BUDAPEST, Hungary — Few leaders have shaped European right-wing populism quite like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. For years, his style didn’t just survive pressure from Brussels and Western watchdogs, it kind of fed on it.
On Sunday, though, he faces the biggest test of his 16-year authoritarian rule as Hungary holds a parliamentary election. There were early signs of record turnout hours after polls opened, according to the National Election Office. The campaign has been febrile in a way that feels almost exhausting—allegations of “false flag” operations, wiretapping, and even an alleged sex tape plot.
Usually, an election barely dented Orbán’s momentum. He went into the vote as the great survivor on Europe’s political stage, holding power since 2010 through four back-to-back victories—each time steadily tightening his grip on the judiciary and media. European Union lawmakers and many Western watchdogs no longer consider Hungary a full democracy, and Misryoum newsroom reporting has reflected how much of the political atmosphere is shaped long before election day even arrives.
This time, the mood changes. Orbán trails in most polls, and Vice President JD Vance has flown to Budapest this week in an attempt to reverse his ally’s ailing electoral forecast. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also voiced support for Orbán, who has repeatedly positioned himself as a lone dissenting voice among E.U. leaders—opposing sanctions on Russia and calling for warmer relations with Moscow. You could feel the tension in the spaces around politics too—on Sunday morning, outside a polling station, the air had that metallic cold you get before daylight fully breaks, and people moved quicker than they needed to.
Leading the polls is Peter Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s Fidesz party who now leads his own center-right party, Tisza (a portmanteau of “respect” and “freedom” in Hungarian). A Publicus poll published Friday found Tisza at 52% support and Fidesz at 39% among decided voters, with a quarter of Hungarians undecided. Government-aligned pollsters have been more generous to the incumbent. Alapjogokért Központ, a Christian-conservative think tank that co-organizes the now-annual CPAC Hungary events, had Orbán leading 50%-42% in late March. (And sure, those numbers are already giving people room to argue—maybe this is all closer than it looks, maybe not.)
The uncertainty is also shaped by a political map that has been redrawn in favor of Orbán’s party, and by the nearly half a million ethnic Hungarians eligible to vote from neighboring Romania and Serbia. As in previous Hungarian elections, watchdogs have warned the contest may be free but not fair. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said in a report last month that interlocutors had raised concerns about a lack of separation between the state and the ruling party’s campaign, as well as fears that broad powers under the ongoing state of emergency in Hungary could be misused during the election.
Magyar frames the vote as a “referendum” on Hungary’s place in the world: a choice between Orbán’s self-described “illiberal” path allied with Putin, and reintegration with the E.U. and the West. After casting his ballot, Magyar told reporters that the election was “a choice between East or West, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life.” Orbán, 62, said the campaign had been “a great national moment on our side,” adding: “I’m here to win.” And then, almost abruptly, the day keeps going—ballots in, arguments still running, everyone waiting to see which version of Hungary comes out when the numbers finally settle.
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