Arsenal’s advantage – Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham and City’s Everton draw reshape the title race, with the Opta supercomputer giving Arsenal an 86% edge.
A three-week countdown is reshaping the Premier League title race, and Arsenal are suddenly looking like the team most likely to hold their nerve.
Before matchweek 36. Arsenal’s advantage over Manchester City has widened after a decisive swing in results: a comfortable 3-0 home win against Fulham last Saturday. paired with City dropping points in a 3-3 draw at Everton on Monday night.. With the season finale now set for May 24. the immediate picture is simple—Mikel Arteta’s side are in control of the run-in. even with three games still ahead of them. while City retain a route back only if they keep winning.
The timing of the next round of matches adds another layer to the pressure.. Both teams are in action this weekend. but City’s ability to narrow the gap depends on results coming in before the scheduled game in hand.. That game is set against Crystal Palace on Wednesday. when Arsenal and City will effectively be measured against different chunks of the fixture list.
What has changed since the previous matchweek is the balance of momentum—and the tone around the title contenders.. Earlier fears that Arsenal were fading have been met by a renewed sense of control in north London.. The Fulham win. combined with City’s dropped points at Everton. has placed Arsenal back “in the driving seat. ” leaving them five points clear with three matches remaining.. City can reduce that margin to two if they win their game in hand midweek.
For Arsenal, the turnaround has a clear emotional arc tied to how they’ve handled the pressure.. After their 2-1 defeat away to City last month. they responded with a 1-0 home win against Newcastle United. a result that still felt like a team managing mounting stakes rather than playing with freedom.. The Emirates crowd. according to the report’s depiction. was visibly tight throughout. with tension hanging over moments that could have swung either way.
That atmosphere shifted dramatically at the same venue against Fulham last Saturday. when Arsenal delivered a more relaxed. convincing performance that “blew away” their opponents.. The confidence surge continued on Tuesday night. when a 1-0 victory over Atletico Madrid secured Arsenal’s passage to their first Champions League final in 20 years.. The report describes how the nervous tension that had enveloped the Emirates was replaced by something closer to celebration.
City, by contrast, are portrayed as carrying a quieter mood. Even so, they remain in the conversation thanks to a late equaliser from Jeremy Doku at Everton, which kept their hopes alive despite a match that turned against them after City looked in command.
The report argues that Arsenal’s Fulham performance may have been their most fluent attacking display of the Premier League season.. It highlights two key statistical signals: their highest expected goals value of the campaign. and the rarity of scoring three first-half goals in a league game—something they had not done since November 2024.. That early sharpness mattered because it allowed Arsenal to take the foot off the gas and manage the workload ahead of midweek Champions League demands.
Within that 3-0 win. Arsenal’s attacking rhythm followed a familiar pattern under Arteta—danger from the wide areas and dynamic interlinking.. Bukayo Saka is described as looking back to his best on the flanks.. Raul Jimenez is referenced as playing a role in forcing the opening sequence that led to Viktor Gyokeres tapping in. before Saka added a second with a finish near the post.. The scoring moments were also framed as part of Arsenal’s broader ability to attack with purpose before games became stretched.
One of the more notable storylines in the report is Myles Lewis-Skelly’s debut season role in midfield.. He started his first game in the middle this campaign. and the report notes that only William Saliba completed more passes than he did.. Lewis-Skelly is also described as being involved in the majority of Arsenal’s possession sequences—moving between spaces. helping knit together threatening passing moves. and linking deeper control to forward progression.
The mechanics of that control were also a focus.. Lewis-Skelly is said to have frequently dropped deep to receive and build from central defence, picking possession up from Gabriel.. From there. Arsenal could progress the ball through players like Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze. with Eze drifting toward Saka’s side to help establish the right-hand attacking wave that has made Arsenal look particularly dangerous.. In the report’s framing. the impression was that the team’s usual constraints were lifted. and they appeared to have more room to score.
That shift in performance comes with practical implications for the title race.. With Arsenal no longer needing to rely on goal difference to seal the title. the suggestion is that their prospects are not just about avoiding slip-ups—they are also about adding goals while they can. converting control into an even stronger buffer.
Meanwhile. City’s Everton evening offers a separate kind of insight into what Arsenal may be up against as the schedule tightens.. Two days later at Hill Dickinson Stadium. the report points to a lapse in concentration at the back that stalled City’s momentum.. Up to that point, City’s six-game winning run had been grinding forward.
