Iran war – In eastern North Carolina, drought conditions have left some farmers already starting 2026 short on rainfall. Now, the war in Iran and the resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are driving up the cost of fertilizer inputs, squeezing ind
Rain has not come when it typically does in Windsor. North Carolina. leaving Charles Harden and other producers in Bertie County facing a slow start to 2026.. Harden. a ninth-generation farmer. estimated the area is down about 12 inches of rainfall in the first five months—an early sign. he said. that the year is beginning “in a drought. ” after “last year” ended the same way.
For his company. Clovergrass Produce. and its crop mix of soybeans. cucumbers. peanuts and corn—along with a herd of beef cattle—the conditions compound a separate pressure that is now hitting far beyond the farm gate.. Harden said agriculture in the United States is entering what he described as “harder” territory than at any time in the country’s history. even as he recalls family hardships through wars and economic collapses.
The financial squeeze has been building.. Independent producers. Harden said. have had to manage not only weather but also the shifting terms set by corporate farming operations and distributors.. He pointed to a difficult period for farmers across the country that followed President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and a subsequent agricultural trade war with China. along with a $12 billion relief package from the Trump administration that helped prevent what farmers feared could become a larger collapse.
Then the war environment changed again.. Trump joined Israel in war against Iran. a decision that. the report says. contributed to trade through the Strait of Hormuz “coming to a screeching halt.” That disruption has rippled through global supply chains for chemicals used in farming.. Prices for a range of materials—reported from plastics and helium to fertilizer products—have surged.. The pressure is especially acute in nitrogen-based inputs: about half of the world’s agricultural nitrogen-based urea fertilizer supply passes through the strait. alongside 30% of global ammonia exports.
As fertilizer chemicals became more expensive, the effect landed directly on farmers who already faced timing risks in the market.. The report says fertilizer-related chemicals such as phosphorus. nitrogen and ammonia have risen sharply since the start of the Iran war.. When the war began. fertilizer prices jumped from around $400 per ton in early February to nearly $600 per ton in early March. and the increase has continued.
This would strain agriculture in any year. Harden and others said. but 2026 is emerging from additional instability in how farmers manage purchases.. After market volatility in 2025. many farmers delayed buying their fertilizer for the new growing season. instead choosing to purchase closer to spring.. The result. the report says. is that fertilizer that had already become expensive was suddenly beyond reach for many producers even after the administration’s earlier bailout.
Farmers described a cash-flow problem as much as a production problem.. Harden explained that once money is available. it tends to go quickly to pay creditors—on the input side or to banks—because the bills cannot wait.. “We’re all trying to figure out these ways to pay people back when we’re not making money. ” he said. adding that additional funds would not necessarily translate into support for independent markets that generate domestic revenue.
A broader picture of inability to buy inputs is reflected in figures cited from the American Farm Bureau Federation.. An April report found that 70% of the nation’s farmers cannot afford the fertilizer needed to operate another year.. The report says the situation is particularly severe in the Southeastern United States. where only 19% of farmers and producers had pre-booked fertilizer shipments before the Iran war.. With deliveries and costs now shifting, 78% reported they could not afford all the fertilizer they need.
State farm leaders described the regional consequences as immediate and potentially lasting.. Mitt Walker. director of national affairs at the Alabama Farmers Federation. said producers are under “significant strain. ” describing how farmers may be forced into difficult decisions about input use. crop selection and long-term investment—choices that can affect yields. profitability and farm viability.
In Mississippi. Mike McCormick. president of the Mississippi Farm Bureau Federation. said he was grateful for potential help from the Trump administration but stressed that Mississippi farmers “need relief.” He said farmers want to raise a crop. sell it. and earn enough to support their families and cover costs. describing the current conditions as “very difficult.”
Industry figures also framed the fertilizer squeeze as unusually severe.. Josh Linville. vice president of fertilizer at Stone X. told Salon that farmers are “stuck in a real bad situation. ” arguing that the company has “never” seen fertilizer conditions as poor as they are now.. He attributed part of the escalation to the war in Iran, which he said has worsened the fertilizer situation.
Linville pointed to China as another link in the chain: he said China supplies 10% of the world’s fertilizer exports and clamped down on exports in February. then tightened restrictions further in April.. In his view, China might not reverse the ban until August 2026—after much of the planting season.
While Linville suggested short-term federal payments could help farmers survive the year, he said he is “not a big fan” of that approach. He argued the situation is government-driven, and because American farmers are being hit more than most industries, it would justify payments.
The Trump administration, for its part, says it is working to lower fertilizer costs.. When asked for comment. the Department of Agriculture pointed to a recent op-ed by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. who wrote that the Trump administration has taken steps to make fertilizer more affordable and accessible in the short term.. Rollins cited Trump’s 150-day suspension of the Jones Act. which she said would allow fertilizer shipments to move through the United States with more flexibility.
