The Nevada football team hosts Air Force on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Falcons with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Air Force (1-1, 0-0) at Nevada (1-2, 0-0)
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)
Surface: FieldTurf
Weather: High of 75; low of 51 (10 percent chance of rain)
TV/Radio: FS1/105.7 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Air Force favored by 5.5; total of 50.5
All-time series: Air Force leads, 6-2
Last matchup: Air Force won, 22-19, on Nov. 23, 2024 (in Reno)
Three keys to the game
1. No wasted possessions: We don’t want to be masters of the obvious, but Nevada needs to stop turning the ball over after posting seven giveaways (against zero takeaways) in its last two games, both losses. This was an issue last year and remains one this season. But it’s even more important to avoid wasted possessions against Air Force, a team that melts the clock with its run game and limits how often its opponent gets the ball. Nevada will be fortunate to get 10 offensive possessions in this game, so a multiple-turnover contest would be even more penalizing than usual. The Wolf Pack has had at least two turnovers in 15 of its last 20 contests. That can’t happen Saturday if Nevada is going to upset Air Force.
2. Win on first down (defensively): Nevada has allowed just 20.3 ppg, marking a solid start to the year. But it showed some weakness against the run last week at Middle Tennessee, which ran for 157 yards (although only 4.1 yards per carry). Nevada’s three foes have focused on the run, with 56 percent of the Wolf Pack opponents’ plays being rushes. Nevada is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, which it will take, especially against Air Force, a triple-option outfit that would prefer to run the ball every play. Nevada can’t allow that to happen, and that comes down to first down. If the Falcons rip off 5 yards a carry on first down, it will stay on schedule and dictate how it plays on offense. The Pack defense needs to win on first down to force Air Force into uncomfortable situations, which isn’t easy. Falcons opponents only have two tackles for loss this season. Nevada needs to keep Air Force at 3 yards or less on first down.
3. Explosives from Pack pass game: Air Force had one of the nation’s worst defenses a season ago and returned many of the starters from that unit. The area that was especially poor was the secondary as the Falcons ranked 133rd out of 136 teams in pass efficiency defense in 2025. While Nevada has run the ball 60 percent of the time this season, Wolf Pack head coach Jeff Choate has said he wants offensive coordinator Brett Bartolone to be more aggressive throwing the ball (that’s why he was hired, after all). And this is a good opponent to try and juice that passing attack against. Nevada will still try and establish the run, but it probably did too much last week against Middle Tennessee and could learn from that game and be more aggressive through the air. Nevada needs to get some explosives in its pass game.
Prediction
Air Force 31, Nevada 27: The Wolf Pack is 2-6 against the Falcons since moving to the MW in 2012, although the series has been closer than that. Of those eight matchups, six have been one-possession games with five decided by three points or fewer. These have generally been high-scoring games as well with the average contest tallying 72.3 points per game. That could require Nevada to hit the 30-point mark to win, which it has done just five times in Choate’s 28 games as the Wolf Pack’s head coach. It’s hard to overestimate the importance of this game for getting Nevada’s season back on track. And Air Force’s defense is vulnerable. Will the Wolf Pack take advantage? Season record: 0-3 (straight up); 0-3 (against the spread)
NSN director of operations Chris Murray also serves as a columnist and on-air host providing insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.