last tropical – Indonesia’s Puncak Jaya glaciers have already lost most of their ice, and remaining glaciers may vanish by 2030 amid warming and El Niño.
Indonesia’s last tropical glaciers are facing a countdown—and for the world watching glacier retreat, the warning signs are becoming hard to ignore.
The final ice remnants are located near Puncak Jaya in Papua, the highest peak in Southeast Asia.. Over roughly the past 44 years. the mountain has shed about 97% of its ice. and four glaciers on the peak have already disappeared.. Of what remains. two glaciers—the Carstensz glacier and the East Northwall Firn glacier—are expected to vanish by 2030. placing Indonesia alongside other countries that have already lost all their glaciers.
Researchers say global temperature rise is the direct driver of glacier melt. but the story becomes sharper in Indonesia because climate swings tied to El Niño repeatedly intensify the problem.. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes alternating La Niña and El Niño patterns that can reshape weather across regions.. In Indonesia. El Niño conditions have been linked to dramatically increased glacier melt. turning a fragile system even more hostile to ice survival.
During El Niño. Papua tends to become drier and warmer. which has two damaging effects at high elevations: less snowfall to replenish glacial ice and more melting once temperatures rise.. For a glacier that is already small. this combination can be especially devastating. because the balance between loss and replenishment tips faster than it can recover.
A geologist studying glacier and climate history. Mike Kaplan. said Papua’s El Niño conditions mean both reduced snow and enhanced melting. calling it a “death knell” for a small glacier.. He has also described tropical glaciers as a kind of early warning system—particularly for nations that start with only limited glacial ice—because small ice reserves can disappear sooner than larger systems elsewhere.
Monitoring and historical reconstruction point to how strongly ENSO affects the glaciers.. A climate researcher who led glacial monitoring at Indonesia’s meteorological. climatological and geophysical agency (BMKG). Donaldi Permana. described an additional mechanism that speeds the melt during warming.. As temperatures rise. the freezing level altitude increases. so precipitation that might otherwise fall as snow arrives more often as rain.. Rain on ice accelerates melting rather than feeding the glacier.
That link between warming and ENSO was visible during the 2015 to 2016 El Niño event. when Indonesia’s glaciers took a major hit.. Permana reported that the vertical thinning rate increased from roughly 1.0 meter per year to 5.3 meters per year—nearly a five-fold jump—during that period.. In practical terms, the glacier was losing ice far faster than it had in prior conditions.
To understand how these patterns have played out over time, Permana and his team analyzed ice cores recovered in 2010.. The 32-meter-long ice core helped reveal climate variability over the past half century. and the team found that ice decline over time shows a significant downward trend while El Niño events punctuate that decline.. Based on that pattern, they also modeled future ice loss.
Recent estimates indicate that the retreat is not just ongoing, but nearing a terminal stage.. Modeling and observations suggest the glaciers are heading toward complete disappearance.. In reported figures, the glacier area fell from about 19.3 square kilometers in 1850 to roughly 0.16–0.23 square kilometers by 2022 to 2024.. Permana also warned that some models suggest the glaciers could vanish within as little as the next year. depending on the strength of coming climate conditions.
Those warnings extend to specific timing: with a growing likelihood of a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026. the disappearance of Indonesia’s glaciers is expected to occur in 2026 to 2027.. The warning is stark partly because the glaciers’ fate may already be effectively sealed by the momentum of warming and by the way ENSO events disrupt any chance of recovery.
Kaplan emphasized that even if greenhouse gas emissions were magically halted today, the climate system would not instantly stop changing.. There is a delay built into how the planet responds. meaning temperatures can continue rising for years even after stabilization begins.. In that hypothetical scenario. he said warming could still continue until around 2030. and the glaciers would still likely face conditions too warm and too dry to persist—particularly if a strong El Niño occurs.
The loss of these glaciers is described not only as an environmental event, but also as a cultural one.. For many Indigenous Papuan communities. the glacier-covered summit is regarded as sacred. tied to spiritual identity and the presence of ancestors.. Wewin Wira Cornelis Wahid. an Indonesian graduate of a sustainability management program. said the glacier is more than a physical feature: its disappearance would represent an erosion of cultural heritage. not just a shift in the landscape.
He described the summit as a sacred space where ancestors reside and noted that the glaciers have long been locally known as “salju abadi. ” or eternal snow.. The rapid disappearance of something once thought permanent. Wahid said. reflects how vulnerable even deeply rooted features can be when climate change accelerates.
Scientists also argue that tropical glaciers may disappear first because they are smaller and exist in environments where seasonal cold is less persistent than at higher latitudes.. Longer, colder winters in higher latitudes can help preserve glaciers by slowing retreat.. But in the tropics. reduced ice volume can make glaciers less resilient—so their collapse can arrive sooner than many people expect.
In that sense, Kaplan’s warning frames the Indonesian case as a broader signal.. The Puncak Jaya glaciers are being treated as a “canary in the coal mine” for the rest of the world: if small tropical ice bodies can vanish under these conditions. other high-altitude glaciers may face a similar end.. Permana and his team describe these peaks as a warning sign and suggest it may only be a matter of time before other glaciers experience the same trajectory. with communities connected to them feeling the impacts when the ice disappears.
Puncak Jaya glaciers tropical glaciers El Niño climate ENSO ice loss BMKG glacial monitoring glacier disappearance Papua climate