The op-ed also described Trump “urging” fertilizer companies to prioritize American buyers and allow farmers to lock in fertilizer prices through 2028.. Rollins further said the administration is rebuilding domestic production capacity for the long term. noting multiple projects expected to reach construction benchmarks in the coming year.. She said early estimates suggest those facilities will boost domestic production once operating. while emphasizing the benefits would not arrive “overnight.”
Linville said any increase in nitrogen production would be a “multi-year process. ” even if regulations are removed to accelerate domestic capacity.. He added that he believes Rollins’ goal of increasing nitrogen production by 30% would not flow primarily to farmers. but instead to industrial demand and other energy initiatives. including fuel for shipping vessels.
Rather than expanding output without competition, Linville argued for increasing market competition among fertilizer providers.. “If we can provide some sort of financing package for a new company to build a new nitrogen production facility. ” he said. “you increase supply” and also increase competition. which he described as a “win-win for the farmer.”
The report places the size of the fertilizer market in stark terms.. It describes fertilizer as a relatively small market. with North American producers including Nutrien. Mosaic and CF Industries accounting for more than $50 billion in global market capitalization.. The United States produces 53 million tons of fertilizer, the report says.
Sarah Carden. research and policy director at Farm Action. argued that the market is not operating fairly. saying major producers have worked to restrict and limit access for competitors.. The federal government has expressed concern about limited competition for years, the report says.. It notes that the Justice Department announced it is investigating whether fertilizer companies in the U.S.. engaged in years of price-fixing.. It also points to a separate lawsuit in Colorado accusing some of the biggest domestic producers of similar conduct.
Back in Windsor, Harden said the lack of competition is not theoretical—it is visible on his farm.. He said local fertilizer producers have been absorbed or eliminated, leaving farmers with few alternatives and little pricing power.. He said a company specializing in fertilizer that had been in place since 1939 is now gone.
The report also notes that the USDA has suggested farmers switch to less nitrogen-intensive crops such as soybeans and cut back on fertilizer usage.. Carden. who runs an organic vegetable farm. said that kind of pivot is difficult for many operations. arguing that reducing application rates risks yield losses.. She described the decision as a challenging trade-off between input costs and what those inputs are expected to produce.
For farmers, input costs do not end with chemicals.. Carden said another financial burden is diesel fuel, with freight and shipping costs rising alongside the price of diesel itself.. She said customers are not willing to absorb price increases, meaning farmers cannot simply pass costs downstream without consequences.
The report cites diesel price movements tracked by Brown University.. It says diesel costs have risen by 54.4% nationwide since the start of the Iran war. and that on May 14 the average cost per gallon was $5.67.. It adds that across many counties in the fertilizer-strapped Southeast, diesel costs have risen by more than 50%.
Trump has called for ending the federal gas tax to reduce prices for Americans, the report says, though it notes that doing so would come at the cost of cutting federal highway funds by billions of dollars.
Carden described limited short-term fixes and said she does not want additional relief payments to expand the burden on taxpayers.. Instead, she proposed using the Defense Production Act.. Invoked during the COVID-19 pandemic, she argued, it would make the chemicals needed for fertilizer a national defense priority.. In her account, that would give the federal government authority to monitor supply, prevent hoarding and stabilize the market.
Even so, farmers say they remain trapped between rising costs and shrinking flexibility.. Carden warned that if food prices go up, consumers spend less.. If fertilizer stays expensive, producers risk spending more money than they recover from what the season produces.. She said it is not a one-to-one ratio—yet for a farmer, there is little hope in the year ahead.
Harden echoed that sense of uncertainty and criticized how policymakers are approaching the issue.. He accused the Trump administration of speaking only with “corporate farmers. ” calling the president “narrow-minded.” Harden said there is no clear path forward. and he said his current stresses are “enormous. ” with 2026 shaping up to be worse than 2025.
For him, the strain extends beyond financial balance sheets. He said he cannot shut down when he goes home at night, worried about paying mounting bills, and described the constant physical and mental burden as having taken years off his body.
Personal costs are also part of the calculation.. The report says Harden and his wife welcomed their second child last year. a son who spent time in the NICU and was soon diagnosed with a severe genetic disorder that causes cerebral palsy.. Harden said medical expenses are never far from his mind. adding that the family’s concerns stack up alongside the farm’s obligations.
“I’m sitting here thinking, how am I gonna pay for my son?” he said. “I don’t even know if I can go buy groceries at the end of the year.” He argued that farmers are not asking to get rich—only to make a living.
Iran war fertilizer prices Strait of Hormuz trade disruption US farmer relief diesel fuel costs nitrogen urea supply American Farm Bureau 70% Jones Act fertilizer shipments