President Donald Trump’s immigration policy, push for more ICE raids could cost U.S. citizens millions of jobs, new study finds: ‘Our economic future is being eroded,’ economist says

A joint analysis by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) found that expanded immigration enforcement under President Donald Trump could eliminate roughly 6 million jobs, with U.S.-born workers bearing much of the fallout.

The report comes less than two months before the midterm elections, as rising grocery and gas prices weigh on voters nationwide.

Titled “Citizenship and the Affordability Agenda: A Path to Better Jobs, Higher Wages and Prosperity for All,” the study is the third installment in the ACLU’s “affirmative vision” series examining the economic effects of the Trump administration’s deportation agenda.

What the report found

According to the ACLU and AFL-CIO, immigration raids and detentions are disrupting supply chains that connect immigrant and U.S.-born workers. Businesses losing immigrant workers often respond by cutting operations, delaying projects and reducing hiring rather than replacing those workers with citizens.

The report states that immigrants make up about one in five workers in the U.S. economy and removing a workforce of that size can strain employers’ ability to generate revenue and pay remaining employees.

Michael A. Clemens, an immigration economist at Johns Hopkins University said, “Researchers now know that mass deportation reduces native employment, raises the price of food, housing and eldercare and ICE raids slash economic activity overall, which eliminates jobs for U.S. natives.”

He added, “These are not opinions but findings from quantitative analysis at high academic standards, with careful attention to distinguishing correlation and causation. Few people will be driven to the polls by today’s strawberry prices. But they might be driven to the polls by the growing evidence that our economic future is being eroded by the numb policy of enforcement-without-reform.”

Clemens added that while few voters are likely to be swayed by the price of strawberries alone, growing evidence of economic strain tied to enforcement-heavy policies could affect turnout.

Naureen Shah, director of government affairs for the ACLU’s Equality Division, said continued ICE raids can produce compounding costs, including lost jobs, higher prices and damage to local businesses. She argued that a broad pathway to citizenship is the policy most likely to ease affordability pressures.

Political reaction

Lauren Bis, a White House spokesperson, told Newsweek that the surge in illegal immigration between 2020 and 2024 had already burdened Americans by fueling inflation and suppressing wages.

She said the administration’s agenda is focused on creating jobs for American workers, enforcing immigration law and sustaining economic growth.

Matt Wylie, a Republican strategist, told Newsweek that family budgets are under pressure from tariffs, trade disputes and the fallout from conflict with Iran. He argued that voters will decide the midterms based on who they trust to lower food and fuel costs and characterized the ACLU and AFL-CIO report as an attempt to connect those economic concerns to a broader political agenda.

AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said working people are absorbing the cost of an immigration system that destabilizes industries and leaves workers vulnerable to exploitation. She added that billionaires — not immigrants — stand between workers and good jobs.

Price increases tied to labor shortages

The report cites an analysis from Economic Insights and Research Consulting, based partly on Consumer Price Index data, linking sharper-than-average price growth to sectors that rely heavily on immigrant labor.

Lettuce prices rose 32.1 percent, fresh milk prices rose 9 percent, home health care costs rose 10.7 percent and landscaping services rose 10.8 percent.

The ACLU and AFL-CIO argue that labor shortages caused by enforcement actions are prompting employers to pass higher operating costs on to consumers.

Business activity and an “economy of fear”

The report describes a broader chilling effect from visible enforcement operations, arguing that fear of raids has kept workers home, discouraged consumer spending and reduced foot traffic at businesses.

Citing University of Pennsylvania research from May, the report estimates that ICE raids have resulted in 8.1 billion fewer visits to American businesses, translating to between $3 billion and $14 billion in annual losses.

The report also points to Minnesota, where businesses reportedly lost between $10 million and $20 million per week during and after a federal operation known as “Operation Metro Surge.”

Housing and construction impact

The analysis estimates that nearly 20 percent of the U.S. construction workforce could be affected by deportation enforcement, potentially eliminating 1.4 million construction jobs, including 860,000 held by U.S.-born workers.

Citing previous research, the report’s authors linked immigration enforcement to nearly 2,000 fewer completed homes per state annually and an 18 percent increase in home prices.

Federal spending context

The report notes that Congress has directed at least $240 billion toward immigration enforcement even as funding has been reduced for programs including SNAP, Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies, with some allotments allowed to lapse.

The midterms angle

The report’s release comes as Republican candidates face pressure to address affordability concerns ahead of the midterms, while the administration has sought to attribute current costs to the policies of former President Joe Biden, who left office in January 2025.

Clemens said the economic effects described in the report are likely to compound gradually, becoming more visible in sectors with heavy immigrant representation, including food production, food preparation, caregiving, construction and hospitality, as enforcement continues.

The ACLU and AFL-CIO report projects that expanding pathways to citizenship could raise U.S. GDP by nearly $2 trillion over a decade while lifting wages. The authors acknowledge, however, that new immigration legislation has historically struggled to pass Congress.

Clemens said the realistic alternative to continued mass enforcement is not the absence of immigration law, but reform that reflects the needs of an aging population and a changing economy.