City were largely dominant early at Everton: the report says they controlled 76% of possession and produced 12 shots before halftime. entering the break with a one-goal cushion thanks to Doku’s pinpoint left-foot finish.. But the match narrative changed quickly after halftime when Marc Guehi underhit a back pass to goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. allowing Thierno Barry to steal in and equalise.
After that turning point, Everton’s role in the comeback became a defining element.. The report states Everton generated 82% of expected goals after the hour mark, identifying City’s vulnerability and stepping up physically.. It also describes how Everton packed the penalty area. with Jake O’Brien rising to power them ahead. and how Merlin Rohl broke free from Mateo Kovacic in the build-up to their third.
Whether Doku’s 97th-minute leveller becomes a meaningful swing point for City remains open. but the report’s tone is that it’s another sign of points being left behind—an implication that matters when margins are tight and each dropped result forces the title race to be settled not only on talent. but timing.
The fixtures that remain for both sides are now central to how the title race looks on paper.. Arsenal are positioned as having the easier run-in. at least based on the average Opta Power Ranking of their final matches.. According to the report, all three of Arsenal’s remaining league games are against teams currently in the bottom six.
Even so. the report cautions that motivation at this stage of the season can distort “fixture difficulty.” Take Fulham. Arsenal’s opponent from last Saturday: the report says no Premier League club is more frequently accused of being “on the beach” as campaigns draw to a close.. It notes Fulham’s struggles in May. citing a record of just four wins from their past 18 fixtures played in May. suggesting they often hover in that uncertain zone between chasing something and not quite being pulled into danger.
Arsenal’s next opponent is West Ham United in an away match. and the report describes the scenario as sharply different.. With the east London club fighting for survival and having dropped back into the relegation zone last weekend. West Ham are seen as the tougher test among Arsenal’s remaining fixtures.. The report also points to recent history at the London Stadium. noting that Arsenal’s last two visits there ended with heavy away wins of 5-2 and 6-0.
After West Ham, Arsenal face Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on the final Sunday of the season.. On paper. it can sound like a tricky trip. but the report suggests Palace may rotate heavily due to a Conference League final against Rayo Vallacano of Spain scheduled three days later.. That timing could reduce the intensity of the Premier League meeting, shaping how Arsenal can approach the match.
City’s path, in contrast, is depicted as more demanding in both sequence and opponent quality.. City’s rescheduled game in hand against Palace—previously linked to the March Carabao Cup final weekend—has been confirmed for next Wednesday. May 13. three days before the FA Cup final.. After the FA Cup. the report says City face a daunting trip to Bournemouth. placed sixth. three days after that meeting with Chelsea at Wembley.
Even before the run to the end. the report highlights that City’s weekend fixture against Brentford is not an easy one. given Brentford are seventh and still have European ambitions.. The final match in City’s season is a home game against Aston Villa. which the report frames as City’s likely toughest remaining opponent on paper.
It also describes a key scheduling factor for that Villa match: there is a chance Villa’s objectives may already be secured by then. leaving the game with less at stake beyond pride under Unai Emery.. The emotional load of the wider calendar also looms. because Villa’s game is scheduled just four days after the Europa League final. with the report noting the significance of that transition.
Underpinning all of these scenarios is what the report says the Opta supercomputer expects.. It has believed—since mid-October—that Arsenal hold the advantage, and that belief has fluctuated through the season.. The report notes a sharp dip after Arsenal’s March defeat by City before rising again in recent weeks.
Now, with everything converging toward matchweek 36, the supercomputer’s confidence stands at 86%.. The figure is presented as reflecting both Arsenal’s points edge and the easier nature of their remaining fixtures. even as City retain chances to tighten the race depending on outcomes in the coming matches.
For Arsenal. the broader implication is that their recent form is not only improving. but doing so at the right time: a blend of attacking sharpness. stronger in-game control. and a run-in that could allow them to convert pressure into points.. For City. the message is sharper still—any hope depends on turning late-game events into consistent results. because once the gap becomes points that cannot be recouped. the title race may effectively close before the final weekend.
Premier League title race Arsenal vs Manchester City matchweek 36 Opta supercomputer Champions League final Everton vs Manchester City