‘TEXAS SHOCKER’: New Poll Has Democrats Winning Senate AND Governor’s Race

Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D) has been polling consistently ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, but a new poll shows the blue team winning the governor’s race as well.

The polling numbers for President Donald Trump and the GOP have been brutal as his second term has progressed, with Americans’ views on his handling of the economy and immigration — topics on which he had previously outpolled Democrats — taking a dive. The president’s war in Iran has been another issue dragging down his polling, specifically because of its impact on gas prices. And these Republican polling struggles are showing up even in Texas, which has been dominated by the GOP since the 1990s.

The scandal-plagued Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the primary with Trump’s endorsement, but it required a runoff, burned through campaign funds, and put a spotlight on the series of scandals, lawsuits, a bitter divorce from his state senator wife, and other controversies that have dogged the AG for years. For months, Paxton has lagged badly behind Talarico in fundraising and several points behind in the polls.

In the governor’s race, Texas State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) has long been viewed as much more of an underdog against Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX). Unlike Paxton, Abbott has a substantial fundraising lead, plus far higher name recognition from years as governor and previously as the state’s attorney general.

Recent polls have shown Hinojosa slightly behind Abbott. Several election prognosticators still predict Abbott wins re-election, but have notably slid their ratings to the left.

A new poll by Marist University, however, shows Hinojosa ahead of Abbott. The poll was conducted between Sept. 17 and 20 among 1,139 Texas registered voters by live telephone interviews, text message, or online. The margin of error was +/-4.4 percentage points.

This should be viewed in the context of still within the margin of error, but the poll showed 49% of voters supporting Hinojosa, 46% Abbott, 1% another candidate, and 3% undecided or refused to answer.

The Democratic challenger kept almost all Democratic votes (92% to 2% who said they’d vote for Abbott), persuaded some Republicans to cross party lines (9% to 89% for Abbott), and won most Independents (52% Hinojosa, 39% Abbott, 3% other, 7% undecided/refused to answer).

Larry Sabato reacted with surprise to this poll result, posting several tweets calling it a “TEXAS SHOCKER” and when one follower asked if this was a sign of a “blue wave” year, or a tsunami or even a “biblical flood,” he joked, “Where did I leave my ark?”

When asked who they preferred for in the Senate race, 50% of respondents said Talarico, 44% picked Paxton, 2% other, and 4% were undecided or refused to answer. Like Hinojosa, Talarico’s numbers were boosted by winning over almost all Democrats (98% to <1% who supported Paxton), stealing some Republican votes (9% to 87% who stayed with Paxton), and scoring a majority of Independents (55% to 45%).

The generic congressional ballot also had Democrats ahead, with 49% saying they were more likely to vote for a Democrat in their district, 46% a Republican, 1% another candidate, 1% unsure, and 1% did not answer.And again, a similar breakdown with 99% of Democratic voters saying they would vote for a Democrat for Congress and less than 1% voting for a Republican, compared to 91% of Republicans who said they would vote for a GOP congressional candidate and 8% who would support a Democrat.

The pollsters included a chart showing that Texas voters’ preference in congressional races had drifted left since 2024. Currently, Texas’ congressional delegation includes 38 total members, 24 Republicans, 13 Democrats, and one vacant seat.

Screenshot via Marist Poll.

Trump’s favorability is underwater in most areas of the country, and that is true in Texas as well. This Marist poll had 41% of Texas voters with a favorable opinion of the president, 55% unfavorable. Trump has negative favorability with Democrats (a mere 2% favorable, 97% unfavorable) and Independents (29% favorable, 67% unfavorable), and among Republicans, 86% favorable, 13% unfavorable.

With the Texas candidates, Hinojosa had a higher favorability margin but the largest percentage of voters who didn’t know her well yet.

Talarico was just one point up, 45% favorable, 44% unfavorable, 10% unsure/never heard of; Paxton was 33% favorable, 54% unfavorable, 11% unsure/never heard of; Hinojosa was 41% favorable, 30% unfavorable, 27% unsure/never heard of; and Abbott was 43% favorable, 51% unfavorable, 5% unsure/never heard of.

Read the full poll and crosstabs here.

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