Elections forecaster shifts Florida’s gubernatorial race to a toss-up as Democrat David Jolly gains on Republican Byron Donalds

Florida’s gubernatorial race has moved into toss-up territory as Democrat David Jolly gains ground on Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, marking the latest sign that the contest to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis is tightening.

Florida race becomes a toss-up

Decision Desk HQ shifted its rating from “lean” Republican to a toss-up after weeks of polling showed Jolly closing the gap with Donalds. The elections forecaster said Donalds is now only “narrowly favored” to win.

The change came one week after Decision Desk HQ reported Donalds’ win probability had “slipped” seven points while Jolly had continued to “gain ground each week.” At the time, the outlet said the race was “nearing the range where it would become a toss-up.”

Decision Desk HQ called it on Wednesday, September 23, announcing that “Florida’s gubernatorial race has shifted into the toss-up column.”

The Florida gubernatorial race

Donalds cruised through the Republican primary with the endorsement of President Donald Trump, but he has struggled to build the kind of advantage Republicans have enjoyed in recent statewide Florida elections. Recent polling shows Donalds and Jolly in a statistical tie.

The increasingly competitive race comes four years after DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points in his 2022 reelection campaign. But several election forecasters have recently moved their ratings of the 2026 governor’s race toward Democrats, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and The Cook Political Report.

The shift adds another prominent forecast to a growing group of ratings suggesting Republicans face a more competitive statewide contest this fall.

Celebrating the shift

Jolly’s campaign celebrated Decision Desk HQ’s shift, calling it “the most significant shift in the race to date.”

“Change is here and we’re going to win!” Jolly — a former Republican congressman who is now running as a Democrat — wrote on social media after the announcement.

“The Florida governor’s race is officially a toss-up, but that won’t change our approach. David will continue to focus on reaching every voter to share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education and stopping data centers,” campaign senior adviser Mark Riddle said. “Our campaign has built a strong coalition, and that support will only grow as Floridians learn more about why David is the clear choice in this race.”