Republicans Sound Delusional About Their Fate In The Midterm Elections

WASHINGTON ― The Senate closed up shop this week until after the midterm elections, and Republicans heading out the door seem to be feeling great ― with a sprinkle of delusion ― about their party’s chances of keeping control of Congress after November.

“I think we hold the majority of both chambers,” predicted Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).

“There’s only one issue in this campaign, truly,” the Ohio senator told HuffPost. “If gas was $2.50 a gallon, you guys would be talking about a massive red wave in the midterms…. Gas prices will never drop with Democrats, and I think most voters are realizing that.”

“Feeling good,” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), when asked about his party’s chances of holding its Senate majority. “We’re putting the right, long-term solutions on the table. We just need to get out and tell that story.”

“The people of America don’t want socialism,” he said, “and that’s what the Democrats want.”

It’s good to be optimistic! Politicians in both parties will certainly be trying to put a positive spin on their chances in the coming elections. But GOP senators on Wednesday seemed stunningly detached, whether intentional or not, from what months of polling and interviews with voters have found: President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low, voters are furious at him over the high costs of living, and Democrats nationwide have the edge in races where even six months ago people wouldn’t have expected it.

It’s not really up for debate in Washington that Democrats will retake the House. Historically, a president’s party loses House seats in midterm elections. Republicans barely have a hold on the chamber as it is, with a 218-214 majority, and they’re just not in a good place in this election cycle. Most of their competitive races are in districts that Trump won, due largely to voter anger over Trump’s handling of the economy.

The nonpartisan Cook’s Political Report, which meticulously tracks and rates the partisan leanings of House and Senate seats, is currently projecting Democrats retake the House and pick up five to 15 seats. Other election projections are even more bullish: Nate Silver’s midterms projections give Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House, with the party picking up 20 seats on average.

The Senate is where things get more murky. Democrats would need to flip at least four Senate seats in November to take back the majority, and astoundingly, they are running competitive races in five red states: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Cook’s Political Report currently projects Democrats could pick up between one and five Senate seats.

Silver gives them a 71% chance of flipping the Senate, with the most likely outcome giving the party a five or six-seat pickup.

In Alaska, for example, Democrat Mary Peltola has been narrowly leading two-term incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan for months. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator, has been widening his lead over incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted. The Texas Senate race may be the most shocking, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has been leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in this deep red state.

None of this seemed to factor into what GOP senators had to say, though.

“It doesn’t matter until Election Day, and that’s what matters,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), brushing off a question about Democratic candidates eating into GOP strongholds in states like Kansas, Texas and Nebraska. “We’ve got some very strong candidates.”

“Some days you’re up, some days you’re back,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who will be campaigning for GOP candidates this month in Ohio and Michigan, said with a shrug. “I think it will be a close election.”

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) eagerly predicted Republicans will “absolutely” keep the Senate.

“I think we have an opportunity to go home and remind voters the difference between Democrats and Republicans these days, which is the difference between common sense and crazy,” she told HuffPost, echoing the now-ubiquitous GOP midterms pitch. “I think we’ll also be able to tell them the things that we’ve done, but also that we’ve got some work to do.”

What was also strange was hearing Republicans encourage GOP colleagues in tight races to tie themselves to Trump, despite his deep unpopularity. The president this week kicked off a 32-day midterm campaign blitz, during which he plans to attend rallies with Republicans in tough races. So far, though, he’s only visited Trump-loving safe spots.

“He’s going out there and making certain that he’s campaigning with the candidates that matter,” Moreno said of the president. He dismissed the idea that Trump’s presence could be a drag on vulnerable Republicans, again saying voters are mad about gas costs, not at the president, and blamed the media for making people even more mad at him.

“Number one, gas prices. And number two, a media that just does not let up,” said the Ohio Republican. “I watch CNN literally every morning … every night. Can you say something positive or neutral? I mean, it’s like a constant barrage. So people absorb that, and then when they’re angry because of gas prices, those punches land.”

Britt said she was looking forward to seeing the president out on the campaign trail, noting that he’d be with her in Alabama this week.

“It’s all hands on deck, because there’s a lot at stake,” she said.

Even among Republicans sounding the alarm about their party’s electoral chances, there was little appetite to see vulnerable candidates back away from Trump.

“I do not think they should be separating from the president,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told HuffPost. “I think that’s a knee-jerk reaction.”

Justice, who said he thought the midterms would be “tough” for Republicans, nonetheless reasoned that voters wouldn’t be swayed by candidates who distanced themselves from the president with just a month to go before Election Day. “The voters are going to say, ‘If you did that now, why didn’t you do it four months ago, six months ago?’” he said. “Why not just be proud of what we’ve done and everything moving forward?”

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who isn’t seeking reelection and whose Senate seat appears on track to be scooped up by a Democrat, offered a more nuanced take on whether his GOP colleagues in tight races should join Trump on campaign stages.

“In some states, I want to see him. In other states, he should treat it like Three Mile Island,” said Tillis, referring to a nuclear power plant site in Pennsylvania that was the worst commercial nuclear accident in U.S. history.

He would not say for which states he was comparing a Trump visit to a nuclear disaster.

Tillis also warned the midterms could be a catastrophe for the GOP if candidates can’t show they are independent of Trump: “This fealty test … could lead to our undoing.”

Justice, too, offered a sobering take for his GOP colleagues on how November might shake out.

“I feel really concerned,” said the West Virginia Republican. “I expressed that concern four or five months ago, and a lot of people didn’t listen. Now you’ve got folks that really didn’t think that they would have a competitive race. And now it’s like, ‘Uh-oh.’”