NHL first-round – Misryoum breaks down three lower-seeded teams with credible paths to first-round NHL surprises—right where playoffs can swing fastest.
The first round is where the Stanley Cup can start to feel like a different sport entirely—fast, fragile, and full of matchups that flip on details.
Misryoum’s focus this postseason: three underdogs that could realistically pull off first-round upsets, not because they’re “supposed” to win, but because the games they’re being asked to play line up with what they do best.
Penguins vs.. Flyers: rush battles and the goaltending question
Philadelphia enters this matchup as a specialist at breaking down opponents’ rush.. After the Olympic break. the Flyers limited rush scoring chances and rush goals. including a stretch where they ranked near the top in expected-goals-against on a per-60 basis.. That matters because Pittsburgh’s scoring identity leans heavily on building offense off the rush—especially when the game opens up and the transition game gets loud.
For bettors and fans alike, the key swing is straightforward: if the Flyers keep narrowing the middle of the ice and taking away entries, Pittsburgh’s offensive talent is forced to work harder for cleaner looks. That’s where series “odds” become less destiny and more probability.
Goaltending could also decide whether this becomes an underdog story or a short-lived surprise.. Misryoum notes that Pittsburgh will carry a spotlight on Stuart Skinner after mixed postseason performances in his earlier NHL playoff history.. Even if a goalie doesn’t need to be perfect. they do need to be stable—especially in a matchup where Philadelphia’s defense is trying to make every shot count.
The human impact of games like these is simple: when a goalie steadies early. defenders relax. and scorers get more confident.. When a goalie struggles, everyone tightens up, and even elite skaters start hesitating.. In a one-series narrative, that psychological turn can be as meaningful as any tactical plan.
Golden Knights vs.. Utah: defense-first hockey meets goaltending variance
Under John Tortorella, Vegas has been playing a more defensive brand of hockey, including elite expected-goals-against performance since he took over. In that same window, the Golden Knights have looked steadier in net as well, with Carter Hart posting strong results after the coaching change.
But there’s a reason this series is framed as an upset opportunity for Utah anyway.. Vegas finished the regular season with weak goaltending metrics based on goals-saved-above-expected. and that creates a scenario where performance can “mean revert” under pressure.. If Hart’s performance drops toward earlier levels. Utah’s path becomes clearer: they don’t need to outshoot everyone—they need to survive. then punish the defensive mistakes that inevitably appear when teams press.
Utah’s roster profile supports that belief.. The club has been heavy on high-end shot creation from key zones and on skaters who can keep plays alive in half-spaces and net-front areas.. Clayton Keller’s slot-driving work is part of their offensive engine. while Dylan Guenther’s one-timer volume adds a specific scoring threat that can punish teams that collapse too late.. Nick Schmaltz’s effectiveness near the net is the kind of talent that pays off in playoffs. where rebounds and screening matter even more than raw shot totals.
Defensively. Utah also brings numbers that suggest discipline: their defensive-zone denial rate was among the best in the league. edging out Vegas in that particular department.. In practical terms. that means fewer second opportunities for the opponent—and in a playoff series. fewer opportunities often becomes “fewer chances to win.”
Hurricanes vs.. Ottawa: a matchup built on ice tilt and scoring friction
Misryoum sees that as the foundation of this series—but also the reason it could become a “stuck” matchup.. Carolina is capable of dominating play and creating shot attempts.. Yet when the postseason tightens, their scoring rate has fluctuated.. Under Rod Brind’Amour. Carolina has averaged a higher goals-per-game mark in series they’ve won. and a significantly lower number in series they’ve lost.. That isn’t just trivia—it’s a hint that the Hurricanes’ puck possession can be less decisive if their finishing doesn’t match their pressure.
Ottawa’s defensive approach gives them an avenue to slow that pressure into manageable stretches.. Their shutdown line. anchored by Selke Trophy-caliber candidates Michael Amadio and Shane Pinto. has the kind of even-strength expected-goals profile that fits playoff hockey: strong production relative to how much offensive-zone time it takes to get it.
The matchup becomes even more personal when you consider line chemistry and matchup assignments.. Ottawa’s defenders and forwards on the penalty-kill and in their suppression roles will likely focus on turning Carolina’s zone time into “pretty play” that doesn’t become goals.. That’s where depth matters—especially when a team like Carolina is trying to cash in on sustained offensive pressure.
Carolina’s top unit will test Ottawa’s structure. but the Senators’ goaltending could provide the safety valve that flips the script.. Linus Ullmark’s late-season form—backed by strong goals-above-expected totals over his final starts—suggests he’s peaking at the right time.. In playoff terms. that can be the difference between a series where momentum matters and a series where one mistake gets punished.
Why these upset paths matter more than “seed numbers”
And emotionally, that’s why these first rounds feel so different for fans.. Underdogs don’t just chase wins; they chase moments—one big save. one timely line change. one shift that ruins the favorite’s rhythm.. If these underdogs get those moments early. the series can turn quickly from “upset talk” into the kind of playoff narrative nobody can ignore.
For now, the question isn’t whether the underdogs can compete. It’s whether they can control the specific parts of the game that decide best-of-seven hockey—chances, finishing, and the goaltending swings that separate a clean win from a sudden collapse.
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