stolen election – New polling finds major partisan rifts over what a “stolen” election means, with Republicans and Democrats focused on different threats.
A growing share of Americans say they believe the next federal election could be “stolen,” but they are far from agreeing on what that claim would even look like in practice.
Nearly six years after President Donald Trump and allies tried to overturn the 2020 election results. a recent POLITICO Poll points to deep distrust entering the 2026 midterms.. More than one-third of respondents say it is likely the 2026 midterms will be “stolen. ” while one in four say they do not expect elections to be fair.. Yet the survey also shows that partisan disagreement is shaping how Americans interpret election integrity itself. complicating efforts to rebuild confidence across the political spectrum.
Democrats, according to the poll, are most alarmed by voter intimidation and suppression.. Among people who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, 58% say they worry eligible Americans could be prevented from voting.. Republicans. by contrast. are more focused on fraud concerns: 52% of Trump voters say they are concerned that ineligible people could be allowed to vote.. The result is a mismatch over what threats matter most and what steps would address them.
The poll asked Americans about 11 common election concerns, including issues such as partisan gerrymandering and ballot-related actions.. Respondents were asked whether they viewed those concerns as legitimate parts of election administration or as ways to rig elections.. The survey found Democrats and Republicans showed meaningful disagreement—or lacked consensus—on six of those concerns.
Take mail voting.. Once viewed by many as a routine method to broaden access, it is now a fault line inside the electorate.. A majority of Trump voters now say expanding mail-in voting can be a way to rig elections.. Harris voters see it differently: 59% say expanding mail-in voting is normally fair or always fair.
Another area where the parties diverge sharply is the idea of using immigration enforcement at polling places.. A majority of Harris voters say deploying ICE at polling locations would be more likely to sway election results.. Among Trump voters. 47% say deploying ICE across polling stations would be normally fair or always fair. underscoring how differently the same proposal is interpreted depending on party affiliation.
The White House has sought to ease concerns about immigration enforcement at polling locations.. In a statement. White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said the administration is committed to ensuring Americans have full confidence in election administration. including voter rolls that are accurate and up to date and free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters.
Even with such assurances, the political worry has not gone away.. The report noted that in March. nine state secretaries of state sent a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin seeking confirmation that immigration agents would not be present at polling locations in November.. The dispute illustrates how election-related policy questions are increasingly fought on both legal and political terrain.
Experts who study election systems say the lack of shared definitions is a major barrier to trust.. Stephen Richer. a legal fellow at the Cato Institute and a former Republican county recorder in Maricopa County. Arizona. said Americans do not have a strong working definition of what constitutes a free and fair election.. In his view. even in a scenario where people agree elections are not being manipulated by an implausible extreme scenario. there can still be deep disagreement about whether the election in 2026 meets fairness standards.
Richer also suggested that the question of what happens if ICE appears at voting locations would likely split political coalitions.. He said some advocates on the pro-democracy side would argue that such enforcement would invalidate fairness. while others would say it is not ideal and could have legal remedies without necessarily concluding the election was stolen or should be thrown out.
The polling also captures how Democrats and Republicans are responding to the language that surrounds election integrity.. Trump has repeatedly claimed the 2020 results were “stolen” and has tied that allegation to mail voting. the absence of strict voter ID and proof-of-citizenship requirements.. Those claims have been rejected by courts and election officials that upheld the legitimacy of the 2020 results.. Democrats. meanwhile. the report said. have been bracing for potential interference and considering how to respond if concerns about election legitimacy resurface.
Confidence, however, is not uniformly collapsing.. Nearly half of Americans still say they expect the 2026 midterms to be fair.. But the survey and interviews with election experts suggest that rhetoric from political leaders is filtering down into voters’ expectations about what might go wrong. and who might be responsible.
The report found additional differences when comparing views about the past election and fears about the next one.. Nearly 40% of Harris voters say it is likely the 2026 midterms will be “stolen. ” compared with 16% who believed the 2020 election was stolen—though the comparison is not an exact measure.. Meanwhile. the poll also found Trump voters who doubt 2020 results or fear the 2026 election will be stolen are roughly at similar levels. around 40%.
Looking beyond those broad patterns. some of the widest gaps are attached to specific policy proposals that would reshape voting rules.. About 60% of Harris voters say ICE showing up at polling places would normally or always be a way to steal elections. while 33% of Trump voters say the same.. The mail-in debate shows a mirrored split: 55% of Harris voters say banning mail-in voting could lead to a rigged election. while Trump voters are divided. with 41% saying banning mail-in voting would largely be fair and 42% saying it would be a way to steal an election.
Citizenship and registration rules also create distance between the parties.. The poll covered whether registering to vote should require proof of citizenship. a core objective associated with Trump’s SAVE America Act.. Just under two-thirds of Trump voters say this would always or normally be a fair part of the election process. while 44% of Harris voters agree. though by a smaller margin.
The question of maintaining voter rolls—specifically “purging voter rolls”— also showed partisan separation. Roughly 60% of Harris voters say purging voter rolls is normally or always a way to steal an election, compared with 46% of Trump voters.
There are nonetheless areas where voters appear to align.. The report found pluralities or majorities of both groups say same-day voter registration and signing up new voters outside of churches are largely fair.. Both Trump and Harris voters also said partisan gerrymandering can be a way to steal elections. which comes as officials in both parties have pursued an intensifying redistricting arms race.
On ballot access and ballot handling. the poll found near-majority consensus across both parties that seizing or impounding ballots can be a way to rig results.. Earlier this year. the FBI seized 2020 election ballots from the Fulton County elections office in Georgia. and a federal judge recently ruled that the Justice Department can keep the election records as part of its search.
Taken together, the polling suggests election administration is increasingly viewed through partisan lenses rather than shared rules.. As Wendy Weiser of the Brennan Center for Justice put it. lawmakers in many states have spent recent years passing and introducing measures targeting voter access and making participation harder. while politicizing the mechanics of elections—and that trend has taken its toll on public confidence.
For politicians preparing for the 2026 midterms. the central challenge may not be simply reducing misinformation. but bridging the mismatch in what people think “integrity” requires.. When Republicans fear fraud through the inclusion of ineligible voters and Democrats fear suppression or intimidation that could block eligible voters. even commonly discussed reforms—like mail voting. enforcement at polling places. or registration requirements—are likely to remain contested.
And that definitional gap matters for how voters interpret events as the election approaches.. If Americans cannot agree on what fairness looks like. they may be more likely to treat unexpected outcomes—whether administrative disputes. legal fights. or security decisions—as evidence of a broader scheme. rather than as issues that can be resolved through existing election processes.
As both parties gear up for another cycle of campaign rhetoric and policy debates, the poll’s message is blunt: many Americans are uneasy about the upcoming election, but they are not uneasy for the same reasons.
2026 midterms stolen election election integrity mail voting ICE at polls voter intimidation voter fraud