Patriots experts – After a 14-3 season and a Super Bowl run, New England’s 2026 schedule is drawing a chorus of predictions for a worse regular-season record. Most projections land around 10 wins, with analysts pointing to a brutal midseason stretch, extensive road games, and to
New England’s 2026 schedule doesn’t just look harder on paper, it’s reshaping expectations the same way last season’s schedule helped set up the Patriots’ 14-3 run.
All 32 NFL teams released their schedules for 2026. and the Patriots’ slate is loaded with major matchups after they emerged as AFC champions and fell to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. their first appearance since 2018.. Where 2025 finished with ease, experts say 2026 is built for a steeper climb.
A central thread across predictions: the AFC East champions from last season are likely to win fewer games than the year before.
Chad Graff is among the most prominent voices forecasting the drop.. He projects the Patriots to finish 10-7 and place second in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills.. Graff points to what he called New England’s toughest stretch. Weeks 12 through 15. when the Patriots face the Los Angeles Chargers. Bills. Minnesota Vikings. and Kansas City Chiefs.
Graff argued that while the Patriots could lean on a weak schedule a year ago—calling it a hot topic after a “plethora of easy games”—they won’t be able to make the same case with that four-game stretch.. He also said New England made several improvements in the offseason after a brutal Super Bowl loss. but expects they won’t fully offset the schedule shift.
“I do think the Patriots are a better football team than they were the day they walked off the field in Santa Clara after the Super Bowl. ” Graff said. adding that they benefited previously from “a historically easy schedule and relative good fortune with keeping players healthy. ” conditions he believes are unlikely to repeat.
Other predictions hew close to the same range.. Mike Clay tabbed New England for 10 victories, based on projected win probabilities.. Clay’s breakdown also reflects the uncertainty around specific weeks: he gave the Patriots a 32 percent chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 1. while assigning them a 93 percent chance of defeating the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.. ESPN. meanwhile. ranked New England’s strength of schedule at 21 among all 32 teams—describing it as one of the more difficult slates in the league.
Mike Reiss pointed to another key factor: the Patriots’ road-heavy start.. Reiss wrote that New England was the only team to win every game away from home last season. but the NFL “amped up the challenge” for 2026. with seven of their first 11 games on the road.. He noted that three of the first four games are away from home. and that all of those opponents made the playoffs in 2025.. Reiss also said four of the Patriots’ five primetime games are on the road.
Across the predictions, there is also room for optimism—especially if New England lands on the right side of a handful of swing matchups.
Henry McKenna predicted a 10-win season and suggested the Patriots won’t fall out of contention. “It’s actually rare for a Super Bowl loser to miss the playoffs altogether,” McKenna said, arguing that New England has continued to invest in its weakness on offense and added depth to its defense.
At FOX, the Patriots were also viewed through the lens of roster upgrades.. FOX cited additions meant to bolster multiple areas, including Alijah Vera-Tucker on the offensive line and wide receiver Romeo Doubs.. The platform also flagged a potential looming trade that could alter New England’s ceiling: a rumored post–June 1 move involving Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J.. Brown.. It said such a trade could give Drake Maye a clear No.. 1 wide receiver as he looks to build on his MVP runner-up campaign from 2025.
Karen Guregian’s outlook matched the “around 10 wins” theme at 10-7. though her season arc leans toward that belief the Patriots can’t string together many long streaks.. She doesn’t think New England will manage more than a two-game win streak at any point.. Her losses include Seattle (Week 1). Buffalo (Week 4). Chicago (Week 7). Detroit (Week 10). the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 12). Kansas City (Week 15). and Denver (Week 17).
Phil Perry also landed on 10-7 and predicted the Patriots would “squeak into the playoffs” with a wild-card spot.. Perry forecast a specific upset target. saying he picked New England to beat the Detroit Lions in Munich. Germany. in Week 10.. He emphasized five “uber-important” games that could determine whether New England competes for the second straight postseason—listing Jacksonville. Chicago. Green Bay. Detroit. and the Los Angeles Chargers.. Perry said those matchups are difficult but all are winnable. adding that if the Patriots come out ahead in enough of them. “you’re a playoff team in my opinion.”
Not everyone expects the steepest drop.. Brian Hines gave the most optimistic prediction at 12-5. listing five losses: Week 1 at Seattle. Week 4 at Buffalo. Week 7 at Chicago. Week 9 vs.. Green Bay, and Week 12 at the Los Angeles Chargers.. Hines’s 12-win projection is just two fewer than New England’s 14 wins in 2025.
Jordy McElroy projected 11 wins. predicting the Patriots will beat the Seahawks in Week 1—an unconventional pick given that early underdog framing.. McElroy said the Patriots will be “much better” in 2026 compared to last season’s Super Bowl-competing squad. while also noting that their win total will dip because the schedule is significantly harder.
Matt Verderame offered the most cautious forecast among the listed projections, at 9-8.. He cited the organization’s “muddy offseason off the field” tied to the Mike Vrabel-Dianna Russini fiasco.. Verderame also pointed directly to the schedule change. saying New England is going from one of the league’s easiest slates over the past 30 years to a 2026 docket that includes “a whopping five road games against 2025 playoff teams. ” along with trips to Kansas City and Detroit.
For Patriots fans who saw what a favorable path can do—how a 14-3 season turned into an AFC title and a trip to Super Bowl LX—the coming year may feel like a reality check.. The experts broadly agree on the same basic consequence: 2026’s challenge is likely to cost New England wins. even if the team itself looks improved.
New England Patriots 2026 schedule NFL predictions 14-3 season Super Bowl LX Drake Maye A.J. Brown trade rumors Chad Graff Mike Clay Mike Reiss