Republicans get fresh warning sign as President Donald Trump’s approval rating with college-educated Americans falls sharply in recent weeks
President Donald Trump‘s approval rating among college-educated Americans has declined for three consecutive weeks, a trend that could add to Republican difficulties as the party defends a narrow House majority ahead of the midterm elections.
According to Economist/YouGov polling, Trump’s approval among college graduates fell from 34 percent in the survey to 31 percent in the August poll and then to 30 percent. Over the same period, disapproval rose from 63 percent to 69 percent, widening Trump’s net deficit among college graduates from 29 points to 39 points.
Why the trend matters for Republicans
The decline is politically significant because college graduates have become a key part of the Democratic coalition, while Trump’s 2024 victory relied more heavily on voters without four-year degrees.
About two-thirds of Trump’s 2024 voters did not hold a college degree, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. College graduates made up 48 percent of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters.
Republicans currently hold the House by a 220-213 margin over Democrats, with two vacancies. Democrats therefore need only a small net gain to reclaim the majority, according to Wikipedia’s tally of the House elections.
National polling averages compiled by Polymarket also showed Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly six to seven points while Trump’s job approval remained in the high 30s across aggregated surveys.
What the polls show
The decline reflects both weaker approval and stronger opposition among college graduates who already disapproved of Trump.
In the Economist/YouGov poll, 34 percent of college graduates approved of Trump’s job performance and 63 percent disapproved. Fifty-four percent strongly disapproved. The survey questioned 1,536 U.S. adult citizens, including 504 college graduates.
In the poll, approval fell to 31 percent while disapproval rose to 68 percent. The share who strongly disapproved increased to 57 percent. The survey included 1,592 adults, including 563 college graduates.
The poll showed another decline, with 30 percent approving and 69 percent disapproving. Sixty-one percent strongly disapproved.
Trump performed better among Americans without college degrees in the same survey. Forty-one percent approved of his job performance and 57 percent disapproved, giving him an 11-point approval advantage over college graduates.
College graduates also gave Trump negative ratings on several key issues. Twenty-eight percent approved of his handling of the economy, while 72 percent disapproved. On inflation, 25 percent approved and 73 percent disapproved. His ratings on taxes and government spending were also underwater.
The polls’ overall margins of error ranged from approximately 3.4 to 3.5 percentage points. YouGov did not publish a separate margin of error for the college-graduate subgroup, meaning some week-to-week movement could reflect normal polling variation.
Still, three consecutive surveys moving in the same direction show Trump’s net rating among college graduates deteriorating by 10 points in less than three weeks.
White House response
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended Trump’s record when asked about the broader decline in his approval rating.
“The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda,” Ingle told Newsweek.
The broader political backdrop
The education divide reflects a wider pattern in Trump’s approval ratings.
A separate Economist/YouGov survey published in mid-August and reported by The Hill found that 33 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s job performance, while 62 percent disapproved. The partisan divide was stark: 79 percent of Republicans approved, compared with 4 percent of Democrats.
The Economist‘s polling tracker, which uses YouGov survey data, reported in June that Trump had become the most unpopular president recorded in its tracker, with a net approval rating of negative 25 percentage points.
Pollsmax showed Trump’s disapproval exceeding his approval across nearly every major pollster it tracked in late August and early September. The September 8 Economist/YouGov survey showed a 35-point disapproval margin, while an NBC News poll conducted around September 1 showed a 28-point margin.
Historical patterns provide additional context. Presidents with approval ratings below 45 percent heading into a midterm election have historically seen their party lose 35 or more House seats, according to an analysis by US Polling Data.
Over the past 92 years of midterm elections, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of 27 House seats, according to Slate‘s review of midterm history.
What it could mean for November
The Economist/YouGov survey also showed a substantial education gap in congressional preferences.
Fifty-seven percent of college graduates said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 28 percent who favored the Republican candidate — a 29-point Democratic advantage.
Among voters without a college degree, Republicans led 39 percent to 33 percent.