Forecasters warn an incoming El Niño could intensify wildfire risk, severe heatwaves, and flooding across multiple regions this year.
An incoming El Niño is already being linked to a stark rise in wildfire danger. severe heatwaves. and flooding risks later this year. raising concerns for regions still early in their seasonal threats.. The warning arrives as already-exceptional fire conditions have burned across large areas. setting a heightened backdrop for what forecasters expect to unfold.
This year. wildfires have scorched an area of land described as Alaska-sized on multiple continents. totaling more than half a million square miles.. The report said this is about 50 percent more than the average over the past 25 years. even though wildfire season has only begun in many parts of the world.
In West Africa and the Sahel region of North-Central Africa, the fires have been described as record-breaking. Almost all countries in the region experienced wildfires that broke previous benchmarks, underscoring how quickly dangerous conditions can escalate when weather patterns line up.
The severe early start is expected to matter because it arrives alongside a forecast El Niño. Forecasters characterized the combination as a driver of particularly severe conditions taking shape as the year progresses, rather than remaining a set of isolated extremes.
In East Asia, major fires that burned in “normally lusher regions,” including Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos, were tied to severe droughts. The report connected those drought conditions to human-caused climate change, explaining that warming can make ecosystems dry out faster when rainfall is low.
That link matters for risk planning, forecasters said, because the region is densely populated. When drought and heat intensify, fires can spread more easily and threaten communities at a time when local systems may already be stretched by the early-season impacts.
Looking forward, the report said a strong El Niño later this year can have a major effect on wildfire risk. It pointed to a higher likelihood of severe hot and dry conditions not only in Australia, but also in the northwestern United States and Canada, and across the Amazon rainforest.
The warning extends beyond fire. The report also predicted the broader picture for extreme weather, including severe heatwaves and flooding. In this framing, El Niño acts as a large-scale pattern that can reshape conditions across different climate zones, affecting multiple types of hazards.
Even so, forecasters urged people not to treat El Niño as a reason to panic. It was described as a natural event that comes and goes, while climate change was characterized as an ongoing trend that worsens over time unless emissions from fossil fuels are reduced.
A constructive response, the report said, is possible because existing knowledge and technology can reduce reliance on fossil fuels.. The implication is that while forecasts can help communities prepare for the next bout of extreme weather. long-term risk also depends on sustained action to slow the underlying drivers of intensifying heat and drought.
For emergency managers and residents alike, the message is to prepare for near-term hazards while keeping focus on long-term mitigation.. With wildfire danger already elevated in several regions and an El Niño expected to influence conditions later this year. planning for multiple disaster types could become essential. from smoke impacts and fire spread to heat stress and flood readiness.
For Misryoum, the report highlights a crucial intersection of seasonal forecasting and climate science: when warming-driven drying and large-scale climate swings reinforce each other, extremes can arrive earlier and hit harder than expected.
El Niño forecast wildfires risk extreme heatwaves flooding outlook drought and climate change Sahel wildfires