That can show up as fewer deep discount cycles. higher base configurations. or delayed promotions—especially in segments where memory is a straightforward cost driver.
For device makers, the issue is strategic procurement and product planning.. If memory availability remains uneven. companies can’t simply “buy their way out” quickly; they must manage supply allocations and adjust timelines.. Misryoum’s newsroom view is that this kind of squeeze tends to ripple into inventory decisions. with companies attempting to keep critical SKUs available while trimming optional configurations.
For the broader tech stack, the shortage also shapes how quickly AI-enabled consumer features can scale.. Even if AI capabilities grow, the underlying compute platforms still depend on memory economics somewhere in the chain.. Misryoum suggests that as HBM demand rises, the industry may keep prioritizing data center requirements, making consumer normalization slower.
A longer cycle could reshape the RAM market
If the industry ends up closer to the lower production growth path than the market needs, the shortage could stretch toward 2030 rather than settling within a single year. Misryoum doesn’t frame this as panic, but as a structural adjustment period.
Over the next few years, the memory market may increasingly differentiate between what’s built for AI compute and what’s needed for consumer devices. That split could influence everything from component pricing to device performance expectations.
For now, the most practical takeaway from Misryoum is straightforward: new fabs alone don’t guarantee fast relief.. The combination of delayed ramp-up. the specific focus on HBM. and the mismatch between planned output and market demand is what keeps the RAM squeeze on the table—at least for the near-to-medium term.
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