News outlets are running out of ways to explain the intensity of this year’s El Niño, but the basic facts are clear enough: this winter, the temperature of the water in the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to reach 3.38 degrees Celsius above average. While this may not sound like a lot, it will break all sea-surface temperature records to date and will very likely deliver unprecedented weather-related impacts around the world.
“This year, we are heading toward an exceptionally strong El Niño, with forecasts pointing to an extraordinary peak intensity,” said Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, an associate research scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) at the Columbia Climate School. Ehsan hosted the Climate School’s latest El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) briefing during NYC Climate Week.
ENSO is part of a naturally occurring climate pattern. Normally, trade winds blow westward along the equator, pushing warm surface water from South America toward Asia. But sometimes the trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to “slosh” back toward South America. The result is unusually warm ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific—a phenomenon known as El Niño.
With the pattern known as La Niña, which frequently follows an El Niño year, stronger-than-usual trade winds push more warm water toward Asia, with impacts that are, in some areas, the opposite of what is predicted with El Niño.
According to models from the Climate School’s Center for Climate Systems Research and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), there’s a nearly 100% chance the high-intensity event continues through the spring of 2027.
CCSR/IRI has produced monthly ENSO forecasts through a collaborative international effort that integrates ENSO forecasts from leading prediction centers worldwide. For the current event, the signal from these models is remarkably consistent. “All 22 of the models we used indicate that we are headed toward a very strong El Niño, from September through February 2027,” Ehsan said. “A majority of them reach or exceed 3°C, pointing to an exceptionally strong event.”
“We’ve never seen a forecast like [this one] in terms of certainty. This sort of magnitude is unprecedented.”
– Andrew W. Robertson, senior research scientist, CCSR
Based on the observed June to August sea surface temperature of 2.03 degrees above average, the estimate for September to November is 3.19 degrees. The peak of 3.38 degrees is projected to occur sometime between November and January. Compare that with the 1997 El Niño event, one of the most powerful to date, which reached a peak of 2.37 degrees (all Celsius).
“The first IRI forecast was issued in 1997, but we’ve never seen a forecast like the one we have now in terms of certainty,” said Andrew W. Robertson, a senior research scientist at CCSR. “This sort of magnitude is also unprecedented.”
“This Niño is clearly ultra strong and more than a degree warmer than we have seen in past historical value,” Ehsan said.
El Niño also reshapes global precipitation patterns, Ehsan said. “According to the models, we expect to see less precipitation in the northern part of South America, Central America, South Africa and Southeast Asia, which can lead to drought conditions. At the same time, there’ll be more rain in lower South America, the South of the United States, East Africa, the Middle East and the United Kingdom.”
The consequences reach well beyond weather. Past strong El Niño events have triggered crop failures and food price spikes in drought-hit regions, devastating floods along parts of the western coasts of South America and the U.S., collapsed anchovy fisheries, and mass coral bleaching as marine heat waves spread. The 1997–98 event, which peaked nearly a full degree cooler than what is now forecast, was linked to an estimated 23,000 deaths and tens of billions of dollars in damages worldwide.
With all of this looming, there is an increased responsibility to take action to get ahead of likely extreme weather events. “Global organizations such as the Red Cross are integrating forecast information into early and anticipatory action with the goal to decrease impact,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior researcher at the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, told State of the Planet. “It’s critical to take action now as the peak of El Nino, and associated impacts, is approaching.”
El Niño also adds heat to a planet already warming: global temperatures typically peak several months after an El Niño does, meaning 2027 could set a new annual record.
“These are fluctuations on seasonal timescales that are large and predictable, and with forecasts that are accurate, people can act on those forecasts and reach for drought-resistant crops, for example,” Robertson said.
You can read the full forecast at
Alexia Massoud is a climate and science journalism student at the Columbia Journalism School. She previously covered environmental politics in Brazil.