Democrat James Talarico’s odds of beating Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race reach new highs
Democratic hopeful James Talarico‘s chances of defeating Republican Ken Paxton in the closely watched Texas Senate race have climbed to new highs across several prediction markets and forecasting models, according to data reviewed.
Talarico, a Texas state representative, is challenging Paxton, the state attorney general who defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. Republicans have held the Senate seat continuously since 1994 and no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since then.
Fresh poll and market data show a tightening race
An AARP-commissioned survey showed Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 44 percent among likely Texas voters. Conducted jointly by Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research, the poll surveyed 895 likely voters statewide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, according to OddsShopper.
Because that margin applies to each candidate’s individual estimate, the uncertainty around the four-point gap is larger. The result therefore falls within the poll’s statistical margin. The same survey showed voters 50 and older favoring Paxton 53 percent to 40 percent, contrasting with the overall result.
On Kalshi, the “Texas Senate winner” contract priced Talarico’s chances at 51 percent and Paxton’s at 49 percent, according to OddsShopper. Polymarket’s race listing showed Talarico’s price rising to 54 percent following recent polling that gave him a narrow lead. It also noted that combined outside spending in the race had topped $80 million.
Separately, an Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey of Texas likely voters found the race essentially tied, with 47 percent supporting Paxton and 46 percent supporting Talarico. Five percent were undecided and 2 percent backed another candidate.
“The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
RealClearPolitics’ Texas Senate polling average showed Talarico ahead by 2.7 points, with the site’s snapshot putting him at 47.4 percent and Paxton at 44.7 percent. RealClearPolitics rated the contest a toss-up.
Not every forecast shows the same trajectory. Pollsmax gave Paxton a 77.9 percent chance of winning, projecting him to receive 52.5 percent of the vote to Talarico’s 47.6 percent, a 4.9-point margin. The site rated the race Lean Republican.
Pollsmax said its projection is based on 100,000 simulations incorporating polling data and race fundamentals, including Texas’ Republican baseline.
Why the numbers have moved
Polymarket’s race description attributed Talarico’s rising market price to consolidation of the Democratic base, support from independents and moderates and strong fundraising. It credited Paxton’s position to Republican base consolidation following his primary victory over Cornyn.
The listing also noted that Paxton’s legal and ethical controversies have remained central to Democratic attacks. Trump’s endorsement and rally appearance for Paxton at the Republican midterm convention boosted Paxton’s campaign but did not reverse Talarico’s gains in polling and market pricing.
Why the Texas Senate race matters
Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1994 and has long been a Republican stronghold. A Talarico victory would give Democrats a pickup on a Senate map that has generally been considered challenging for the party.
The race is also part of Democrats’ broader effort to regain the Senate majority. Democrats would need to flip four seats while holding their current seats to take control of the chamber.
Money has also poured into the contest. Talarico has built a significant fundraising advantage over Paxton, while Republican-aligned groups, including organizations tied to President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, have spent heavily to defend the seat.