The S&P 500 pushed to a new all-time high Wednesday, rising 0.5% as the broad U.S. index cleared its previous record. At the same time, the war with Iran is still ongoing, with energy costs steadily working their way into everyday life and bigger growth forecasts.
The benchmark moved past its prior record high of 7,002.28, last set on Jan. 28. From there, the year’s picture looked more like a roller coaster: after the January peak, the S&P 500 slid 9.8% to a low of 6,316.91 on March 30. That drop was tied to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and the soaring price of oil. Standing in a morning queue, you could almost hear the pause people take at the pump—then move on, because life doesn’t stop for geopolitics.
In the two weeks since that March low, Misryoum newsroom reported that markets appear to have adjusted to the kind of constant uncertainty that comes with a conflict that never really settles. Misryoum analysis indicates the message many traders seem to be taking is simple: treat the war as “over until further notice,” at least for now. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said, “As far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice.” He also described the rebound as “another momentum-led rebound,” comparing it to last year’s explosive rally that started on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs. Actually, the rhythm matters here—stocks don’t wait for clarity.
The rebound has leaned heavily on big technology names. Since the S&P’s low on March 30, a fund that tracks only the “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks is up 14.8%. Meanwhile, a fund measuring the S&P 500 excluding those seven companies is up 8.1%. The “Magnificent 7” are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla. And if you stare at the numbers long enough, it starts to look less like a broad-based victory and more like a very specific bet gaining traction.
Still, the political backdrop keeps moving. Trump has extended his own war-related deadlines several times, paused some of the heaviest bombing, and most recently sent officials to Pakistan for talks with the Iranian regime. Misryoum editorial desk noted that those talks did not result in a deal. The war is in the midst of a ceasefire that doesn’t expire until next Wednesday. Traders, though, seem to be reacting to timing and tone. Wednesday’s rally was partly a reaction to comments Trump made Tuesday night about the war: “I think it’s close to over,” he said on the Fox Business Network. In the same interview, however, he also said that “we’re not finished” with the war yet—so yes, even the optimism comes with a warning label.
The rally also ran against the usual worry that energy prices should weigh on stocks. Since the start of the year, U.S. crude oil has risen by nearly 60%, while international Brent crude oil has jumped more than 55%. Gas prices followed: as of Wednesday morning, the average price of gas per gallon nationwide was $4.10, up more than 37% since the war started. Economists continue warning that high fuel costs will slow the global economy this year. Misryoum analysis indicates that on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.3% and raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.4% from 4.1%. Yet, over the last 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has jumped 9.8%.
Some of that strength is being framed as unusually fast. For reference, that’s now even faster than the bounceback after Liberation Day last year, and we haven’t seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020, Deutsche Bank Research macro strategist Henry Allen wrote in a note Wednesday. Even with that, Misryoum newsroom reported that caution is still showing up. Analysts at ING said overnight that markets
are increasingly pre-empting a positive outcome as the U.S. and Iran prepare for a new round of talks, and that they still think caution is warranted. A new round of in-person talks between the United States and Iran could be held as early as this week, two people familiar with the ongoing negotiations told NBC News—though, of course, those timelines can shift quickly when diplomacy is being tested by real time fighting. And right now,
the market seems to be moving a step ahead of the story it still can’t fully control.
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