Misryoum breaks down Toronto’s odds, winning combinations, and the conditions tied to its 2026 NHL Draft Lottery hopes.
A decade-long playoff run has ended in Toronto, but the Maple Leafs’ focus now shifts to the NHL Draft Lottery with a chance to reshape their next few seasons.
Misryoum reports that the Maple Leafs enter the 2026 Draft Lottery with the fifth-best odds to win the No.. 1 pick, holding an 8.5% chance.. Because the lottery is conducted in stages. the outcome of the first draw directly influences the second. meaning Toronto’s path is not just about landing in the top spot once. but how that result reverberates through the full process.
For Toronto, the stakes also connect to roster-building realities. If a team ranked lower than the Maple Leafs wins the lottery and jumps ahead of them, Toronto would need to transfer its first-round pick to the Boston Bruins to complete the existing Brandon Carlo trade.
That clause matters because it can turn a potential “best-case” scenario into a more complicated one, depending on where the final order lands after the draws.
Ahead of the night’s results, the Maple Leafs’ specific route involves 85 unique four-digit combinations. Misryoum notes that if any of those combinations are drawn, Toronto would win one of the two lotteries, depending on how the event unfolds across its rounds.
While lottery night is never guaranteed, Toronto’s combination count and placement in the odds hierarchy leave the organization with legitimate reasons to stay hopeful. In a league where draft position can swing quickly, even a small percentage can feel massive once the balls start rolling.
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will be broadcast starting at 7 p.m. ET, and for the Maple Leafs, it represents more than a formality after a tough season finish. It is an opportunity to secure a foundational piece, or at the very least, to improve the leverage they carry into the next rebuild cycle.
Insight-wise. this is why lottery outcomes tend to define front offices: a single position can affect which players become available. how needs are prioritized. and how quickly a team can turn uncertainty into a clear direction.. In this context. Misryoum will be watching Toronto’s results closely. not only for what they win. but for how it changes what comes next.