Every year, talking heads from big banks pop up in the media to assess iPhone preorder demand at launch. This year, they’re underestimating the iPhone Duo bull in the china shop.
For years now, Apple’s September iPhone release includes a Pro and a non-Pro. There have been some exceptions previously, like the iPhone X. There has also been the iPhone Air, and this year, the iPhone Duo.
The iPhone X disrupted the talking head cycle on investor television. The finely-coiffed folks got on broadcast TV and lamented that the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus weren’t doing as well as the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus did, and it was a problem for Apple.
It wasn’t. The iPhone X launched a month later, and it blew the doors off the place. It wasn’t priced at a premium like the iPhone Duo, but it was discussed as a factor.
Once again, Apple is shaking things up. They know their market; they know the Pros update at release, and don’t generally wait.
That’s why they launched the iPhone Duo now. That’s why there’s no iPhone 18 non-Pro launching in September or October. For one year, at least, it’s all-Pro, and Pro market-plus with the iPhone Duo.
Historically speaking
Since the Pro launched, the cycle has been regular. Pros dominate through Christmas, with a late in the release year uptick in the non-Pro model or models.
That non-Pro model surges after Christmas. By February or March, that’s when the non-Pro models cross Pro demand. For the remainder of the release cycle, the non-Pro model is the main seller.
Before that, the Plus model outsold the non-Plus for the year, with the cross to non-Plus happening at about the same time.
This is where the analysts’ complaints come from. Year-over-year comparisons are worthless in the existing market. There are just too many changes springing out of Cupertino.
Predictable, until it isn’t.
The iPhone X broke that predictable cycle. The iPhone Duo and the expected spring launch of the non-Pro are breaking that now.
We get so many emails from analysts who are afraid of the longer time to sell-outs. More come in every day.
I keep CNBC on during the day to make sure I haven’t missed any major developments. Lately, analysts and commentators appearing on the network have repeatedly raised concerns about longer iPhone 18 Pro sellout times.
Effectively three Pro iPhone models this year
Two of the more than 10 that have come on TV haven’t said a word about the iPhone Duo in anything more than a passing word. Because of limited time on TV, or by design, I do not know.
On TV, it comes off as small print at the bottom of Apple’s tech specs. In notes to investors, those emails we’re getting, it is sometimes literally small print.
We don’t write about stock-outs of preorders on launch day to fuel or extinguish the stock market. Unlike Bloomberg writers, we do not get bonuses if we move the stock market. Unlike analysts, we do not get paid based on who invests because of what we tell you.
We do it the day of preorders to tell you, the user, what’s going on. We do it to tell you if you need to hurry, or not, to get your preorder done.
And, we told you why. We told you that iPhone Duo preorders not starting until October was a major factor.
Analysts have their own reasons. They get paid to forecast Apple’s finances for their contracted investors.
Telling those investors that Apple is doomed, or a variant thereof, because iPhone 18 Pro sell-outs are rarer than they were a year ago, or five, is ridiculous. Changing an AAPL price target or buy/sell/hold advice on this “data,” which is nowhere near that, is foolhardy.
Like with the iPhone X, new forces are at play that cannot be ignored. The iPhone Duo will capture enough of of the existing day-zero order Pro folks to matter, then that too will slow.
The iPhone 18 Pro will support 2026 holiday sales. The iPhone Duo will siphon Pros out of that, but not much in the way of holiday sales.
The iPhone 18 is expected to account for the majority of Apple’s iPhone sales after its release, continuing the pattern of previous generations. If current rumors are accurate, it will likely replace the iPhone 17 as Apple’s best-selling model of all time.
And I will say to you, officially, that my stance here is that earnings and stock market moves are the least exciting part of Apple. To the actual user of the product, they make no difference.
My stock advice? Buy low, sell high. Hold AAPL as long as you can. Simple as that, the rest is just noise.
And no, I have no AAPL. It wouldn’t be ethical.