After dropping their first two games of the season to UMass and Boston College, Rutgers is set to open Big Ten play today as they take on USC at 3:30 at home. This is the Trojans’ first road game of the season and their first-ever cross-country trek to Piscataway. As is tradition here at OnTheBanks, the staff will try to guess the score of the game and give context as to why they think that way.
As I mentioned before in my preview of this game, this game can get ugly very quickly. USC’s offense, even without WR Trent Mosely (who has been ruled out) is very explosive and will be too much for the Knights’ defense to handle. Jayden Maiava is considered one of the best passers in college football, and considering Rutgers struggled to stop both UMass and Boston College, it becomes very likely that the Trojans are going to score in bunches. On the flip side, the miscues on offense show that they likely won’t have the horses to keep up or even come close to keeping up, for that matter. It will be interesting to see who is named the starting quarterback after rough performances from both Surace and Lonergan, but one likely won’t be a huge needle mover compared to the other. Rutgers will get on the board, largely due to the fact that USC’s defense hasn’t looked stellar the first few weeks, but the Trojans will likely bury them in points and hit the over with no issue.
ESPN’s FPI has only two Rutgers’ games as over 20% probability of winning; this isn’t one of them.
The Trojans are 3-0; they’ve scored 131 points – that’s 47 ppg. In two games RU has given up 56 in a very ugly manner. On the flip side the Knights have scored just 42 and given up 65. You do the math.
Is Rutgers as bad as they looked against UMass? Probably not but this isn’t UMass. Schiano can be pretty inspirational, and he claims and I believe he gets high character kids so maybe they hang….but for how long? And looking down the road, at some point during the season, could he lose the locker room?
Any Vegas line is made to draw action, so a 23.5 point spread is looking at that. If you think USC will cover, you put down money. Too high, no one drops a dime. Easy decision.
This game will likely be the funeral for the “chop.” Thanks for the memories, even if they weren’t so great.
Any sense of optimism in this game has been squandered by woeful performances from the Scarlet Knights. The last time a top 15 team visited the banks, we watched Rutgers lose by 46 points. I do not see any reason for that score gap to significantly change this time around, why should I given the performance? While Rutgers surely had chances to force Boston College into overtime, or even outright win the game, I cannot in good faith say that this situation will happen again. They looked better last week, but far from competent.
This lack of competency rests especially in the quarterback position, and while a vast majority of readers want AJ Surace to start, I respectfully do not agree with them. There should be limited confidence in any quarterback who throws four interceptions in one game, let alone three like Dylan Lonergan. Rutgers has three other quarterbacks on the roster, and there should be no reason for Sean Ashenfelder to not play once this game becomes a blowout. He will likely throw two beautiful garbage time touchdowns to KJ Duff, inspiring a glimmer of hope for the Howard game next week.
Jayden Maiava currently sits at +2500 for the Heisman, and frankly this will be the perfect game to have a mammoth performance. With USC facing a daunting remaining schedule stacked with top-tier conference opponents, Maiava needs to pad his stat sheet now while the opportunity exists.
First there was the UMassacre, then it was the Boston Massacre, and now we’ll have the USCatastrophe.
The feeling around this game has completely gone negative after the first two weeks of the season — and rightfully so. If Rutgers were 2-0 with a couple ugly victories, would this be different? Probably a little but it is still USC coming in with one of the best offenses in the nation.
On the other hand, the Rutgers defense has struggled once again. The quarterback position continues to be a mess with no answers while the coaching staff looks like they are in way over their heads, and that includes Greg Schiano who has been a head coach for a long time. And the test this week is against Lincoln Riley. There is no indication that Rutgers can keep this game close. The line has gone down over the last few days after opening around 26. That will be the major question here. The game’s outcome feels decided.
Schiano claimed that his team is going to beat someone that fans do not expect. Well, they are having a hard time beating teams they should beat so that is another tough spell from coach-speak. Even if it does happen, it will not be here.
The expectation coming into this game before the season was that Rutgers would be coasting in at 2-0 with two easy nonconference wins… and even if the Scarlet Knights were good, they would lose. Because there is a realistic ceiling, and because until a top-25 upset happens, it will continue to be something fans discuss instead of reality.
However, two games in, Rutgers has a myriad of problems on both sides of the football, has an 0-2 record against two of the bottom-dwelling FBS teams, and now the competition ramps up an insane amount. Even without Trent Mosely, the Trojans feature a full buffet of talented skill players, including a dangerous running back duo in Waymond Jordan and King Miller and Knights fans will be treated to elite quarterback play from the other sideline when Jayden Maiava (completing 80.7% of his passes) visits New Jersey tomorrow.
On defense, USC possesses a physical defensive line, including top five-star recruit and true freshman Luke Wafle on the edge and team captain Alex VanSumeren in the middle. Despite also having a strong back seven, the Trojans’ defense has been suspect by allowing 26 points to San Jose State in their season opener and 30 to Louisiana in a more competitive affair (though they did shut out Fresno State 39-0 in the second game).
Whichever way Rutgers goes at QB, both Lonergan and Surace have struggled, and the offensive line has looked vulnerable and outmatched by UMass and Boston College. The main question will be how much Rutgers can score on a vulnerable defense, but that defense is still likely stronger than either Massachusetts program, and the Knights have struggled to take advantage of their opportunities even when presented with a short field.
This is not going to be 28-21 again. Expect USC to nearly hit the over-under by itself, while the Rutgers offense provides a few KJ Duff touchdowns in an otherwise lost afternoon in Piscataway. And with Greg Schiano refusing to take points, I am not so sure we can count on too many Dane Pizarro field goals either. Trojans take it easily.