Republican Florida Sen. Ashley Moody issues ‘special election alert’ warning supporters her race against Democrat Angie Nixon is a ‘dead heat’

Florida Republican Sen. Ashley Moody’s campaign is sounding the alarm over her special election battle against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon after two recent polls showed the candidates virtually tied.

Ashley Moody’s ‘special election alert’

Moody’s campaign sent supporters a “special election alert” on Friday, September 18, warning that the race for the Senate seat formerly held by Marco Rubio had become a “dead heat.”

“Two polls. Two dead heats. Trump-backed Ashley Moody is tied with Angie Nixon in the biggest Senate special election of 2026 – for the seat Marco Rubio held for fourteen years,” the campaign wrote.

A Nixon victory would give Democrats a significant pickup as the party seeks control of the Senate in November. No Democrat has won statewide in Florida since 2018, while Republicans hold a substantial voter-registration advantage.

Competitive polling numbers

The Moody campaign highlighted surveys from St. Pete Polls and Change Research.

St. Pete Polls surveyed 913 likely Florida voters and found Moody at 45.2 percent compared with Nixon at 44.8 percent, a difference of just 0.4 percentage points. The September 15-17 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Nixon led among independents, 49.8 percent to 37.4 percent, and voters ages 18 to 29, 63.7 percent to 25.3 percent. Moody led among non-Hispanic white voters, 53.4 percent to 38.7 percent, and voters 70 or older, 61.1 percent to 31.9 percent. Demographic results carry greater uncertainty because of smaller subgroup samples.

Change Research surveyed 1,107 likely voters for Freedom Project USA from September 7-9 and found Moody and Nixon tied at 47 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Another recent poll, however, showed a wider gap. Quantus Insights surveyed 733 likely voters from September 8-10 and put Moody at 50 percent and Nixon at 43 percent, with a 4.1-point margin of error.

Republicans’ hold in Florida

The close surveys come despite Florida’s recent Republican tilt. By late July, Republicans held a roughly 1.5 million-voter registration advantage over Democrats. President Donald Trump carried Florida by 13 points in 2024, while Republican Senate candidates won by double-digit margins in both 2022 and 2024.

Polling averages also show Moody ahead overall. RealClearPolling’s recent average puts Moody at 48.3 percent and Nixon at 43.3 percent, a five-point difference.

Still, the two near-tied September surveys show a race that is substantially closer than Florida’s recent statewide election results.