NOAA and NIFC warn that May wildfire risk is above normal in parts of the Southwest and elsewhere, amid heat and red-flag alerts.
A new wildfire risk map is putting states on notice for May, as dangerously hot weather sweeps parts of the Southwest and forecasters warn of elevated odds of significant wildland fire activity.
According to the latest national climate assessment issued last Friday. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said several states are expected to experience “significant wildland fire potential” this month.. The warning arrives as an early-season heat wave is baking parts of California and Arizona. with temperatures pushed well into the 100s in some of the hardest-hit areas.
NOAA’s report described the risk as above normal across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains. as well as along the southeastern coastal region. stretching from the central Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic.. It ties the unusually early conditions to the seasonal timing that can leave vegetation primed for rapid growth in fire behavior.
The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) provided one-month details in its wildland fire outlook. showing where those impacts are expected to land geographically.. In that outlook. an above-average chance for significant wildland fire potential in May was identified across the eastern half of Arizona. southern Utah. western New Mexico. and northwestern Minnesota. along with all of Florida.
The NIFC list also includes southern Alabama, southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and eastern Virginia. Other parts of the country were expected to see a normal risk level, with no states projecting below-average chances for significant wildland fire potential.
While the map highlights May, the broader warning is informed by the season’s early momentum.. In its most recent outlook, NIFC’s predictive services noted the U.S.. entered late April with fire activity already running well above average: 1,848,210 acres burned as of April 30, and 24,066 wildfires reported.. Those figures were described as far above the historical benchmarks used for comparison. underscoring how quickly conditions can escalate when multiple factors align.
At the same time. drought coverage was increasing. with nearly 62 percent of the country in drought at the time of the report.. That matters because dry fuels can lower the threshold for a fire to spread. increasing the likelihood that an ignition becomes a larger and more resource-intensive incident.
The heat wave over the West is adding to that risk. In Southern California, an extreme heat warning was in place earlier in the week, and as of Tuesday, Phoenix, Arizona remained under an extreme heat warning. Less severe heat advisories persisted across Central California.
Forecasters say heat alone doesn’t automatically translate into large fires. but it can help set the stage when it coincides with very dry air and gusty winds.. Fire weather warnings in California. Arizona. and Utah this week emphasized those combined ingredients. which can rapidly raise fire behavior potential even before the traditional peak of the season.
The warnings included red flag alerts, which are issued when critical conditions are occurring or expected soon.. Multiple red flag warnings urged residents to avoid outdoor burning because a fire that starts could spread quickly.. While the exact locations for red flag conditions can shift from day to day. the warnings point to how swiftly spring conditions can move parts of the region into “critical” fire weather territory.
California’s trajectory illustrates how seasonal risk can change over time. As of the most recent NIFC outlook, California was not expected to have an above-average chance at significant wildfire potential in May, but the outlook changes as summer progresses.
In June, Northern California is forecast to face an above-average risk of significant wildfire potential, and that risk expands slightly in July to cover more of the region. In August, the outlook is described as remaining relatively stable.
Even with the concerning risk assessment, forecasters emphasize that “significant” fire potential is not a promise of major fires. The designation is an evaluation of where and when conditions are more likely to produce incidents requiring substantial suppression resources.
Still. the combination of early-season heat in the desert Southwest and critical fire-weather alerts in parts of California is driving heightened attention to May—because it is during these transitional periods that the balance between readiness and rapid escalation can be most challenging for communities and firefighting operations.
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