Despite President Donald Trump’s record-low popularity, Democrats’ lead over Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms is more modest than during his first midterm in 2018

Democrats‘ advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot heading into the midterm elections trails the lead they held before Donald Trump‘s first midterm in 2018, even as multiple polls show the president’s approval rating near the lowest levels of his political career.

Democrats enter election season with a smaller cushion than 2018

The election season began in earnest after Labor Day, with Democrats increasingly confident about retaking the House majority. Polling shows Trump’s popularity has declined since he returned to office in January 2025, amid voter concerns over the economy, the cost of living and the unpopular military conflict with Iran.

Democratic strategists believe dissatisfaction with Trump could translate into victories in competitive districts, but the party’s current polling edge is narrower than it was in 2018.

RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate showed Democrats with a 5.8-point lead on the generic ballot. On the same date in 2018, Democrats led by 7.8 points, according to data cited in the original analysis of this cycle.

Shawn Donahue, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek that voters being “generally more sour” on the Democratic Party helps explain the smaller advantage. He said the voters most likely to decide the election are those who disapprove of Trump but also hold an unfavorable view of Democrats.

How individual pollsters compare with 2018

Several pollsters that tracked the generic ballot in both cycles show a similar pattern of a narrower Democratic lead.

Morning Consult’s weekly tracking, cited by The New York Times, showed Democrats ahead by 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent. In the same survey conducted September 6-9, 2018, among 1,988 respondents, Democrats led by 10 points, 45 percent to 35 percent.

YouGov and The Economist found Democrats ahead by 5 points, 36 percent to 31 percent, among 1,592 adults. In their August 26-28, 2018, survey of 1,500 adults, Democrats led by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent.

Ipsos and Reuters recorded a 5-point Democratic lead, 43 percent to 38 percent, among 924 registered voters. In a 2018 poll of 2,012 registered voters, Democrats held a 9-point lead, 44 percent to 35 percent.

Redistricting has shrunk the battleground

Democrats face a smaller map of competitive seats after a mid-decade redistricting fight that has largely benefited Republicans. Legislators in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas redrew competitive and Democratic-leaning districts to favor the GOP, while Democrats gained a handful of seats in California and Utah that only partially offset those changes.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected Missouri’s request to intervene and block a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that found a Republican-drawn congressional map could not be used in this year’s midterm election.

Donahue told Newsweek that Republicans are positioned for near-automatic pickups in two Texas seats, one Louisiana seat and one Tennessee seat, along with several additional opportunities.

He said redistricting in 2021 and 2022, separate from this year’s mid-decade effort, had already moved many seats, including some Republican-held districts, out of competitive territory. Republicans in Texas, Indiana and Oklahoma also redrew suburban districts that had become competitive back into solidly Republican territory, leaving those seats largely off the map.

Democrats are targeting deep-red districts

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has expanded its Red-to-Blue program to include districts that backed Trump by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.

The target list includes Arizona’s 2nd District, Colorado’s 5th District, Florida’s 13th District, Kentucky’s 6th District, Minnesota’s 1st District and South Carolina’s 1st District.

Donahue described these as “reach seats” that Democrats believe could become competitive if the political environment continues to favor them. He said a key indicator will be whether party committees and allied super PACs begin buying television ads in places such as Lexington, Kentucky and Charleston, South Carolina.

Trump’s unpopularity has not solved Democrats’ image problem

Trump’s approval rating has fallen to some of the lowest points of his second term, but Democrats have struggled to turn his weakness into a stronger image for their own party.

The Marquette Law School poll, which surveyed 1,076 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, found Trump underwater by 20 points, with 60 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving of his performance. Congressional Democrats fared worse, with 66 percent disapproving and 34 percent approving.

Donahue told Newsweek that many self-identified Democrats do not particularly like their own party. Moderates view it as too liberal, while progressives see it as too establishment-oriented.

That divide has fueled criticism of Democratic leadership in Washington, D.C., from the party’s progressive wing, which has pushed for a more combative approach to the second Trump administration.

House and Senate math heading into November

Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 House majority, meaning a modest Democratic swing could flip control of the chamber.

The House popular vote has shifted repeatedly over the past decade. Republicans won it by roughly 1 point in 2016 while holding a 241-194 majority. Democrats won it by about 8.6 points in 2018 while holding a 235-199 majority, with one vacancy after the midterms.

Democrats won the popular vote by about 3.1 points in 2020 while holding a 222-213 majority. Republicans won it by about 2.7 points in 2022 while holding a 222-213 majority and by about 2.6 points in 2024 while holding a 220-215 majority.

The Senate presents a steeper challenge for Democrats, who must gain four seats to secure a majority because Vice President J.D. Vance would break a 50-50 tie in Republicans’ favor. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.

Democrats are defending seats in Georgia and Michigan, both states Trump carried in 2024. They are also targeting Republican-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024 and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points.

Republican-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, are rated as tossups by the Cook Political Report.

Prediction markets showed a close race for Senate control. Kalshi gave Republicans a 53 percent chance of holding the chamber, while Polymarket gave Democrats a 53 percent chance of winning it.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political and current-event outcomes, producing probability estimates based on real-money wagers. Those estimates shift as traders respond to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They reflect trader sentiment at a given moment rather than a guaranteed forecast.

What comes next

Polling will remain a central focus through Election Day as Democratic and Republican candidates make their closing arguments to voters.

The economy, inflation and the ongoing conflict involving Iran are expected to remain central issues in the final months of the campaign.