Dennis Ross warns Iran may target Gulf oil sites as Trump blockade tightens pressure
A former Obama administration adviser, Dennis Ross, laid out a “worst-case scenario” for the Middle East on Sunday, saying Iran could escalate by targeting key energy facilities in Gulf states as President Donald Trump’s blockade effort tightens pressure on the regime.
Ross argued that if Iran cannot export oil and cannot generate revenue, the response could shift toward striking “the most sensitive targets” across the Gulf as a way to force the U.S. to ease its posture. “The worst-case scenario… is they decide, ‘Ok, if we can’t export our oil now and can’t generate revenue, we will attack the most sensitive targets among the Gulf states. We’ll go after their oil facilities as a way of putting pressure back on the United States to ease this on us,’” Ross said Sunday.
He also said the U.S. should be ready for the possibility of Iranian retaliation aimed at vulnerable, high-value energy infrastructure across Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. In his framing, those kinds of strikes could temporarily disrupt oil production and raise the risk that the conflict spreads further, unless deterrence is strong and credible. Ross warned the situation could “spin out of control” without enough capability to prevent it.
Ross said the regime would likely stop short of destroying its own facilities on Kharg Island, calling the export hub something Iran “need[s] to be able to hold.” He described the Trump administration’s focus on Kharg Island as a major campaign theme in the region. For a moment, the room tone around his remarks felt like it shifted from analysis to warning—people leaned in, and somewhere off to the side there was that small, constant sound of air conditioning that always shows up when someone is talking too long.
Ross further suggested the blockade is meant as an alternative to seizing Kharg Island itself. “They’ll go after everything that’s in the Gulf states…,” he said, adding, “Our blockading is an alternative to us seizing Kharg Island. We can seize it, but then our forces there would be quite vulnerable. This is a much smarter move than seizing Kharg Island.” His point wasn’t only about possible targets, but also about how U.S. choices might affect where Iran directs pressure.
Trump announced an “all-or-nothing” blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday morning, saying during a Fox News exclusive interview that every country would either be allowed full access through the waterway or none at all, with no exceptions for allies. “We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade,” he told “Sunday Morning Futures.” The decision came after unsuccessful peace talks with Iranian regime leaders in Pakistan over the weekend—peace efforts that, according to Misryoum reporting, did not produce a breakthrough and instead left the U.S. moving toward tighter pressure.