A multi-day severe weather outbreak is building across the Plains and Upper Midwest, with a large area of the region under a Level 3 out of 5 risk for tornadoes and giant hail. Forecasters warn the worst window could arrive late afternoon into early evening, w
Strong tornadoes and giant hail are the focus of warnings as forecasters track a growing severe weather threat across the Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
The Storm Prediction Center placed a large portion of the Central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley under a level 3 out of 5 risk on its severe weather scale. The heightened threat zone includes eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota.
Forecasters say the atmosphere is expected to become primed for severe thunderstorms as warm. humid air surges northward through the day.. That influx of moisture, paired with strengthening winds higher in the atmosphere, is setting up conditions for rotating supercell thunderstorms.. Those storms can produce strong tornadoes and exceptionally large hail.
The greatest concern is expected during the late afternoon and early evening hours. when any storm that forms could rapidly intensify.. Meteorologists said the setup could support powerful supercells capable of producing hail large enough to cause significant damage. along with tornadoes that may become strong and long-lived.
As the evening progresses, the severe weather threat is expected to shift.. Forecasters said individual supercells are forecast to merge into a larger line of thunderstorms as a strengthening low-level jet develops after sunset.. Once storms organize into a squall line, the primary threat would move away from tornadoes toward widespread damaging winds.
That line of storms is expected to push eastward through the evening and overnight hours, with the potential for destructive wind gusts across parts of the Plains and Midwest before gradually weakening later tonight.
Farther south. meteorologists are also watching parts of western Oklahoma. the Texas Panhandle and Kansas near the dryline. where isolated severe thunderstorms may erupt late Sunday.. A cap of warm air aloft could limit how many storms develop. but forecasters warned that any storm that breaks through could quickly turn severe. producing massive hail and intense wind gusts.
In addition, parts of Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan could see isolated severe storms near a warm front later Sunday if enough sunshine breaks through lingering cloud cover and helps destabilize the atmosphere.
The pattern across the forecast is tied to timing and storm organization: forecasters point to late afternoon into early evening for rapidly intensifying supercells and strong. long-lived tornado potential. then describe a transition after sunset into a squall line driven by a strengthening low-level jet—shifting the main risk toward damaging winds as the line moves east overnight.
severe weather tornadoes giant hail Plains Central Plains Middle Missouri Valley Level 3 risk squall line damaging winds Storm Prediction Center dryline