Mass. gas prices have risen dramatically. Here’s what to expect this fall.

Drivers across Massachusetts are facing rapidly rising gas prices, with prices averaging $4.39 a gallon statewide as of Thursday, according to AAA.

Gas prices have risen 13 cents per gallon within the last week, over 30 cents in a month, and more than $1.25 in a year. While fall is typically when gas prices drop, AAA Northeast spokesperson Mark Schieldrop says this fall is an “unusual” situation. 

“Prices are climbing in the last 30 days … and that’s unusual for this time of year,” he said. “This is generally when prices cool down with the end of the summer driving season. … Usually we’re on a slow and fairly steady descent toward the lowest prices of the year [in late winter].” 

Another concern, Schieldrop said, is the price of diesel. Currently diesel is at $6.24 a gallon in the state, which will add to the financial strain for Massachusetts residents. 

“Diesel prices really tell us what home heating oil prices are going to look like this year, and that’s going to be a big challenge for people as they’re figuring out their winter budget,” he said. “It’s not just [that] we’re paying more at the pump for gasoline, fuel and energy costs are pretty elevated.” 

What’s driving these rising prices? Schieldrop said it’s largely the war with Iran, now in its seventh month, which is causing global disruption and supply concerns. 

“We’re in a really tough spot because there doesn’t seem to be much indication that we’re going to have negotiations,” he said. “Diplomacy doesn’t seem to be in the headlines right now, and we’re seeing escalation and some spillover throughout the Middle East.” 

Because of this, Schieldrop said the demand for U.S. oil has also remained unusually high for this time of year, further contributing to the rising prices. 

“It’s really having an impact on output [in the Middle East], and as a result, we are becoming the replacement source for many countries around the world,” he said. “Generally this time of year demand cools down and there’s a little bit of surplus production and that helps boost inventories a little bit … right now all the domestic production is running at full bore, and every drop is basically being exported.” 

Schieldrop said prices will “level off at some point” and the price of oil is the best indicator. 

“It really depends on how long this war continues and how that disruption continues, and then what the price of oil is,” he said. “If we see oil prices start to go back down to the 90s and then the 80s, we’ll start to see prices cool off at the pump relatively quickly.” 

“Will we level off at $4.50, $4.60, or $4.45? I don’t know,” he added. “The market will find a place, but we’ve seen a lot of volatility too, and things can change on short notice, so it’s really hard to predict where things will go long term.”

Until then, Schieldrop said lower-income people will most feel the effects. 

“People are feeling it, especially people with less-fuel-efficient vehicles and people with lower incomes, because those are the people who are paying a much higher percentage of their overall budget,” he said. “When gas prices go up they feel the pain much more severely than for affluent folks.”