Republicans get fresh odds of flipping New Hampshire as race between former Sen. John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas grows increasingly competitive

Republicans are seeing a glimmer of hope in New Hampshire as they make efforts to flip the seat being left vacant by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. The Cook Political Report has moved the rating for the New Hampshire race from “lean” Democratic to a toss-up as polls suggest a tight general election battle between former Sen. John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. The shift is significant for the GOP because Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010.

Polls show a tight race, with Republicans gaining a slight edge

A late August University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43%, marking a shift from earlier polling that kept Pappas ahead. The pollster had Pappas ahead 49-42 in April and 47-44 in June.

A Saint Anselm College poll from August had Pappas leading Sununu 48% to 41%. A co/efficient survey conducted September 9-11 showed the candidates tied at 46%, while 9% of voters said they were undecided, further strengthening the possibility that the race could go in either candidate’s favor.

RealClearPolitics currently lists the contest as a toss-up as well, although its polling average gives Pappas a slight advantage: 45.5% to Sununu’s 41.5%.

While both candidates are underwater in terms of favorability ratings, Sununu is doing visibly better with a net rating of -7 percentage points, compared to Pappas’ -14 point rating.

Undecided voters could ‘ultimately break for Democrats’

The Cook Political Report pointed to conflicting poll results about the New Hampshire race, highlighting the possibility of a competitive contest with a hard-to-predict outcome. Cook wrote in part, “When it comes to the Senate race, some Democratic polling has the race within the margin of error (though others have Pappas with a more comfortable lead) but GOP polling has shown the race tied or with Sununu ahead. It is possible that most of the undecided voters will ultimately break for Democrats, but it’s hard to forecast outcomes in the famously independently-minded state until the race fully engages.” Notably, the shift from “lean” Democratic to a toss-up is significant because New Hampshire has not elected a Republican senator in 16 years.

A ‘red flag’ for Democrats

Craig Agranoff, a Florida Atlantic University political professor, said in a statement that the current polling trend could spell bad news for Democratic prospects to retain the New Hampshire seat. In a statement to Newsweek, he said, “It’s a red flag because of the combination, not just one poll. You have a well-known Republican in John Sununu, an open Democratic seat, tightening surveys, and outside Republican money flowing in. That is how a ‘lean’ Democrat race becomes a toss-up. It does not mean Democrats lose NH. It means they have to spend time and money here instead of putting all of it into flipping Republican seats.”

GOP pours money into New Hampshire race

The New Hampshire race has attracted significant funding from national Republicans, putting Sununu on track to hold a $20 million advantage, according to The Cook Political Report. The forecaster reported, “Sununu allies have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin.”